Top-10 Value Losses from Offseason Moves

Tom Collins

2017-07-24

Fantasy hockey general managers can sometimes be a fickle sort.

No matter how great a player may have been, we oftentimes look at the downside of player movements. Not necessarily who a trade or a free agent signing helps, but also who it hurts.

Below are 10 players who has seen their fantasy values decrease because of offseason moves. Some of it is deserved. Some not so much.

For the record, just like last week’s list of top 10 value risers, I’m not including any players that are now in Vegas as it’s too tough to gauge a player’s value on a team that didn’t exist last year.

 

10. Alex Nedeljkovic

This one is more of a long-term impact. I had originally thought Nedeljkovic would get a few starts this year and be ready to take over the Hurricanes’ starting netminder in 2018-19. But Carolina’s trading of Scott Darling puts a big crimp in my thoughts as Darling is expected to be the Hurricane’s number one goaltender for a while. Darling is signed to a four-year deal, which means Nedeljkovic doesn’t have a clear path to being a starting goalie for a while . It didn’t help that Nedeljkovic had a tough 2016-17 in the AHL and ECHL. Still, it does not bode well for the 21-year-old goalie that he now has to be better than Darling instead of Cam Ward to be Carolina’s next top goalie.

 

9. Louis Domingue

It appeared as if Domingue was going to be the goalie of the future for the Coyotes as recently as last summer. But Domingue struggled this past year and couldn’t steal the number one role when Mike Smith was injured. Then the Coyotes traded Smith for unrestricted free agent Chad Johnson, and a few days later, traded for Antti Raanta. Johnson signed with Buffalo but it appears Raanta will be Arizona’s number one guy. Instead of being the future of the Coyotes, Domingue now looks like an also-ran.

 

8. Radek Faksa

Faksa looked prime for a top-six role a few short weeks ago. Valeri Nichushkin was going to spend another year in the KHL, the Stars decided not to renew the contracts of Patrick Sharp and Jiri Hudler and Cody Eakin was selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. It looked like plenty of opportunity for Faksa. Then Dallas signed Martin Hanzal and Alexander Radulov, and all of a sudden, the top six lines were filled again with Faksa on the outside looking in.

 

7. Connor Hellebuyck

Like Domingue, Hellebuyck is another goalie that was expected to be the future of his franchise. But Hellebuyck struggled so badly this past season that the Jets were forced to play Ondrej Pavelec. Then the Jets signed Steve Mason to a two-year deal in the offseason. It’s obvious that Winnipeg doesn’t trust Hellebuyck to be the number one goaltender anytime soon.

 

6. Kari Lehtonen

Despite the fact that Lehtonen hasn’t had an overall successful fantasy season since 2011-12, he was still a darling among some poolies simply because of the team in front of him. He piled up the wins in some years because Dallas could outscore teams on most nights, but his GAA and SV% were below average. Now Lehtonen is a backup thanks to the trade and signing of Ben Bishop. Lehtonen is going to see a massive decrease in games played and shouldn’t even be considered a handcuff option.

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5. Jori Lehtera

No one is hurt more by Lehtera’s move to Philly than Lehtera. Even though his power-play time and overall time on ice has decreased in each of the last few years, Lehtera saw a regular shift with superstar Vladimir Tarasenko. Despite his elite linemate, Lehtera continuously had a declining points-per-game average. Now he goes to Philly where there are no allegiances and no past history with an elite teammate. He could easily be a third-line player for the majority of the season.

 

4. Marcus Johansson

Many expect a decline for Johansson, and it will be his power play points that could suffer the most. He goes from playing on a top-five power play squad to a bottom-10 team. Johansson had 19 man-advantage points this past season, feeding off teammates Nicklas Backstrom (35 PPP) and Alexander Ovechkin (26). He won’t have that same luxury in New Jersey, where he’ll be lining up with Kyle Palmieri and Taylor Hall and no real power-play quarterback defenseman.

 

3. Jordan Eberle

Eberle struggled this past season despite playing a regular shift with Connor McDavid. Now some fantasy general managers are expecting Eberle to have chemistry with John Tavares. Didn’t the Islanders go through this last year with Andrew Ladd? There is no guarantee that Eberle will mesh with Tavares. Plus, there’s no guarantee that Tavares re-signs with the Islanders by next summer. In a year’s time, Eberle might be the most offensively-talented player on the Islanders and that’s a scary thought.

 

2. Artemi Panarin

It will be interesting to see if Panarin brought out the best in Patrick Kane or vice-versa. My guess in on the latter. But even if Panarin can get to 70 points again with the Columbus Blue Jackets, it doesn’t change the fact that his value has taken a hit this summer. With many fantasy general managers in one-year league looking at linemates when drafting, the fact that Panarin won’t be with Kane is sure to push him further down draft lists.

 

1. Brady Skjei

It’s was a double whammy for Skjei this offseason. Despite scoring 39 points as a rookie with very little power play time, the Rangers made two big moves that brought in extra defensemen that could push Skjei further down the lineup. The first was the trade of Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta to Arizona that saw defenseman Anthony DeAngelo and the seventh overall pick go back to the Rangers. Then New York signed Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year deal. The Rangers also have top prospect Ryan Graves in their farm system. It’s quite possible that Skjei could be the team’s fifth defenseman within a couple of years. 

