Alex Killorn is Clicking With Tyler Johnson

by Adam Daly-Frey on February 3, 2017 | (3 Comments)

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule.

 

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

 

Phillip Danault, C/LW, Montreal (Available in 94 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Over the last ten games, Danault has spent the bulk of his ice time playing on the first line along with Alex Radulov and Max Pacioretty at even strength as well as together on the power play. Although he’s only hitting in the 16 minute mark, Danault playing with two studs is sure to drive his production especially given some of the softer teams – Avs, ‘Yotes and Blues – that the Canadiens will get to face. In his last five games he’s picked up 1G-2A and fired 9SOG, and was a big feature in Pacioretty’s hat-trick against Buffalo. With Alex Galchenyuk back, look for Danault to hold his spot on the first line while they’re hot, but dump him as soon as he’s off the first line.

 

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

 

Alex Killorn, LW, Tampa Bay (Available in 73 percent of Yahoo leagues) – A lot of this is dependent on where Killorn slots in Tampa’s offense; Killorn’s been centered by Tyler Johnson for the last 10 games, but more importantly he’s started seeing time as the new member of the Triplet line (replacing Ondrej Palat). In this new role he’s found a lot of success, scoring 2G-3A in his last three. The Harvard grad has a great floor in leagues that count shots, averaging 2.01SOG/Gm over his career and 2.2SOG/Gm this season.

Killorn is a great player to plug in to cover injuries (especially in salary cap leagues), but he also has some scoring upside riding shotgun with Johnson as he has been. Killorn is two goals away from tying his career high of 17 so he should easily clear 20, and although his assist rate is down slightly, playing with the calibre of player that he is that should see an uptick over the last 30 games.

 

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

 

Nathan Beaulieu, D, Montreal (Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues) – With the return of Andrei Markov last game, Beaulieu saw an immediate drop in his ice time of two minutes and only 24 shifts; compare this to with Markov out, when Beaulieu was playing 24+ minutes (including time on the PP1 point) and around 28 shifts a game. Beaulieu definitely has offensive potential, as shown by his production with Markov gone, but as Markov eases back into the lineup Beaulieu’s upside will drop. He’s not a player to drop, but he can take a backseat on rosters for the time being or until Band-Aid Boy Markov gets hurt again.

 

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint, even over the long haul)

 

Brent Seabrook, D, Chicago (Owned in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues) – In leagues that don’t count peripheral stats like hits and blocks Seabrook has negligible value this season, and will continue his slide over the back half. Although on paper his 3G-22A season through 50 games played doesn’t seem like something to scoff at, the back half of the season historically hasn’t been kind to Seabrook:


2013-14: Pre-Christmas, 26 points in 39 games. Post-Christmas, 15 points in 43 games

2014-15: Pre-Christmas, 21 points in 36 games. Post-Christmas, 10 points in 46 games

2015-16: This was the first time Seabrook continued his pace past the break, thanks to a lot of extra work on the power play

2016-17, so far: Pre-Christmas, 20 points in 34 games. Post-Christmas, 5 points in 16 games

Seabrook’s peripherals will continue to be good, but it’s a good time to shop the big defenseman for something that offers more value.

 

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

 

Toronto – With six games between February 3rd and February 15th, the young Leafs get some juicy matchups against some poor defensive squads in St. Louis, Dallas and Buffalo – all at home. Going into the All-Star break the Leafs’ shot volume with down, but expect that to change in some high paced games.

 

Montreal – Montreal also has a packed schedule – six games in the same stretch as the Leafs – and faces the bottom of the Western Conference, seeing Colorado and Arizona before also facing St. Louis. Their new first line with Phillip Danault (mentioned above), Max Pacioretty and Alex Radulov is firing, and Alex Galchenyuk should be back from injury.

 

Minnesota – The Wild don’t have the most games in the next 12 days (five), but their matchups are enticing. In the immediate future they’ve got games against Vancouver and Tampa Bay, and near the middle of the month they get a home game against Detroit. Minnesota has a rolling 10-game GF% average that hasn’t dipped below 55%, and will continue putting pucks in the net at a great clip – 20 goals in their last five games.

 

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

  

Boston – Although the Bruins have been hot of late, they’re entering a stretch where they only play four games in the next 12 days, with games against the third and sixth stingiest teams in terms of Goals Allowed. Not counting the All-Star or Christmas breaks, the Bruins have been terrible or three or more days rest: only 9GF, 15GA in 7GP – 3W 4L.

 

New Jersey – There’s not much enticing about a Devils team that’s averaged only 24.93SOG/Gm going back to December 1st. New Jersey only cracked the 4-goal threshold five times in that span (29GP), and although they play five times between the 3rd and 15th, they’ve been trending down.

 

Florida – Between the 3rd and the 15th of the month, the Cats play only four times, all against tough Western Conference teams (Anaheim, Los Angeles, at Nashville, at San Jose). They’ll probably get Sasha Barkov back, but will be in tough to put numbers up on the statsheet.

