Gap between Luongo/Rinne in W/GAA/SV% league?

[duducks]

Hey,
was curious as to how big of a gap you see between Rinne and Luongo next season, given my scoring settings (Wins, GAA, SV% - H2H weekly league w/ 2 goalies).

Before last season, I would've called Luongo a lock for top 3, and Rinne in the 15-20 range. I know it's closer than that now, but how close?

[GoalieGuild]

I think they are totally neck-and-neck right now. It will probably come down to games played. And with Cory Schneider "guaranteed" (by Vancouver GM) to play close to 20 games, there's a good chance Rask could play a few more games.

I don't think your going to see much of a difference between the two on the surface. It will come down to how each team plays in front of their goalie and how each goalie handles the ebbs and flows, ups and downs of their season. It could go either way.

Luongo has the advantage of being much more experienced and with a new goalie coach that will force him to work much harder in practice, I think he will have a much, much better season than last year. Compared to what he's capable of doing, I would call Luongo's season very below average. He was able to win gold for Team Canada, but I can't remember him ever fighting the puck as much as he did last year.

And like I've said so many times, he's swayed easily by bodies and traffic in front. It's kind of a joke that a guy with his size would be pushed around so easily, but he's kind of floppy and wobbly in that regard. If he can improve in that area of the game and stop letting players push him deeper into his crease, Luongo's turnaround statistically will be exceptional.

[duducks]

Sorry, in the 1st paragraph you said 'Rask'. Was that a typo and you meant Rinne, or did you read my question as Rask? Judging by you saying they'll be near equal, I'm going to guess you read my question as Rask, because I can't see Rinne being that close. I wish I had Rask

[GoalieGuild]

Oh wow that is crazy I actually was talking about Rask!!! ARGH! Let me go back and edit it!

[duducks]

Hey Justin, I know you've been busy with your articles, but I also know you wouldn't knowingly leave a question left unanswered

[GoalieGuild]

Well there's a first time for everything buddy................


ohhhh just kidding haha Yeah sorry oversight on my behalf I will get to this later today =) Thanks for the patience!

[GoalieGuild]

Originally Posted by duducks

Hey,
was curious as to how big of a gap you see between Rinne and Luongo next season, given my scoring settings (Wins, GAA, SV% - H2H weekly league w/ 2 goalies).

Before last season, I would've called Luongo a lock for top 3, and Rinne in the 15-20 range. I know it's closer than that now, but how close?

Okay sorry again about the delay and messup on this!

RINNE: 32-16-5 / .911 / 2.53 / 7SO
LUONGO: 40-22-4 / .913 / 2.57 / 4SO

Rinne had 58% of his games (33 total) last season end with a .900 save percentage or higher.
Luongo had 65% of his games (43 total) last season end with a .900 save percentage or higher.

So last season the only real difference between the two came down to games played. Luongo's experience and a better team in front of him probably lends a major hand to him having that 65% efficiency compared to Rinne's 58% efficiency. To be honest, I don't see a big difference in any other area of the game, except when you start talking about technique and size and stuff like that.

Now when looking at how this will play out this season, I expect them to have very similar save percentages and goals against averages. I would say both goalies are going to post better numbers for a variety of different reasons.

Rinne has more experience and will play more games, Luongo is much less stressed out and will slowly get used to working with a new goalie coach. I think Luongo might be like a lot of other veteran goalies in the first 4-5 games and struggle a little bit. Rinne is the type of goalie that could catch fire in pre-season and win his first 7-8 starts, he's that kind of a streaky goalie.

It's kind of like how nobody thought Anderson was going to win 30 games last season. I was one of the very few that knew if Anderson had a strong October, it was easily attainable. That's exactly what happened. I have the same feelings with Rinne heading into the season (different reasonings of course, but same confidence). If Rinne comes out with a strong first 5-10 games, he could very easily win 40 games.

For Luongo, like I said I think he's mediocre in October, but as the season goes on, he could get better and better and more comfortable in a less-stressed out season. 40 wins sounds like a very reachable number of wins for him. Statistically I think he will improve just a little bit, but I would say that Rinne has a better chance of improving his stats more than Luongo does.

Overall, you have two goalies that are in very different stages of their career, but all signs are pointing to them posting very, very elite fantasy numbers. Close to 40 wins, around a 2.45 or 2.50 GAA, around a .915 save percentage and around 5 shutouts. I see very little difference between the two.

I will give the slight edge to Luongo. Experience is everything when you are a workhorse and I like Keith Ballard's ability to give Luongo a little more space in front of his crease. I don't think Luongo will be as frustrated mentally and so that gives him the edge over Rinne.

But remember, Rinne is prone to being super streaky. One big winning streak or one big losing streak will mean the difference between being over Luongo or under him in the fantasy output department.

[Sandwiches1123]

I think there will be a slightly bigger gap than The Goalie Guild predicts. I think Vancouver's defensive core has improved (although who knows with Salo) and the Preds have yet again let guys leave because of self-imposed cap issues.

Overall I agree that Rinne gets extremely streaky: Lunqvist-style. Rinne could very well prove to have better numbers than this year but I just don't see it with the constant turnover of good players in Nashville.

The other factor to consider is who the Pred's play this year. Obviously there is an onus on the division, followed by conference. In their division, Columbus is probably the only team that will trend downwards next year, although a bounce back season from Mason could change things; St. Louis has definitely improved with the addition of Halak; Chicago has declined slightly but that may not matter as the major parts are still in place; and Detroit will probably see better production from a more experienced Jimmy Howard. Nashville looks as though they have stayed the course or declined slightly with the loss of Hamhuis and Arnott.

[Crazynuck]

Originally Posted by Sandwiches1123

I think there will be a slightly bigger gap than The Goalie Guild predicts. I think Vancouver's defensive core has improved (although who knows with Salo) and the Preds have yet again let guys leave because of self-imposed cap issues.

Overall I agree that Rinne gets extremely streaky: Lunqvist-style. Rinne could very well prove to have better numbers than this year but I just don't see it with the constant turnover of good players in Nashville.

The other factor to consider is who the Pred's play this year. Obviously there is an onus on the division, followed by conference. In their division, Columbus is probably the only team that will trend downwards next year, although a bounce back season from Mason could change things; St. Louis has definitely improved with the addition of Halak; Chicago has declined slightly but that may not matter as the major parts are still in place; and Detroit will probably see better production from a more experienced Jimmy Howard. Nashville looks as though they have stayed the course or declined slightly with the loss of Hamhuis and Arnott.

I'm gonna have to agree that there is a big difference between Rinne and Luongo. Not so much in terms of GAA and SV% but in wins. Nashville struggles to score and with Arnott gone and Hamhuis in Vancouver it is gonna be a tough year for Nashville. The division is also gonna play a big part. I see Rinne in the same situation as Vokoun, great stats aside from wins.