First off, interesting article series (and very well-researched). However, while Luongo at times seems to play better when facing more shots, I think in the long run it tends to average out and become pretty random ('06-'07 shows a fairly strong pattern even month-to-month though).
Just a note related to the quoted paragraphs about the change in production from this past season vs. the '06-'07 campaign:
So sure enough, when the big trade to Vancouver was made, the stars were aligned and the Stanley Cup playoffs were poised to become a reality. This was the season that really proved Luongo’s dominance in the crease, as his MVP-quality play down the stretch pushed his game to another level. Luongo played in a career-high 76 games but only saw an average of 28.5 shots per game, tying his second-lowest career mark. He responded with a career-low 2.29 goals against average and a stellar .921 save percentage. Ultimately, the prophecy was fulfilled and Luongo’s performance in the first-round series win against Dallas became the true pinnacle of his career.
But oh how different things look just over a year later. With 47 wins during the regular season and a succulent draw from the post-season mug, Luongo struggled to finish with 35 wins last season and his playoff experience became nothing more than a midsummer’s night mirage. Luongo played in fewer games (73 down from 76) and faced fewer shots (2,069 down from 2,169), yet his goals against average went up from 2.29 to 2.38 and his save percentage (.921 to .917) went down. Once again, when Luongo saw less rubber than the previous season, he seemed to have a decline in production statistically and mentally.After March 21 of last year, with 7 games left in the 2007-08 season, Luongo's GAA was 2.22 (which if he'd held it would have been a new career low) and his SV% was .922 (even better than in '06-'07). In those last 7 games from March 25 to April 5, his GAA rose by 0.16 and his SV% dropped by .005. His average shots against per 60 min game over that stretch was 30.56 (a little above the season avg).
Admittedly this is a small sample of games to make the claim that the shots/game isn't a major factor. Yet this sample is enough to account for the drop in his numbers since the previous year. The only real factor that seems to correlate to his poor play during this period is the birth of his daughter on March 27 (recall people giving him a hard time about family planning not optimized for a playoff push
).
Just some food for thought.
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