Top 10 Fourth Year Breakout Candidates

Tom Collins

2017-06-26

Despite the NHL not making many trades this past weekend doesn’t mean that you need to stay quiet in your fantasy league.

Some good buy-low candidates would be picking up players that could be in line for a fourth-season breakout. Many fantasy GMs subscribe to the theory of the fourth-year player breaking out. You could either sell low, or maybe even sell high if you can convince your fellow GM of the theory.

Below you’ll find 10 guys ready to have their fourth-season breakout campaign. Keep in mind this doesn’t mean they’ll be the best fourth-year players in the league. Leon Draisaitl will outpoint all of them but doesn’t count for this list as he’s already had his breakout seasons.

 

10. Victor Rask

Much like another Hurricane who is ranked higher on this list, Rask will be one of the young players that will benefit from having a much better team in Carolina. But Rask’s biggest problem is consistency. The past two campaigns, he’s started off hot and petered out as the season went along. This past season, Rask started with 26 points in his first 32 games and finished with 19 points in his last 50. He’ll eventually figure it out and this year could be the year.

 

9. Markus Granlund

Granlund had a much-better-than anticipated first full season with the Canucks this year. His 19 goals and 32 points in 69 games is a huge improvement over the 31 points he had in his first 102 games. His ice time jumped up almost three and a half minutes per game and eventually he wound up on the second line with Bo Horvat. The Canucks have to realize they need to put their trust in their young talent more than their veterans. When the team figures that out, Granlund will be one to benefit.

 

8. Curtis Lazar

Lazar struggled in Ottawa, averaging 8:49 ice time in 33 games in the nation’s capital. It didn’t improve with the Flames after the deal as he only saw four games. But expect that ice time to shoot up significantly in 2017-18 as Lazar will be given plenty of opportunity to succeed. The Flames gave up a second-round pick and then protected Lazar in the expansion draft. They wouldn’t do all that for a guy that will struggle for ice time.

 

7. Nathan Beaulieu

Beaulieu finds himself in a much better situation in Buffalo than he did in Montreal and could be a sneaky good option next year. The former first-round draft pick had 28 points this past year despite being fifth among Canadiens defensemen in average ice time per game and fourth in average power play time. He’s going to a Sabres team where he should be able to easily get ice time and lots of power play opportunity.

 

6. Teuvo Teravainen

Many people are already predicting a huge breakout season for Carolina next year, and we’re not even at the free agency stage yet. Teravainen should play a large role in that improvement. This year, he improved his goals, points, power-play points, and shots from the previous year while getting an extra minute per game. Look for those trends to continue.

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5. Matt Dumba

Dumba has improved his goals, assists, points, and penalty minute totals in every single season of his still relatively short career so far. The best aspect is the fact his ice time went up 3:30 this past year. He’s scored 12 power play points in each of the last two years. If he can up that even a little, with the overall improvement in play, he could threaten for 50 points. 

 

4. Andre Burakovsky

Much of Burakovsky’s success will depend on his linemates. Although he only had six postseason points, he showed great chemistry in the playoffs with Nicklas Backstrom for a couple of games against Pittsburgh. If he can get a more regular rotation spot with Backstrom, expect Burakovsky to break out in a big way. But he does need three things: Stay healthy, take more shots and get a lot more ice time than the 12:59 he averaged this year.

 

3. Aaron Ekblad

It may seem weird to have Ekblad on this list considering how many poolies fell in love with him after an excellent rookie season in 2014-15. But he hasn’t been very good fantasy-wise since then, and fell to 21 points — including only eight power play points — in 68 games this past campaign. But there’s a few things to like about Ekblad going into next year. Florida dealt with a ton of injuries this year, including to Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Roberto Luongo and Ekblad himself. A healthy lineup will help Ekblad, who takes a ton of shots and is on the Panthers top power play unit. I like him to crack the 50-point barrier.

 

2. Kevin Hayes

He’s been mildly successful so far with two 45-plus point seasons so far. But this year is his best bet for a breakout season. His ice time jumped up three minutes per game this past year, so he’s earning the trust of coach Alain Vigneault. Then there’s the fact that centre Derek Stepan was traded to Arizona, letting Hayes slide into the number two centre role, and hopefully getting him some more power play time.

 

1. Jonathan Drouin

Although Drouin had 53 points this past season, he still hasn’t had his great breakout season. At least not one that would be telling of a third-overall draft pick that had plenty of upside. Drouin had a tough few years in Tampa Bay, mostly of his own making. Now he’ll get a chance to be on Montreal’s top line, will get lots of ice time, and plenty of power play opportunity. 

One Comment

  1. MarkRM16 2017-06-26 at 20:24

    Where will Lazar play? They don’t need him at C and there’s plenty of competition on the wing. Unless Brouwer is used on the 3rd line, traded, or bought-out, I don’t see where he’d fit. Were he shipped to Montreal to play C, he’d have the opportunity to show what he could do, but I can’t see that happening with the Flames unless a key forward suffers a long term injury.

    I think Dumba could breakout this year, too, if the Wild give him all the PP icetime he can handle, but last season there were 5 D that averaged 1:00+ on the PP. Unless Boudreau decides to give that time to Dumba instead, I doubt he’ll increase his scoring by more than a few points. Were he playing on a team like New Jersey desperate for a scoring D, he’d have the opportunity he needs.

    I had hoped that Burakovsky would be given the chance to do some damage, but the Caps re-signing Oshie reduces the odds.

    Ekblad’s concussion plus Florida’s idiotic moves makes even a rebound far from a sure thing.

    What could hinder Drouin’s production is the Habs’ lack of a No.1 C. He could assume that role himself and has some great wingers available, but he hasn’t played C for a while so he’d need to re-accustom himself to playing at that position. If they’re able to sign or trade for a talented C, that changes things “bigly”.

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