Looking Ahead: Week 18 (2015-16)

Mike Schmidt

2016-01-29

Add Mika Zibanejad to take advantage of the Senators favourable upcoming schedule.

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…

 

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use them for the next several days)

 

Justin Abdelkader, LW/RW, Detroit (Available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues) – It shouldn’t be difficult for fantasy owners to talk themselves into employing Abdelkader in the short term when he’s putting up points and playing on the same line as gifted rookie Dylan Larkin and proven veteran Henrik Zetterberg. The 28-year-old winger will never be confused for an all-around, two-way forward, but he is capable of scoring 20-plus goals over a full season (which he is on pace to do for the second straight year). His shooting percentage is sitting at a career-high .159 so far in 2015-16, so there may be a little bit of regression coming his way. That being said, the downside to using him (sparingly) is not significant. Poolies who want to pick up a few goals from Abdelkader while he and the Red Wings benefit from a great upcoming schedule should consider adding him for the next couple of weeks.

 

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

 

Mika Zibanejad, C/RW, Ottawa (Available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues) – There is no time better than now to buy in on Zibanejad. The following facts about the 22-year-old Senators forward should illustrate why:

 

  • He’s registered at least one point in six straight games and seven out of nine overall this month.
  • That recent offensive surge gives Zibanejad a decent shot at hitting the 60-point mark this year. It may not happen, but it’s possible.
  • He’s on Ottawa’s top power play unit, one which includes all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson.
  • He’s seeing a minute more of ice time per game than he did a year ago. Also, that ice time per game has been on the rise every year Zibanejad’s been in the league.
  • His points-per-game average has risen every season Zibanejad’s been in the NHL.

 

This youngster has transformed himself from an adequate fantasy option into a great one this year. Yet, he’s available in four out of five Yahoo leagues right now. That needs to change.

 

The Odd Men Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

 

Eric Staal, C/LW, Carolina (Owned in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues) – The combination of declining skills and a middling supporting cast has caused this former superstar’s fantasy value to take a bit of a hit. Though he was a point-per-game player just three short years ago, Staal seems to be evolving into something (considerably) less than that at this point. It doesn’t help that his future with the Hurricanes is very much uncertain, and it remains to be seen if that affects his play over the course of the coming weeks. What is clear, however, is the month of January has not been kind to the 31-year-old forward. Staal registered just six points in 11 games this month (and only one in his six most recent appearances), leaving fantasy owners questioning whether or not he should be employed in lineups on a regular basis. The short answer? No. The act of trying to determine Staal’s short-term fantasy value yields more questions than answers. Put him on the bench and let things play themselves out a bit. The ‘Canes upcoming schedule leaves a lot to be desired in terms of fantasy opportunity, anyway.

The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

 

Jeff Skinner, LW/RW, Carolina (Owned in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Take the following stat as evidence of just how much Skinner’s fantasy value has plummeted in the last few years: He scored 63 points in 82 games in his rookie season of 2010-11 (at the tender age of 18), and has totaled just 59 points in 128 games played since the start of the 2014-15 season. While it should be said that the 23-year-old winger has bounced back some from a disastrous campaign a year ago (18 goals, 13 assists, 31 points, career-worst  -24 plus-minus  and career-worst shooting percentage of .077 in 77 games played), he’s not exactly distinguishing himself as a desirable, or even reliable, fantasy option right now. Consider the following:

 

  • Skinner averaged 18 minutes, 37 seconds per game in 2011-12, which was a career high. His minutes played per game average has gone down every year since. He’s now averaging less than 16 minutes of ice time per appearance.
  • Skinner averaged 3:04 in power-play ice time per game in 2013-14, which was a career high. His average ice time per game on the man advantage has decreased in each of the two years since. He’s now playing less than two minutes per game on the power play.

 

Where does that leave Skinner’s fantasy value? He’s an adequate forward who is putting up solid numbers seeing the vast majority of his time on the ice at even strength. Unfortunately, that makes a return to his early-career production highly unlikely. A change of scenery (or even circumstances) would help, but nothing of the sort appears imminent.

 

By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will help or hurt fantasy owners in the coming days.

 

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

 

Montreal – The month of February brings a nice stretch of home games for the Habs. The squad will play four of its first five games of the month in Montreal. Even better, the matchups are far from daunting (at Philadelphia, versus Buffalo, versus, Edmonton, versus Carolina and versus Tampa Bay.

 

Ottawa – Expect big things from Erik Karlsson and Co. coming out of the All-Star Break. The Sens open the month of February with four of six at home.

 

Detroit – Check out the team’s schedule for the first two weeks of February. Lean heavily on any and all fantasy-relevant Wings. Just don’t talk yourself into something crazy like adding and using Brad Richards.

 

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

 

Carolina – Fun fact: This team is somehow, someway not currently in last place in the Metropolitan Division. Nevertheless, the Hurricanes open February with three straight contests on the road.

 

Vancouver – The volume just isn’t there for this squad in early February. The Canucks play just twice between the first of the month and Tuesday, Feb. 9. That’s just not going to cut it for most poolies.


