Frozen Forensics: Patric Hornqvist

by Cam Robinson on June 10, 2016 | (4 Comments)

Frozen Pool Forensics Dives Into Patric Hornqvist's Production and Future

****

Taken 230th overall in 2005 – a mere 229 spots after line mate Sidney Crosby had his name called that weekend – Patric Hornqvist has taken the path less travelled in his quest to become a champion. The pugnacious Swede plays a throw-back style game; he grinds the corners, goes to the front of the net with little regard for personal safety, and his cheeky smile is often the source of intense disdain by those on the receiving end.

Players of that ilk are rarely interesting to fantasy GM’s, especially those in points-only leagues. Well, Hornqvist is a player that won’t ever win an Art Ross trophy, but he’s the type of complimentary forward you round out your lineup with, and gives you a chance to win the big prize.

Situation and opportunity. Two vital ingredients to any secondary scorer; and the 2010 Olympian has those two slots locked up. Setting up on the right side of the best player on the planet and making his home in the blue paint on one of the league’s most potent power plays, Hornqvist has the opportunity to rack up points simply through his hard work, but he can beat you with skill too.

Spending the first six seasons of his career as part of the offensively-challenged Nashville Predators, it was often thought that his consistent production of 45-55 points would be supersized if given the opportunity to skate next to a more talented cast. After producing a career high point-per-game rate (0.8) in his first season with Pittsburgh – 51 points in 64 games, expectations were through the roof when an offseason trade brought Phil Kessel to town and even more talent overflowed from the Pens cup.

But as we learn time and time again, expectations aren’t always what they seem. Hornqvist and the Pens stumbled out of the gate, but with a quick swap of coaches, a few new bodies, and some flip-flopping of wingers, things started to shape up for Hornqvist and the Pens. Here’s a look at Hornqvist’s quarterly summaries using Dobber’s Player Profile

First Quarter Summary

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

20

4

4

8

0.40

33

-4

12

56

49

0

3

0

13

03:12

51.7

1.1

16:09

26.8

 

 

 

Second Quarter Summary

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

20

4

4

8

0.40

33

0

8

69

44

2

3

0

11

02:48

57.6

0.3

15:38

25.6

 

 

 

Third Quarter Summary

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

18

4

13

17

0.94

77

9

4

62

31

2

4

0

13

03:23

65.9

0.8

18:20

30.1

 

 

 

Fourth Quarter Summary

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

24

10

8

18

0.75

62

11

12

70

36

5

5

0

17

02:50

55.5

0.0

17:20

28.5

 

 

As we can see, the first half was not too generous for the hard-working winger. His 16 points in 40 games pro-rates out to a 33-point season. However, from January 1st onwards – two weeks after Sullivan was hired – Hornqvist produced 36 points in 45 games or a 66-point pace, matching his play from an injured shorted ’14-15 campaign. He also provided his team with just under two hits per contest (1.95) and his shots on goal this past season represented a five year high.

 

Top 10 Point Categories  PIT Jan. 1st - Apr. 12th

Rank

Name

Pos

Age

Yrs

Team

GR

GP

EV

PP

SH

PPG

Total

1

CROSBY,SIDNEY

C

28

9

PIT

 

44

45

13

0

1.32

58

2

LETANG,KRISTOPHER

D

29

8

PIT

 

43

29

16

3

1.12

48

3

KESSEL,PHIL

C

28

8

PIT

 

45

26

12

0

0.84

38

4

HORNQVIST,PATRIC

R

29

6

PIT

 

45

27

9

0

0.80

36

5

HAGELIN,CARL

L

27

3

PIT

 

37

25

0

2

0.73

27

6

KUNITZ,CHRIS

L

36

10

PIT

 

43

25

2

0

0.63

27

7

MALKIN,EVGENI

C

29

8

PIT

 

20

11

13

0

1.20

24

8

CULLEN,MATT

C

39

16

PIT

 

45

17

0

5

0.49

22

9

BONINO,NICK

C

28

5

PIT

 

28

18

1

1

0.71

20

10

DALEY,TREVOR

D

32

10

PIT

 

45

14

5

0

0.42

19

                           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Through 22 playoff games this spring, Hornqvist has found the back of the net eight times while producing 12 total points. His shot rate has remained consistent with his regular season totals – about three shots per game, while seeing 73.3 percent of his team’s ice on the man advantage. His production doesn’t jump off the page, but his scoring chances have been prevalent.

According to War-on-ice, Hornqvist leads the Penguins in Individual High-Danger Scoring Chances (iHSC) this spring with 28. He’s followed by Bryan Rust with 24 and Kessel with 23. His 10.4 shooting percentage is right in line with his norm, but for the chances he’s received, there could have been plenty more scribbles on the score sheet.

So what type of production can we expect from the top line winger heading into 2016-17? Assuming the band doesn’t break up over the summer, Hornqvist will be the main staple next to Crosby and with the new structure to their game at both even-strength and on the power play, owners should be able to count on a near 0.8 point-per-game output that Hornqvist sustained during the 2016 half of last season and his total the year before.

Sixty-six points is nothing to sneeze at, and for a player who will be receiving passes from a razor-sharp Sidney Crosby, those high-danger scoring chances are only going to continue to occur. Draft for 60 points and high-five the nearest person on the bus when he closes in on 70.

***

Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I pretty much only talk about beards and prospects at this time of year. 

Other Frozen Pool Forensics:

Joe Pavelski 

Vladimir Tarasenko 

 

  • horrorfan

    Good stuff, thanks. Although his pace last season and second half this season shows signs of optimism, the fact is he’s never scored more than 53 points in a season. I know, if healthy, he could produce more, but we seem to be continually adding on these words, and perhaps next year people will say ‘if they didn’t slump early etc’. Expecting 60 points next season could leave managers disappointed, assuming you drafted him at a spot where other more reliable ~60 point producers are chosen.

    That being said, as you’ve mentioned, he’s solid in multiple category leagues with his high shot totals and moderate hit totals. For hits, let’s not overvalue his numbers this season as he had significantly more hits this season than any other in his career. Still, if you expect around a hit a game that’s still useful on top of his other category contributions.

    • Cam Robinson

      Those are good points.. and you’re absolutely right that its bold to expect a player who is 29 to have a career year and break the 60 point barrier or even high in a full season.

      I suppose that what I like best is how I began paragraph #3.. his situation and the opportunity he receives are top end. I think it’s the best situation he’s ever received with a competent structure of world class players around him. Yes he’s had two seasons in Pit next to Malkin or Crosby, but if the second half of the reg. and these playoffs are any indication of what’s to come next season, he’s a solid bet to post career numbers.

  • Mark McAuley

    Kunitz 2.0? Didn’t he usually play with Malkin? Either way, he has a World-class C, so 60 points seems reasonable. I would be surprised if he were to produce more than that, though.

    • Cam Robinson

      60 does seem about where he’ll end up in a healthy season, but he has shown the ability to play at a 65+ pace for over 50 games so its possible he could string together a career year.. especially if that PP runs hot into next season.