Is Clarke MacArthur good enough to score 60 points this season?

I was in Vancouver for work earlier this week and my good friend (and colleague) Rick, who also happens to be a fantasy hockey junkie, asked me who I would be writing about this week. I told him I had no idea and did what any writer would do – I asked him for some suggestions. Rick then threw out the name Clarke MacArthur as he had just picked MacArthur up off the wire in his eight team league. I knew MacArthur was off to a decent start this season and entertained the idea, but really I thought to myself 'MacArthur, typical third liner, standard 40 point player.' To be honest, I wasn't so sure of the idea.

When I got home later that evening, I started poking around Frozen Pool. A look at MacArthur's career statistics supported my initial "forty point player" assumption, but there it was jumping out at me – MacArthur's 2010-2011 regular season stat line.

2010-2011 Regular Season

MacArthur was on fire in 2010-2011. He played a full 82 game season, putting up 21 goals and 41 assists – good enough for 39^th overall in NHL scoring that year. MacArthur also posted a relatively neutral plus/minus and chipped in with 19 PPP. The left winger had an impressive showing on the Leafs second line and had great chemistry with Mikhail Grabovski. A quick look at MacArthur's most frequent line combinations shows that the two played together close to 90% of the time at even strength that season.

Even Strength Line Combinations (2010-2011)

A closer look at MacArthur's production in 2010-2011 shows that 57 of his 62 points were scored with Grabovski on the ice. Despite the eventual decline over the following two seasons for both players, there is no question that the two had great chemistry a few years ago.

Welcome to Ottawa

Fast forward through two mediocre "forty-point" campaigns as a Maple Leaf (43 points in 73 games in 2011-12; 20 points in 40 games in 2012-13) and MacArthur now finds himself in a very similar situation. After hitting the market this summer as an unrestricted free agent, MacArthur signed a two year deal with Ottawa and he has already established himself as a staple on the Senators second line.

Here is a look at MacArthur's statistics so far this season.

2013-2014 Regular Season

MacArthur has 17 points in 23 games so far this season, including five power play points and two game winning goals. We have just passed the quarter point of the NHL season and it may be too early to bank on consistent production from MacArthur, but right now he is on a 61 point pace and looks great on a line with Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan. For those looking for another positive sign – MacArthur is also on pace for 182 SOG this year, which would be well above his career high 154 SOG that he posted during his 62 point campaign in Toronto. MacArthur is also receiving over 18 minutes per game and seems to be getting significant power play time as he is averaging 2:45 per game PP TOI this season. Perhaps we are in for a career year from MacArthur. The statistics and his current opportunity suggest it is a strong possibility.

Below is breakdown of MacArthur's most frequent line combinations and point production this season. Pay particular attention to the correlation in his production playing alongside Kyle Turris.

MacArthur has been on the ice with Turris for over 80% of his shifts this season.

Turris has been on the ice for 14 of MacArthur's 17 points this season.

MacArthur has proven he belongs in the team's top six and as long as he stays there we should expect 60 points from him this season. The fact that both Turris (20 points in 24 games) and Ryan (22 points in 24 games) are off to hot starts only helps MacArthur's cause. In fact, the MacArthur-Turris-Ryan line is one of the hottest trios in the NHL this year. Going into this season, few would have predicted that MacArthur would be part of one of the five most productive lines in the league, sandwiched between the trios of Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis and Sedin-Sedin-Kesler.

Courtesy of the Frozen Pool Report Generator here is a look at where they rank overall in terms of line production across the entire league this season.

Final Forensic Notes

MacArthur scored 168 points in 163 games with the Rochester Americans in three different stints in the AHL between 2005 and 2008. The offensive upside is there for a potential 65-70 point NHL season.

Coach Paul MacLean seems comfortable with the MacArthur-Turris-Ryan line and has kept the trio together throughout the first quarter of the season. We shouldn't expect changes anytime soon unless injuries force MacLean to shuffle his line combinations.

MacArthur is a decent option in cap leagues if he maintains his current pace. At 3.25m/year, there are worse options if you are need of a depth winger.

MacArthur is a career minus player. He currently sits at plus 11 this season.

MacArthur already has 22 PIM this season and is easily on pace to surpass his career high 56 PIM from 2008-2009. At his current pace MacArthur would accumulate 78 PIM this season.

Expect MacArthur to play 80 games and finish with 19 goals, 39 assists, 58 points, 170 SOG, 70 PIM, and plus/minus rating of plus five.

Previously in FrozenPool Forensics:

David Desharnais

Nail Yakupov