12 Comments

  1. Gary Barnes 2017-07-24 at 15:54

    I think claiming Eberle got a “regular shift” with McDavid last season is a stretch. He really did not get that much time with Connor and was also juggled on/off the top PP unit. On the Island, he may be able to better stick with Tavares and get consistent top PP time. He may blow another opportunity, but I think the dysfunction in EDM hurt Eberle more than anyone not using the initials of RNH.

    • MarkRM16 2017-07-24 at 15:58

      Maroon surprising everybody with his scoring, plus RNH’s bad year definitely hurt Eberle’s scoring opportunities and, you’re right, he never had any stability. A change of scenery should make a difference.

    • Karl Paquette 2017-07-26 at 04:22

      Agree- hell correct his shooting percebtage and everyones going to forget real fast about his supposed “commitment/compete” issues. Classic poolie/canadian market over reaction. If this happened in Florida wed all be salivating for the buy low candidate he is. Oilers needed cap- Isles needed to appease Tavs- net result will see Eberle back at 25-30 goals with upside. Eaiest bounceback preddiction ever made…

  2. MarkRM16 2017-07-24 at 15:55

    Johansson’s a tough one to predict because he’ll be playing with less talented players on the Devils’ powerplay, but should see a big increase in powerplay time and may shoot the puck more, too. It may be his ES points that suffer the most.

    Skjei is even worse off than you say because the Rangers also added DeAngelo, a powerplay specialist that should partner with Shattenkirk on the 1st unit. Hell, he had 8 PPP in 39 games with the Coyotes (0.21), so he could put up better numbers with the Rangers. McDonagh and Skjei would be an awesome pair on the 2nd powerplay, though. Last year’s numbers may have been an aberration for Skjei anyways given his mediocre career numbers in the AHL and amateur leagues. Last year he posted 7 PPP in 92 games (0.08). DeAngelo is clearly a much more gifted offensive player.

    • Karl Paquette 2017-07-26 at 04:20

      Been reading a lot on MJ- his 18.6 shooting percentage is pretty nuts, I know he typically scores high in this regard- 12-14 (picky shooter)- but any dip back down to the realm of normalcy could be devestating for him. He basically averages like 100 sogs per season. Hes a great real world talent but Im waaay skeptical about any player who averahes less than 2 sog/per game- he averaged labout one and a half last year which is a high water mark for him. Good cerebral player on any team (makes other shooters more dangerous) but Id really be careful about your expectations in fantasy…

      • MarkRM16 2017-07-26 at 15:17

        I never have and never will draft Johansson because his peripherals are poor. He’d be an okay mid-round pick in a points-only league, though.

  3. MarkRM16 2017-07-24 at 16:05

    Panarin should experience a drop in his numbers next year for 3 reasons:
    1st – Columbus’ powerplay is likely to come back down to earth now that Gagner is gone.
    2nd – His center will be either Wennberg or Dubinsky. Not great options even compared to Anisimov.
    3rd – Foligno and Atkinson are both good wingers, but they’re obviously nowhere close to Kane, hurting his ES numbers.

    • Dobber 2017-07-24 at 17:03

      I agree with the premise, but Panarin upgrades the power play. A slight upgrade to Gagner ;) but even if they went with two D on the point, I think Jones is an upgrade to Gagner too.
      Wennberg is and will be far better than Anisimov. Just scratching the surface.
      If Atkinson gets to play with Panarin (and I doubt it because I want that so badly so I know Torts won’t do it) then I wonder if Panarin can make Atkinson a superstar. He definitely turned Kane from an 85 point guy to a 100-point guy

      • MarkRM16 2017-07-26 at 15:34

        Perhaps I’ve been underestimating Wennberg. He certainly has a good opportunity to succeed given his undisputed status as #1 C, but he needs to take way more SOG than he has so far.
        I’m a bit worried that Atkinson and Panarin playing together at ES might not work as well as you hope it would (but for your sake, I hope I’m wrong). Kane is one of the most talented wingers in the game and developed instant chemistry with Panarin, while Atkinson isn’t as gifted as Kane and it’s possible that they won’t play well on the same line. Add Torts to the mix, and who knows what might happen? BTW, how fast a skater is Atkinson? If he’s a few strides slower than Kane, that could also make a difference.

    • Captain Obvious 2017-07-25 at 05:29

      1) Columbus’ PP already came back down to earth last year. In the end, it was only the 12th best, that’s average. And Panarin is better than Gagner.
      2) Anisimov is unable to get more than 45 pts on a line with two players who combine for roughly 160. How is he better than Wennberg (59 pts)??
      3) Before 2015, Kane had only one season with more than 73 pts (88, a long time ago in 2010). Then Panarin came along and Kane exploded for 106.

      • MarkRM16 2017-07-26 at 15:46

        Of course Panarin is better than Gagner, but he was a key player on the Jackets’ powerplay. I have to be honest, I didn’t realize that their powerplay dropped off that much. I knew it had come back down to earth after that amazing run they went on, but expected it to be way higher in the rankings. Got me there!
        Had Anisimov stayed healthy, he was on pace for 57 points, while Wennberg had 61. Not a huge difference.
        Kane had scored at a point-per-game or more 5 times before Panarin arrived. Panarin definitely played a big part in Kane’s career year in 2015-2016, but both saw a reduction in their numbers last year due to fewer PPP.

  4. Chris Liggio 2017-07-24 at 16:25

    Skjei will def be screwed in regards to PP time but he is too good overall to be knocked down the depth chart only McDonagh is a better/equal skater to Brady and that kid shuts down top opposition already.

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