Frozen Pool Forensics: 2017 Trade Deadline Movers (Part One)

by Cam Robinson on February 17, 2017 | (0 Comments)

Taking a closer look at some of the deadline trade bait.

 

There once was a time when people all over North America would start sniffling and coughing at work or school a couple days before the NHL trade deadline just to assure no one’s suspicions were raised when they happened to call-in sick on what hoped to be an exciting day full of blockbuster moves… or maybe that was just me?

 

Sadly, in recent years, the trade deadline extravaganza has left us wanting. It’s been minor trades followed by hours of speculation and analysis. But we keep coming back for more, because we all hope to see that proverbial bigfoot – an actual ‘hockey’ trade that involves a star player or three.

 

As we approach this season’s deadline, Frozen Pool Forensics will dig into some potential players on the move and how a shuffling of organizations may change their fantasy outlook.

 

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Ben Bishop

 

This one surely isn’t a surprise to anyone who’s had a pulse the last 12 months. The Tampa Bay Lightning are a team with an upcoming cap crunch and a young, affordable, should-be-star goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting in the wings. The result is clear: Ben Bishop is not in the long-term plans.

 

After a Vezina nomination in 2015-16 in which he strung together 35 wins, a 2.06 goals against average and a stingy 0.926 save percentage, Bishop entered the last year of his deal looking like a strong bet to parlay that play into a massive UFA contract. Things have not exactly gone to plan for Bishop or the Lightning.

 

The 29-year-old has played 30 contests and recorded just 14 wins and a below league average save percentage of .910. That number places him 31st amongst all goalies with 20 or more starts.

 

Not exactly building up his trade value.

 

A closer look at his numbers shows that his ability to stop high-danger chances is still up there with some of the better goaltenders league wide with a 0.825 percent clip, but his medium danger shots against has lagged greatly. Bishop is only stopping .905 percent of those shots which sits way down at 39th overall for goaltenders with at least 750 minutes of game action. He’s allowing more goals against and by this metric, shots that should be easier to handle are slipping through.

 

The picture isn’t all bad though. Since the calendar flipped to 2017, the former University of Maine standout has won five of eight starts while producing a .918 save percentage and potential buyers have seen what he is capable of and the potential he could bring to a cup contender. Bishop has been a high-end asset for a few seasons and that type of pedigree is hard to come by.

 

NHL Stats - Last 5 Years

 

SEASON

GP

Win

L

OTL

SO

GA

SHA

GAA

SV%

2016-2017

30

14

12

3

1

74

820

2.63

0.910

2015-2016

61

35

21

4

6

123

1672

2.06

0.926

2014-2015

62

40

13

5

4

136

1620

2.32

0.916

2013-2014

62

37

13

7

5

131

1732

2.23

0.924

2012-2013

22

11

9

1

2

56

701

2.67

0.920

Average

47

27

14

4

4

104

1309

2.30

0.921

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That said, there aren’t a great many teams who are in the market for a rental goaltender. St. Louis appears set to push through with Jake Allen. Winnipeg looks to be in a similar spot with Hellebuyck and Pavelec and Dallas appears destined for a lottery pick and an off-season shake up in goal. Perhaps a team like the Flyers make a charge late with the help of Bishop, or how about the Calgary Flames? Not a ton of options out there, however.

 

With cheaper options, such as Jaroslav Halak available and a dearth of teams shopping, it’s likely we don’t see Bishop moved before March 1st. If he does, you can assume it will be to a team that’s currently playing better than Tampa Bay and that will only help boost his fantasy value.

 

 

Martin Hanzal

 

It’s not too often that a 29-year-old top line centre is available at the deadline, but that’s exactly what is the case this season for Martin Hanzal. Blessed with tremendous size and skill, the former 17th overall selection from 2005 has teased the fantasy community for years by putting up tantalizing numbers for short stretches before slowing or ending up on the injured reserve.

 

Playing on a very low scoring Coyotes’ team, Hanzal hasn’t had a banner offensive campaign. Through his first two quarters of the season, he produced just 15 points in 34 games to go along with a minus-16 rating. His play has turned around of late, however, as he’s racked up eight points in his last 12 games with a plus-one rating.

