Geek of the Week: Gabriel Landeskog

by Scott Maran on September 24, 2017 | (0 Comments)

Gabriel Landeskog's fantasy value has nowhere to go but up.

Even though the Colorado Avalanche failed to make the playoffs in 2016, there was still plenty of optimism for fantasy purposes for the following year. Four Colorado forwards broke the 50-point mark while Tyson Barrie, the Avalanche’s star offensive defensemen, racked up 49 points in 78 games. The defense wasn’t great but there was enough offense to make the Avalanche a respectable team to draft players from for your fantasy team.

But fast-forward to last year and it was a whole different story. The Avalanche were a mess, as it was hard for anyone to provide any fantasy value on the team. Nathan MacKinnon was the only forward who scored over 50 points while Tyson Barrie was the only defensemen who was able to tally more than 20 points. Gabriel Landeskog optimized the failures of the club, as the Colorado captain barely managed to record over 30 points. With his lowest point totals in a season since 2012 (where he only played 36 games), those who drafted Landeskog for their fantasy team were heavily disappointed. However, with his value now at an all-time low, there’s a chance Landeskog ends up providing sneaky good value.

Earlier in his career, Landeskog was a very valuable forward, as he was highly sought after for his combination of scoring and strong peripherals. He was never a huge scorer but he was always good for 20+ goals and 30+ assists, recording at least 50 points in all four of his full seasons before last year. And through his first three full seasons in the NHL, Landeskog could help fantasy owners in almost any category. He averaged over 200 shots, 60 blocked shots, around 180 hits, and 70 penalty minutes a season, making him one of the best contributors across all categories.

But similar to the Avalanche as a team last year, everything seemed to go wrong for Landeskog. According to our Fantasy Hockey Geek tool, Landeskog was only the 184th most valuable skater in the NHL last year (using an average 12-team H2H Yahoo league measuring G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, and SO).
 

 

Rank

Position

FHG Value

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

Martin Hanzal

183

C

-7

20

19

169

9

145

Gabriel Landeskog

184

LW

-7

18

15

169

6

143

Morgan Rielly

185

D

-8

6

21

171

5

46

Jason Demers

186

D

-8

9

19

98

5

106

Alexei Emelin

187

D

-8

2

8

82

0

241


With the Colorado Avalanche struggling as a team to produce any offense (last in the league with only 165 goals for), Landeskog ended the season with a measly 33 points in 72 games. For a former 60+ point scorer, it was hard to accept that Landeskog ended the year tied for the 220th most points in the NHL, next to Jason Chimera and Devin Shore. Along with lower shot and hit totals due to 10 missed games, you end with a Fantasy Hockey Geek value of minus-8, by far the worst of Landeskog’s career (and that’s without even mentioning his 10th worst plus/minus rating in the league).

But the problem with basing Landeskog’s value off of last season is that almost everything that could have gone wrong probably did. A consistent 50+ point scorer (with 60+ point potential) doesn’t all of a sudden forget how to score and become a 33-point scorer. Colorado is unlikely to be as atrocious as they were last year and Landeskog should see his point totals at the very least get back over 40 (with the potential of 50 or more). So if we expect Landeskog’s point totals to regress back to his average, we can also expect his power-play point totals to bounce back a bit. Every year before last season Landeskog scored at least 10 points with the man-advantage, so it’s entirely reasonable to expect him to hit double digits again. Not to mention, if he’s healthy and can play in all 82 games, he should still put up solid peripherals. Averaging out his hit and shot totals from last year over 82 games, you get a very respectable 163 hits and 192 shots.

Using our What If tool, we can plug all these numbers in and estimate Landeskog’s potential value for the upcoming season. If we just assume Landeskog slightly bounces back and hits marks he usually hits (nothing spectacular or anything), Landeskog ends up around 134th overall in terms of fantasy value in an average Yahoo fantasy league.
 

Landeskog Stats

FHG Value

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

2016

-8

18

15

169

6

143

2017 – What If

10.6

22

26

181

12

163


Just by playing in all 82 games and scoring a few more points, Landeskog sees his value improve tremendously, as his Fantasy Hockey Geek value improves by over 18 points. Ranked at around 134th overall by Fantasy Hockey Geek, Landeksog can easily provide more value than where he’s being drafted on average this year. In Yahoo, Landeskog is on average being drafted 167th overall (next to Jeff Petry and Jonathan Bernier) while on Fantrax he is
being drafted 172nd overall on average. And that’s with Landeskog only not having the worst season of his career! What would happen if Landeskog rebounds and goes back to scoring over 50 points a season?
 

Landeskog Stats

FHG Value

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

2016

-8

18

15

169

6

143

2017 – What If

31

24

36

181

14

163


If Landeskog scores 60 points while maintaining the rest of his peripherals, his Fantasy Hockey Geek value skyrockets to 31, ranking him 78th overall with John Carlson and Anze Kopitar. Even though a lot of people are down on Landeskog after the year he had, his low average draft position presents a great opportunity to grab some value later in the draft, as there is a very good chance he rebounds and provides better value.

To identify more players with great value in your specific league settings, check out Fantasy Hockey Geek to generate custom rankings tailored for you. With the Season Toolkit, you can use our advanced tools to manage to the top and take down the title. Head to the Dobber Sports Shop and pick it up today!

 

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