Capped: Team By Team Buy and Sell – Part Four

Alexander MacLean

2017-08-31

It’s the last day of August, and I have already lost count of the number of mock drafts I have taken part in. It’s never too early to be getting ready for the season, so it’s a good thing we’re already more than halfway through our buy and sell series.

This week we’re covering Nashville through Ottawa, and listing one player that you should be trying to get onto your fantasy team, as well as one player you should be trying to get off of your fantasy team.

 

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Nashville Predators

Buy: Calle Jarnkrok

Cap Hit: $2,000,000 with five years remaining

I have been parading Calle Jarnkrok’s contract since he signed it. With the success of the Predators in the postseason, and GM David Poile signing a few more bargain contracts, there is a little more air-time to the Nashville Cap situation. The other thing that gets a lot of focus in Nashville is the first forward line. However, past the first line, the forward group is a little fuzzy. Between the incumbents and the newcomers, there are more than a handful of guys that could fill out a solid second line.

Jarnkrok is my bet to be one of those players on the second line. Whether that is as a centre or a winger is anyone’s guess though. Jarnkrok’s numbers the past two seasons are fairly consistent, and moving into his fourth full NHL season, a jump in production would not be surprising. Add in the possible faceoff wins from a wing eligible player (he had 452 last season) plus decent shot rates, and there is good value to be found here.

 

Sell: Nick Bonino

Cap Hit: $4,100,000 with three years remaining

*Note: Nick Bonino played the 2016-2017 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins

Nick Bonino hasn’t really ever been a second line player, and the $4.1 million dollar contract may give him the first shot at it, but it’s not too much to be a third line centre. Mike Fisher played a bit of a defensive specialist in more of a third line centre role last season, and Bonino seems to fill those shoes fairly well. In a league that counts hits and blocks, there is certainly good value to Bonino, but trying to sell him to someone as a 50 point player in Nashville would be ideal, since he likely won’t eclipse the 40 point mark by much, if at all. He has only done it once in his career, all the way back in 2013-14.

 

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New Jersey Devils

Buy: Pavel Zacha

Cap Hit: $894,167 with two years remaining

The injury to number-1 centre Travis Zajac opens up a top-six centre slot that should be filled by Zacha. With reinforcements on the wings having come in this season as well in the form of Marcus Johansen, Drew Stafford, and some internal growth, Zacha should be well insulated, and can build upon his mediocre season last year. The sixth overall pick from 2015 will be given every chance to succeed, and there really isn’t a better option for a cap league buy-low in the fantasy wasteland New Jersey.

 

Sell: Marcus Johansson

Cap Hit: $4,583,333 with four years remaining

Marcus Johnasson went from being a part of one of the most fearsome power plays in the league to one of the least. There is also no guarantee that he meshes as well in the New Jersey system. Additionally, Johansson shot over 19% last season, which certainly won’t be repeated without Nicklas Backstrom feeding him passes. When everything is taken into account, Johansson should help out the Devils, but the team change won’t help his fantasy performance. It would be best trying to sell before he hits the ice and it becomes even more evident.

 

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New York Islanders

Buy: Anders Lee

Cap Hit: $3,750,000 with two years remaining

Anders Lee was a talented multi-sport athlete back in college, and could have turned pro in as many as three different sports. It seems as though he made a good choice with hockey, and this may be that last chance to buy him before he fully jumps onto the fantasy radar. As John Tavares’ main wingman at the end of last season, it is likely that he keeps his spot, with newcomer Jordan Eberle filling in on the right side. Lee provides both points upside for his cost, as well as peripheral value with shot and hit volumes. There are few better all around packages on the wing for less than $4 million a season.

 

Sell: The Goaltenders (Jaroslav Halak & Thomas Greiss)

Cap Hit: Halak – $4,500,000 with one year remaining

                Greiss – $3,333,333 with three years remaining

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At the best of times, goaltending tandems are not fun to own. On a non-playoff team who lost their best defensive defenceman, and stands to be working through story lines all season about their top player leaving, the upside is hard to see. It is anyone’s guess which of the two will have more starts by the end of the year, and with a lucky guess you may have a half-decent goalie. That chance is a tough one to take when there are better options out there, because the NYI goalie position is not going to be a good one statistically, no matter who is actually tending the crease. Find a team in need of a goalie, and sell hard here. Even if it means you need to buy a goalie elsewhere, it will be worth it in the long run.

 

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New York Rangers

Buy: Kevin Hayes

Cap Hit: $2,600,000 with one year remaining.

The New York Rangers are a difficult team to fully comprehend at this point, as they just have so many good (but not all-star) pieces, and there isn’t really a hint as to how the depth chart will shake out to start the season. As a result, the best bet for our buy from the Rangers is to find who will benefit the most from Derek Stepan leaving. After scoring over a 50-point pace last season, there is no reason Hayes can’t do so again. In a contract year (also his fourth year in the NHL) big things can be expected from the 25-year-old who is only being paid $2.6 million this season. A short-term buy, but if he signs a big contract next summer, you can probably still flip him for more than you paid to acquire him this summer anyways.

 

Sell: Ryan McDonagh

Cap Hit: $4,700,000 with two years remaining.

Ryan McDonagh isn’t likely to average over three minutes per game on the power play now that Kevin Shattenkirk has been brought in. McDonagh will likely take a step back into a more defensively responsible role with time on the second power-play unit. Offensively, his point numbers, and maybe his shot numbers will be dropping. His peripherals should otherwise stay about the same, but expect 30-35 points instead of the 42 from last season. With Brady Skjei also developing, and other options like Anthony DeAngelo & Nick Holden possibly eating into his production, it is possible McDonagh’s stats drop even lower.

 

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Ottawa Senators

Buy: Mike Hoffman

Cap Hit: $5,187,500 with four years remaining

After Hoffman lived up to his new contract with a 61 point showing in 74 games last season, expecting him to build on that would be asking too much. Keeping pace though is entirely likely, and with a healthy season, that should put him around 65 points, 30 goals, 240 shots, and 30 powerplay points. If you can find me a league where that isn’t valuable, then I would eat my shirt to make the point for that league to be folded. Hoffman produces across the board, and should provide excellent consistent value at his cost for the next few years.

 

Sell: Craig Anderson

Cap Hit: $4,200,000 with one year remaining

After Craig Anderson’s incredible and emotional season last year, one has to wonder how much he has left in the tank. Either way, expecting close to last year’s production would be foolish even if Anderson wasn’t 36-years-old. This sell makes sense as long as goalies have decent value in your league, and someone is needy enough at the position to pay for the 2017 spring version of Craig Anderson. Anderson has also fluctuated for the last eight years, having a season with a save percentage above .920, and then following it up with one lower than .920. He is due for one of his down years for those of you that put more stock than you should in those kinds of trends.

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All cap related info is courtesy of Capfriendly. All player data was pulled from Frozen Pool.

 

Check out the rest of the Capped series here.

 

Thanks for reading. I would be curious to hear if you have any buy/sell candidates on the above teams, and why.

As always, you can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean where I post some of my other smaller musings that don’t make it into the articles.  

One Comment

  1. David Elkin 2017-08-31 at 10:29

    Craig Anderson may indeed be on his last legs. You have to wonder how good Ottawa will be this year. I do see a let down

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