Geek of the Week admits fault in this end of season recap.

Last week, with my All Geek Team I outlined all of the players who we profiled in this spot and absolutely nailed. This week, I am taking a slice of humble pie and outlining the guys that I missed on and – more importantly – identifying what we can learn from the misses.

I did the same article last year and although my hit rate was well over 90%, the misses were brutal. Looking back at last year, the biggest "what did we learn" lessons were to be aware of age and also to be cognizant of the opportunities being afforded to players. I think that I did a decent job of avoiding those same pitfalls this year and I think that the "misses" weren't nearly as bad because of that. There are always going to be some misses tough – and always something you can learn from those misses. So let's take a look at the Geeks of the Week who ended up leaving something to be desired:

Brad Richards:

Richards has been a tough nut to crack because you have always seen the upside (3 seasons over a point per game), but you have also always seem the downside (60 point player with limited peripherals). This year, I thought that B-Rich might be a good buy low option because of his poor output in New York and his high ceiling potential combined with his increasing shot rate.

What Went Wrong

Basically, "what went wrong" was my optimism. When I originally wrote the article, Richards had 8 points in 8 games but his terrible peripherals still had him ranked pretty low in terms of FHG numbers. I went on to show how the terrible peripherals in some cases would not continue (+/-) and in other cases (hits, PPP) could be overcome. I thought that Richards could be a great buy-low. Unfortunately, it didn't pan out quite right: Richards resumed a similar point pace to what he has had since joining the Rangers and I plummeted in the standings of the Dobber Experts league. Richards ended up as the 103^rd most valuable player in the leagus, which incidentally is 64 spots higher than where he was when I wrote the article BUT not nearly as high as the top-50 value I predicted. I should have sold high

What did we learn?

It's hard to say what to learn from this. If you want to get value out of certain players then you have to take risks and get in on the ground floor of some sort of change (coaching change, linemates, experience etc). Unfortunately, when you act early on these guys, some (read: Richards) simply aren't going to pan out. If I learned anything from B-Rich, it's to always sell high. In my original article I spoke about how I need to hold Richards because he is potentially *that* good. In the future, if I own a player whose value shifts drastically to the positive, I will always try to move him. For example – if a guy who has been a 60pt guy starts acting like an 80pt guy for 12 games, I will always trade him for a 75ish point guy. I may have had the opportunity to do that with B-Rich in the beginning of the season, but I blew it.

Steve Downie:

Downie is a former first round pick who has the skill to put up some points and the feistiness to put up some PIMs. He was lighting the lamp with the Avs, so he was starting to merge (in my eyes) as a top fantasy own.

What went wrong?

After racking up 7 points and 37 PIMs in Colorady, Downie was shipped to Philadelhpia where his pace slowed down in both regards as he notched 17 points in 51 games to go along with 70 penalty minutes. Downie's value dropped significantly:

What did we learn?

If you owned Donwie, then chances are you didn't pay a ton to get him so depending on when you scooped him – it may not have actually been that bad. If you're going to learn anything from Downie though it's this: a players' situation may help them in the short term, but only the truly skilled players will help YOUR team in the long term. Think Kevin Stevens here: he would have been an amazing own when he was playing with Jagr and Mario. Outside of them? Not so much. If you learn anything from this situation it's to avoid (or sell high on) guys who may be benefiting from their situation like J Jokinen and Deshharnais who are outperforming their skill based on their opportunity.

So there are the two biggest fails of 2013-14. They aren't nearly as bad as last season but hopefully we all can still take away some learnings and avoid players like this in the future. With the help of Fantasy Hockey Geek, I was able to identify a ton of guys who were able to help me throughout the season. Richards and Downie weren't part of them, but I had more fun finding players through FHG than had in all my other fantasy hockey endeavors. I hope you did too! Cheers!