Forensics: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Anthony Lancione

2014-12-05

EvgenyKuznetsov

 

What to make of Kuznetsov 40 games into his NHL career.

 

 

Much has been made out of the early season struggles by Evgeny Kuznetsov. The young, Russian centreman has certainly struggled for the Washington Capitals, with only two goals to his name thus far and only one since October 29th! In fact, in his introduction to the National Hockey League in the spring of 2014, he had already trumped that with three markers (not that much more impressive), in six less games.

 

Strength

Line Combination

24.78%

EV

20 BROUWER,TROY – 90 JOHANSSON,MARCUS – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY

10.68%

EV

92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 46 LATTA,MICHAEL – 87 O’BRIEN,LIAM

7.81%

EV

83 BEAGLE,JAY – 25 CHIMERA,JASON – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY

6.64%

EV

67 BROWN,CHRIS – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 87 O’BRIEN,LIAM

4.67%

EV

16 FEHR,ERIC – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 46 LATTA,MICHAEL

4.4%

PP

65 BURAKOVSKY,ANDRE – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 42 WARD,JOEL

4.31%

EV

83 BEAGLE,JAY – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 46 LATTA,MICHAEL

3.59%

EV

25 CHIMERA,JASON – 16 FEHR,ERIC – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY

3.59%

EV

16 FEHR,ERIC – 92 KUZNETSOV,EVGENY – 87 O’BRIEN,LIAM

 

Clearly, the lack of regular talent lined up with, has been a detriment to Kuznetsov's generally uninspired play. His ice time has been a reflection of his play, skating an average of 11:30/game this season, down from a TOI of 13:28 in his debut campaign.

 

At 6'0" Kuznetsov really has yet to fill out that frame, listed at only 172 lbs. pointing out a need for him to really make a more concerted effort to bulk up more, adding strength to his game. On the faceoff dot, I only counted 6 nights where he won more draws than he lost. Is that due to a slow reaction time or simply getting muscled out of the dot? Either way, a 43.5% faceoff percentage on the season is terrible. I don't understand why he's not tried out full time on the wing in the interim. He's simply not effective in the faceoff battle at this stage in the game, with his current lack of physical prowess.

 

It doesn't help that his shooting percentage has dropped off a fair bit from 2013-14 (From a half-decent 13.6% rate all the way down to a 7.6% clip this season. One would think his luck will improve in that area. Although it's far from a certainty as last season he was getting set up by Backstrom with clearer attempts on next than he's now being afforded by Marcus Johansson. So perhaps, luck wasn't the factor, he may well have just been getting off higher quality shots.

 

In any event, Kuznetsov is still officially a rookie, so it's hard to really get on his back, but it may also be time to begin tempering expectations for him. It's not impossible of course, for him to still reach superstardom, but surely seems much less likely than once though. There's plenty of time for maturation yet, but perhaps mere 'stardom' is the upside to be targeted from this point forward, as elite status no longer seems achievable.

 

It doesn't appear he will be supplanting Tom Wilson on the top line anytime soon, so the big guns will continue to not be of service unless occasional power play minutes are tried out with him. Second unit minutes would be the place to start. Don't give up on him yet, though. I can't possibly see this year as his breakout campaign, but it may yet arrive in 2015-16 or even 2016-17 (for the more traditional fourth year breakout.)

 

Stash him in keeper or dynasty leagues of any kind of his manager has already had enough of him. If not, do whatever you can to BUY LOW. This is the time to do it. It's a risky proposition to add him off waivers in one year leagues at this point, although I admit I have just jumped on the opportunity in one league in place of an equally disappointing Alexander Semin.

 

(Give Anthony Lancione a follow on Twitter @Anthisdaman)

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