Geek of the Week: Matt Duchene

by Scott Maran on March 19, 2017 | (0 Comments)

Just how bad has it been for Matt Duchene?

The 2016-2017 season has not been kind to the Colorado Avalanche. With a measly 20 wins through 69 games, the Avalanche find themselves in dead last in the NHL, stuck at the bottom of the standings with 43 points and a minus-89 goal differential. In comparison, the second-to-last-place Arizona Coyotes have 60 points.

Out of this atrocity of a season has come struggles for almost every player in Colorado. After two consecutive 50-point seasons, Tyson Barrie has seen his point totals dip down to 31 in 60 games, a 42-point pace over a full season. And after three straight years of 50+ points, Gabriel Landeskog has only tallied 28 points in 58 games this season, only a 40-point pace.

But worst of all seems to be the decline of Matt Duchene. Drafted by poolies with the hopes of improving on his rebound season last year, Duchene’s lackluster play has severely hurt those who selected him.

Drafted third overall by the Colorado Avalanche, Duchene entered the NHL as a 19 year old, scoring 24 goals and 31 assists. Finishing third in Calder voting, Duchene quickly looked like a star in the making and followed up his rookie campaign with a 67-point season. Then after a bit of a down year, Duchene tallied 113 points in 118 games across his next two seasons.

Since then, Duchene has been averaging around 60 points a season while playing a key role in the Avalanche’s offense. Last year saw him score 30 goals for the first time in his career and lead the team both in goals and total points.

However, this season has seen his numbers crater, with Duchene on pace for one of his worst statistical seasons of his career. But just how bad has Duchene been? With our Fantasy Hockey Geek tool, we can see how much fantasy value Duchene has been providing. For our sample league, we’ll being using an average 12-team H2H Yahoo league measuring G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, and SO with this season’s stats.
 

 

Rank

FHG Value

ADP

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

Brian Dumoulin

269

-26

510

0

12

72

3

89

Matt Duchene

270

-26

81

17

20

140

9

34

Brett Ritchie

271

-26

-

12

8

141

2

126


Despite Duchene on average being drafted 84th overall, Duchene has only provided the 270th most value out of all fantasy hockey skaters. While his 37 points aren’t atrocious, they are a far cry from what was expected from him this year. Tied with David Perron and Patric Hornqvist in points, Duchene’s point totals are tied for the 140th most in the league. And this is on top of his below-average peripherals. Duchene’s shot totals are only 127th best in the league while his nine power-play points are only tied for the 154th most in the NHL.

And that’s not even the worst. Duchene’s measly hit totals don’t even crack the top-400 in the league, with his hits total clocking in at 464th best. Add that to the fact that Duchene also performs poorly in categories not counted in this specific league and you can quickly see the little value Duchene has provided. His penalty minute totals are only good for 562nd best in the league and his minus-27 plus/minus is tied for second-worst in the entire NHL.

Matt Duchene is still a quality player and will likely rebound next season, especially if he finds himself playing for another club. However, this season has been a disaster for the forward as he has provided next to no fantasy value.