 

Historically, a pass-first centre, the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent has upped his shot production this season and especially as late, as he’s averaged over three shots per contest during his recent run of quality play. A strong indication of a confident player.

 

Third Quarter Summary

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

PPTOI

%PP

%PK

TOI/G

%TOI

12

5

3

8

0.67

55

1

6

39

29

1

2

0

15

.7500

60.2

30.0

.8333

32.3

 

 

Hanzal has accomplished these modest totals while being buried in his deployment. In four of the last five seasons, the big Czech centre has started more than half of his shifts in the offensive zone, with that one season seeing him start 49.6 percent in the fun end of the rink.

 

This season, however?

 

Hanzal has had to scratch and claw his way up ice by starting a paltry 39.2 percent in the offensive end. He has been relied on to handle all the tough minutes and assignments and despite this, and being on a very poor team, he remains a decent Corsi player – sitting at 47.8 percent.

 

Advanced Stats

 

Year

PDO

5 on 5 SH%

Off. Zone Start %

PTS/60

IPP

2016-17

976

6.46

39.2

1.6

59.0

2015-16

1019

9.04

51.71

2.2

67.2

2014-15

991

9.83

53.53

2.2

67.2

2013-14

989

6.36

49.59

2.0

70.6

2012-13

1010

7.12

62.2

1.9

67.8

2011-12

1015

7.86

52.81

1.7

62.2

2010-11

998

6.18

46.54

1.3

53.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s easy to assume that if Hanzal is moved to a contending team in need of some help down the middle, like Nashville or Montreal, that his production will be in line for a boost. While it’s true he will likely be playing with quality players and likely insulated in a second line role thus seeing second pairing defenders rather than the top unit matchups he faces now, he’ll also likely be relegated to the second power play unit.

 

There is a chance the life-long Coyote could see a bump in his fantasy value depending on where he ends up, but don’t expect major dividends to follow.

 

 

Mark Streit

 

Almost every team will tell you that they’re in the market for another top-four defender come deadline time. As such, those players will often come at a premium, but if you dig a little deeper there are usually some cost-effective additions that hold the potential to improve their new clubs for the sprint to the finish line.

 

39-year-old Mark Streit fits that bill. As a long time, power play quarterback, Streit has seen his role reduced in Philadelphia with the emergence of Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov. His share of power play time has diminished in the last two seasons from the 70 percent share he earned in 2014-15 in which he accrued 52 points in 81 contests – 30 of which came on the man-advantage. That isn’t to say that he can’t handle running a second unit on a cup contender if the opportunity presents itself.

 

NHL Stats - Last 5 Years

 

SEASON

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

+/-

PIM

Shots

SH%

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

FOW

FO%

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

2016-2017

44

5

15

20

0.45

-9

16

81

6.2

23

1

9

0

51

0

 

02:38

42.1

12.5

19:37

32.2

2015-2016

62

6

17

23

0.37

-1

18

110

5.5

28

2

8

0

90

0

 

03:06

50.8

26.6

21:52

35.8

2014-2015

81

9

43

52

0.64

-8

36

144

6.3

63

4

30

0

103

0

 

03:35

69.9

6.5

22:21

36.6

2013-2014

82

10

34

44

0.54

3

44

121

8.3

41

4

15

0

108

0

 

02:42

45.5

5.3

20:39

33.9

2012-2013

48

6

21

27

0.56

-12

22

83

7.2

34

3

10

0

86

0

 

03:44

74.2

28.3

23:22

38.3

Average

82

9

34

43

0.52

-7

35

139

6.7

49

4

19

0

113

0

 

03:09

55.6

13.5

21:35

35.4

 

If the Flyers continue to slip further out of a playoff spot, the likelihood of the team moving on from the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent increases. The cost won’t likely be more than a pick or two and depending on where he lands, could certainly result in a boost to his fantasy value.

 

If Streit lands on a team like Chicago that often spreads their talent out amongst two units, then you may want to take a chance on the veteran blue liner. If he ends up in a similar situation as he’s currently in, where the team loads up a top unit and the second power play gets minimal opportunities, then expectations should be tempered.

 

***

 

Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I often give unsolicited fantasy advice that I’m sure at least someone is listening to.

 

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