San Jose – Unlike Vancouver, the Sharks actually see a fair bit of action in early February. That being said, they play their first four games of the month on the road. As for the matchups… uhhh… they could be better (at Anaheim, at St. Louis, at Nashville and at Chicago).

Friday, January 29 to Thursday, February 4

Best Bets

Boston 2.30 – two games – TOR and BUF

Montreal 2.25 – two games – PHI and BUF

Washington 2.21 – two games – both at home

Chicago 2.19 – two games – COL and ARI

Nashville 2.15 – two games – both at home

Steer Clear

Carolina 0.95 – one game – CGY on road

Calgary 1.05 – one game – CAR

Pittsburgh 1.05 – one game – OTT

Vancouver 1.05 – one game – CBJ

Winnipeg 1.10 – one game – DAL

Saturday, January 30 to Friday, February 5

Best Bets

Anaheim 3.27 – three games – two at home

Columbus 2.95 – three games – EDM, VAN and CGY

Arizona 2.70 – three games – two at home

Boston 2.30 – two games – TOR and BUF

Montreal 2.25 – two games – PHI and BUF

Steer Clear

Vancouver 1.05 – one game – CBJ

San Jose 1.71 – two games – both on road

Philadelphia 1.74 – two games – MTL and NSH

New York Islanders 1.75 – two games – MIN and WAS

Buffalo 1.81 – two games – MTL and BOS

Sunday, January 31 to Saturday, February 6

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Best Bets

Boston 3.51 – three games – two at home

Montreal 3.36 – three games – two at home

Nashville 3.31 – three games – all at home

Anaheim 3.27 – three games – two at home

Washington 3.25 – three games – two at home

Steer Clear

Carolina 1.85 – two games – both on road

Los Angeles 2.03 – two games – ARI and ANA

Vancouver 2.10 – two games – CBJ and CGY

Tampa Bay 2.15 – two games – DET and PIT

San Jose 2.61 – three games – all on road

Monday, February 1 to Sunday, February 7

Best Bets

Washington 4.41 – four games – three at home

Montreal 4.41 – four games – three at home

New York Islanders 3.90 – four games – MIN, WAS, DET and EDM

Edmonton 3.71 – four games – CBJ, OTT, MTL and NYI

Philadelphia 3.60 – four games – MTL, NSH, NYR and WAS

Steer Clear

Los Angeles 2.03 – two games – ARI and ANA

Vancouver 2.10 – two games – CBJ and CGY

Tampa Bay 2.15 – two games – DET and PIT

Carolina 2.61 – three games – all on road

San Jose 2.61 – three games – all on road

Tuesday, February 2 to Monday, February 8

Best Bets

Washington 4.41 – four games – three at home

Montreal 4.41 – four games – three at home

Ottawa 4.26 – four games – three at home

Detroit 4.20 – four games – TBL, NYI and FLAx2

Anaheim 4.17 – four games – SJS, LAK, ARI and PIT

Steer Clear

Los Angeles 2.03 – two games – ARI and ANA

Vancouver 2.10 – two games – CBJ and CGY

Carolina 2.61 – three games – all on road

San Jose 2.61 – three games – all on road

Arizona 2.70 – three games – LAK, CHI and ANA

Wednesday, February 3 to Tuesday, February 9

Best Bets

Montreal 4.41 – four games – all at home

Calgary 4.31 – four games – three at home

Florida 4.29 – four games – DETx2, PIT and BUF

Detroit 4.20 – four games – TBL, FLAx2 and NYI

Washington 4.15 – four games – NYI, NJD, PHI and NSH

Steer Clear

Arizona 1.75 – two games – CHI and ANA

Los Angeles 1.84 – two games – ANA and BOS

Carolina 2.61 – three games – all on road

San Jose 2.66 – three games – all on road

Dallas 2.80 – three games – two on road

Thursday, February 4 to Wednesday, February 10

Best Bets

Ottawa 4.41 – four games – three at home

Detroit 4.30 – four games – three at home

Florida 4.29 – four games – DETx2, PIT and BUF

Vancouver 4.29 – four games – CBJ, CGY, COL and ARI

Washington 4.15 – four games – NYI, NJD, PHI and NSH

Steer Clear

Carolina 1.61 – two games – both on road

Los Angeles 1.84 – two games – ANA and BOS

San Jose 2.66 – three games – all on road

Tampa Bay 2.71 – three games – two on road

Dallas 2.80 – three games – two on road

3 Comments

  1. Striker 2016-01-29 at 19:41

    Abdelkader over the last 7 weeks has been invisible playing with those players essentially the whole time?

  2. cdizz91 2016-01-29 at 20:58

    I have Namestiknov, him and TB have been hot and i expect big things from that team down the stretch. Is it worth dropping him for Zibanjead? Whats your advice boys? My league has the regular point platform which includes points for plus/minus and PIMS.

    • eicheltower16 2016-01-30 at 11:58

      I’d stick with Namestnikov. You know what you have with him. Plays on Stamkos’ line.

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