Frozen Pool Forensics: Dougie Hamilton

Chris Liggio

2017-07-21

Dougie Hamilton - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

In an effort to continue the trend of alternating week to week coverage between forwards and defenders, this week we take a look at yet another stud dealt away by the Boston Bruins by the name of Dougie Hamilton. If you’ve never taken the time to compile the potential line combinations traded away by Boston in the past twelve years it’s truly breathtaking. Hamilton just turned 24 a month ago, and he's really coming into his own as a valuable multi-category fantasy asset, but with the recent slew of moves in Calgary, it's important to re-evaluate his situation going forward.

 

 

There’s no doubt Hamilton has consistently gotten better in consecutive seasons since leaving Boston. After three years of improving point totals, PIM and shots, it’s safe to call him one of the most consistent blue-line options. His  points per 60 minutes also improved slightly in 2016-17 after two seasons of matching rates, and his Corsi For percentage shot up 55.0 after posting a 49.7 mark in 2015-16.

2015-16 was a down year for the Flames, so it was encouraging to see Hamilton get back to being a significant driver of possession. While still likely not in the Tier 1 echelon of defenders in multi-category league, he's capable of putting up high-end production, and in points-only formats, he still remains quite valuable after posting his first 50 point season this past year. Unfortunately, Hamilton is unlikely to slip as far in drafts as his did last fall.

 

Mark GiordanoTravis Hamonic

Hamilton – TJ Brodie

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Michael StoneDennis Wideman

 

Going back to the opening statement in regards to re-evaluating Hamilton for the coming season, take a look above at these potential blue-line pairs for the Flames in 2017-18. What owners must consider going into drafts is what will be the fallout of Hamonic coming to Calgary. Hamonic wasn't acquired to play on the third pair. This is a proven defender that can matchup up against the opposition's top players, and Calgary dealt several top picks for him, so he's going to play often. The other potential dagger to Hamilton’s situation is the fact that Hamonic is also a right-handed shot, which gives Calgary four total. We’ve seen handedness be a fantasy roadblock for players on other teams in the past.

The Flames possess a deep defense, and easily one of the best in the league. This scenario cannot be seen as beneficial to any one player in particular from a fantasy standpoint, as there are several assets to contribute for the greater good so to speak. This is not to say Hamilton still won’t be a great asset to own, but expecting 50 points again with the additional depth might be asking a lot.

Hamilton will have to luck out in several scenarios to really break away from the pack, and with the blend of style on their blue line now, it is safer to keep him in the 40-point range. Claiming a role on the No. 1 power-play unit would be a difference maker, but there are still a lot of ifs without guaranteed answer(s). Expectations should probably be tempered.

It’s all about where you draft Hamilton this fall. Reach for him, and it could be a blow to your squad if things don't go well. However, targeted closer to the middle rounds, as a third defender, it will be tough complain about the value regardless of the situation he finds himself in. Let others reach. 

 

 

6 Comments

  1. Ryan Taylor 2017-07-21 at 11:36

    Confused about a couple things?

    First, Wideman isn’t on the Flames anymore.

    Second, the coaching staff and management have all said Hamilton and Gio will remain a pairing (easy information to find) and Brodie and Hamonic will play together (again, easy to find).

    Third, Hamonic is not going to play PP this year and is going to ease the heavy lifting Giordano-Hamilton had to do last year, giving them better opportunities.

    Lastly, as the obvious best offensive option on the team, Hamilton is going to keep grabbing a larger PP share as he separates himself from Brodie and Giordano continues to age. There is not a right handed player on Calgary that will provide any type of offensive roadblock to Hamilton. Anything less than 45 points would be considered a failure season, and less than 50 would still be a shock.

    • Greg Heaslip 2017-07-21 at 18:32

      Agree. Not sure what all the doom and gloom is about.

      Attempting to nab Hamilton as a “third defender” is just crazy talk.
      I’d love Hamilton to anchor my D!

      • robbhope 2017-07-22 at 04:07

        Completely agree with all of you guys. Hamilton is my number 1 target this off season in my keeper league. In our settings, he was 8th in points amount defensemen in his age 23 season. Ridiculous production and Calgary is only going to have the puck more next season. I feel like Hamilton’s production and value might not be far off of Hedman’s. Just my two cents.

    • Fred 2017-07-21 at 20:45

      I totally agree with Ryan. Great statement, I think Chris is trying to low ball here and keep Hamilton for himself in the next draft! Pretty obvious this guy is a next runner for 50+.
      My 2 cents.

    • joey mac 2017-07-22 at 01:27

      Ryan hit the nail on the head a few times here. I don’t usually comment on these things but this piece is just so misinformed I couldn’t stop myself. Your “forensic” analysis should have at least revealed that Wideman does not play for the Flames anymore, that Gio-Hamilton will be paired together, that Hamilton should only see an uptick in PP usage (based on Gulutzan’s mid-season realization that DH is the most offensively-skilled Dman the Flames have), and that Dougie is more than a 40 pt defenseman (because as the author correctly points out Hamilton has improved every year, and thus it is reasonable to believe that trend should continue, ie. Dougie should improve on his 50 points from last year).

    • BF 2017-07-24 at 09:50

      Couldn’t agree with this comment enough.

      Even if he grabs the same PPTOI share he had last year (which was relatively consistent to his entire time in CGY) there is no reason for his point totals to decline by 20%. His shooting % has been consistent every year and his PDO doesn’t show him to be a lucky player so why would a player on an improved team, facing weaker competition…regress?

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