 

Friday, February 3 to Thursday, February 9

Best Bets

New York Islanders 4.34 - four games – At DET & PHI, Home CAR & TOR

Toronto 4.32 - four games – At BOS & NYI, Home DAL & STL

Pittsburgh 4.29 - four games – At STL & COL, Home CBJ & CGY

Columbus 4.21 - four games – At PIT & DET, Home NJD & VAN

Montreal 4.12 - four games – At COL & ARI, Home WAS & EDM

Steer Clear

Arizona 1.70 - three games – At SJS, Home MTL

Edmonton 1.85 – two games – At CAR & MTL

Florida 1.89 – two games – Home ANH & LAK

Tampa Bay 1.89 – two games – Home ANH & LAK

Chicago 1.90 – two games – At DAL & MIN

Saturday, February 4 to Friday, February 10

Best Bets

Toronto 4.32 - four games – At BOS & NYI, Home DAL & STL

Minnesota 4.29 - four games – At VAN & WSH, Home CHI & TB

Montreal 4.12 - four games – At COL & ARI, Home WSH & EDM

Washington 4.02 - four games – At MTL, Home LAK & CAR & DET

St. Louis 3.94 - four games – At PHI & OTT & TOR, Home PIT

Steer Clear

Edmonton 0.81 - one game – At MTL

Florida 0.89 – one game – Home LAK

Arizona 1.70 - two games – At SJS, Home MTL

Carolina 1.71 - two games – At NYI & WAS

Calgary 1.81 - two games – At NYR & PIT

Sunday, February 5 to Saturday, February 11

Best Bets

Toronto 4.52 – four games – At NYI, Home DAL & STL & BUF

New York Rangers 4.46 - four games – Home CGY & ANH & NSH & COL

Montreal 4.43 - four games – At COL & ARI, Home EDM & STL

Washington 4.20 - four games – Home LAK & CAR & DET & ANH

Buffalo 3.84 - four games – At NJD & TOR, Home SJS & ANH

Steer Clear

New Jersey 1.16 – one game – Home BUF

Florida 1.80 - two games – At NSH, Home LAK

Calgary 1.81 - two games – At NYR & PIT

Edmonton 1.81 - two games – At MTL, Home CHI

Arizona 1.89 - two games – Home MTL, PIT

Monday, February 6 to Sunday, February 12

Best Bets

Buffalo 4.99 - five games – At NJD & TOR, Home SJS & ANH & VAN

Toronto 4.52 - four games – At NYI, Home DAL & STL & BUF

Minnesota 4.40 - four games – At WPG, Home CHI & TB & DET

Montreal 4.39 - four games – At COL & ARI & BOS, Home STL

Nashville 4.37 - four games – At NYR, Home VAN & FLA & DAL

Steer Clear

Calgary 0.90 – one game – At PIT

Edmonton 1.00 - one game – Home CHI

Florida 1.80 - two games – At NSH, Home LAK

Arizona 1.89 - two games – Home MTL & PIT

Carolina 1.90 - two games – At WAS & DAL

Tuesday, February 7 to Monday, February 13

Best Bets

Minnesota 4.40 - four games – At WPG, Home CHI & TB & DET

Montreal 4.39 - four games – At COL & ARI & BOS, Home STL

Nashville 4.37 - four games – At NYR, Home VAN & FLA & DAL

Columbus 4.35 - four games – At DET, Home VAN & DET & NYR

San Jose 4.09 - four games – At BUF & BOS & PHI & NJD

Steer Clear

New Jersey 0.89 – one game – Home SJS

Edmonton 1.00 - one game – Home CHI

Florida 1.80 - two games – At NSH, Home LAK

Carolina 1.90 - two games – At WAS & DAL

Philadelphia 1.94 - two games – Home NYI & SJS

Wednesday, February 8 to Tuesday, February 14

Best Bets

Minnesota 4.25 - four games – Home CHI & TB & DET & ANH

New York Islanders 4.21 - four games – At PHI & OTT & TOR, Home COL

Dallas 4.10 - four games – At OTT & NSH & WPG, Home CAR

Buffalo 4.01 - four games – At TOR & OTT, Home ANH & VAN

Arizona 3.89 - four games – At CGY & EDM, Home MTL & PIT

Steer Clear

Los Angeles 0.95 - one game – At FLA

Carolina 1.14 - one game – At DAL

Calgary 1.26 – one game – Home ARI

St. Louis 1.76 - two games – At TOR & MTL

Florida 1.80 - two games – At NSH, Home LAK

Thursday, February 9 to Wednesday, February 15

Best Bets

Columbus 4.36 - four games – Home VAN & DET & NYR & TOR

New York Islanders 4.21 - four games – At PHI & OTT & TOR, Home COL

Toronto 4.17 - four games – At CBJ, Home STL & BUF & NYI

Dallas 4.10 - four games – At OTT & NSH & WPG, Home CAR

San Jose 4.09 - four games – At BOS & PHI & NJD, Home FLA

Steer Clear

Los Angeles 0.95 - one game – At FLA

Carolina 1.14 - one game – At DAL

Tampa Bay 1.90 - two games – At MIN & WPG

Chicago 2.04 - two games – At WPG & EDM

New Jersey 2.15 - two games – Home SJS & COL

 

  • Stuart Madan

    Palat or Killorn rest of season in a salary cap league?

    • Bandaman

      Killorn, hands down. Palat has taken a major step back.

    • Adam Daly-Frey

      I’d go with Killorn, even after Cooper shuffled the lines again between writing this & posting this. His floor is higher, linemate independent