Prospect Report

I want to say I love what Dobber and his team do with for all of us Hockey addicts.

Something I'd love to see in the future has to do with prospect upsides.

In the Rookie package, you have a number of factors worked into upside and the percentage of getting there.

What I would find extremely valuable is a more concrete number of points we can realistically expect during a players peak years.

Lets face it most players based on their upside percentage will not reach those numbers.

If you could give us your best guess about what numbers a player will see would be great.

I know this isn't an exact science, and there are many factors, but if a guys upside is 80 points, what is his realistic point range.

Just a thought.

mbrown wrote:
I want to say I love what Dobber and his team do with for all of us Hockey addicts.

Something I'd love to see in the future has to do with prospect upsides.

In the Rookie package, you have a number of factors worked into upside and the percentage of getting there.

What I would find extremely valuable is a more concrete number of points we can realistically expect during a players peak years.

Lets face it most players based on their upside percentage will not reach those numbers.

If you could give us your best guess about what numbers a player will see would be great.

I know this isn't an exact science, and there are many factors, but if a guys upside is 80 points, what is his realistic point range.

Just a thought.

I've for the past few years held issue with that sort of thing when it comes to fantasy guides.
I've been compiling a database of players and both types of upside over the past year or so, but right now it's only the players I've either targeted or hold on one of my teams.

It changes often, but I figure I'll give it as a christmas(/holiday) present to anyone who wants it in the community, because once it's done it (1) is really easy and quick to update, and (2) will be a good foundation for everyone to keep track of exactly what they think of each player in the league, and whomever is coming up. *shrug*

Not that I'm a pro analyst or projector. I just find it fun and useful, and everyone knows second opinions are a good thing.

Realistic upside isn't easy to project, but it's always worth a shot. It's good to quickly scan through players and see who the boom-bust players are, and who's safe.

I'd love to take a look at that database, lockedge

Lockedge... you had me at "anyone who wants it"

Myself, if I saw an upside I would do two things:
1) assume 5% of the players get there
2) immediately ballpark in my head a "realistic" number.

The "realistic" number is easy - just roll back by 15%. My mind is always thinking logic and numbers and to me that's just an immediate assumption to make. If you are given a best-case scenario, roll it back a little and get the likely scenario. Am I wrong?
A 100-point upside is a likely 85-point player. A 60-point upside is a likely 51-point player.

Is it weird that I just assume that's how everyone thinks?

Your assumption is right about me, Dobber

Hey Dobber

Thanks for the insights to your thought process. That makes sense now that you spell it out.

You do the math all the time, but for those of us who don't we wouldn't assume 15% drop.

Thanks for sharing.

Dobber:

In your prospects report, what would you think about having an expected time before a player is making a meaningful contribution in the NHL.

In our league, we only have our prospects for 3 years before they are eligible to be drafted by another GM. This makes it a challenge drafting a guy like Van Riemsdyk. Although he could be a great NHL player one day, it won't be until he is 24-27 years old.

Or am I just asking too much.