The Contrarian – Players and Prayers

Ian Gooding

2015-05-17

MikeGreen

Is there anything to the “contract year” phenomenon?

Everyone has heard of the idea that players in the last season of their contracts play better in order to do better with their future deal. They either earn an extension with their current team or seek a hefty raise on the open market.

We see examples of it every year, and this season is no exception.

Back on January 18, USA Today's Kevin Allen posted a list of what he thought were the Top 25 unrestricted free agent players for this summer.

Similarly on April 28, Sportsnet's Luke Fox posted his Top 15 UFA players.

Even if their rankings of the best free agent players available are different, both will list players that will induce you to believe the idea of contract years is a major incentive to players. They will perform better because they have a carrot dangling in front of them.

Allen and Fox do not explicitly say that this is the case. It is us who infer from these and others lists we come across that assume it must be true.

Player

Position

Team

Age

Cap Hit

USA Today

Sportsnet

Mike Green

D

WSH

29

$6,083,333

4

3

Martin St. Louis

RW

NYR

39

$5,625,000

9

6

Paul Martin

D

PIT

34

$5,000,000

7

8

Lubomir Visnovsky

D

NYI

38

$4,750,000

23

 

Erik Cole

LW

DET

36

$4,500,000

25

 

Drew Stafford

RW

WIN

29

$4,000,000

21

 

Christian Ehrhoff

D

PIT

32

$4,000,000

2

10

Antti Niemi

G

SJS

31

$3,800,000

 

11

Antoine Vermette

C

CHI

32

$3,750,000

5

7

Justin Williams

RW

LAK

33

$3,650,000

14

14

Francois Beauchemin

D

ANA

34

$3,500,000

13

13

Johnny Oduya

D

CHI

33

$3,375,000

10

 

Cody Franson

D

NSH

27

$3,300,000

6

4

Michael Frolik

RW

WIN

27

$3,300,000

19

15

Barret Jackman

D

STL

34

$3,166,666

22

 

Jeff Petry

D

MON

27

$3,075,000

12

 

Joel Ward

RW

WSH

34

$3,000,000

 

12

Jiri Tlusty

C

WIN

27

$2,950,000

18

 

Curtis Glencross

LW

WSH

32

$2,550,000

24

 

Brad Richards

C

CHI

35

$2,000,000

17

 

Eric Fehr

C

WSH

29

$1,500,000

20

 

Matt Beleskey

LW

ANA

26

$1,350,000

11

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9

Jhonas Enroth

G

DAL

26

$1,250,000

16

 

Mike Ribeiro

C

NSH

35

$1,050,000

8

2

Carl Soderberg

C

BOS

29

$1,008,333

3

5

Devan Dubnyk

G

MIN

29

$800,000

 

1


Note:
USA Today's list is missing Johnny Boychuk (1) and Mats Zuccarello (15) because they signed extensions.

We could go through the list and argue who should be ranked higher or lower. We could analyze if these players deserve raises with their next deal. We could ponder which teams they will end up on.

The fact is that they have done well enough this season that they will be sought after by teams.

What about the others?

According to GeneralFanager.com, there are a total of 293 unrestricted free agents. Here are the Top players not on Allen's or Fox's lists, based on their Cap Hit.

Player

Position

Team

Age

Cap Hit

Shawn Horcoff

C

DAL

36

$5,500,000

Sergei Gonchar

D

MON

41

$5,000,000

Martin Erat

RW

ARI

33

$4,500,000

Tomas Fleischmann

LW

ANA

30

$4,500,000

Mike Fisher

C

NSH

34

$4,200,000

Chris Stewart

RW

MIN

27

$4,150,000

Andrej Meszaros

D

BUF

29

$4,125,000

Daniel Briere

C

COL

37

$4,000,000

Zbynek Michalek

D

STL

32

$4,000,000

Eric Brewer

D

TOR

36

$3,875,000

Sheldon Souray

D

ANA

38

$3,666,666

Michael Ryder

RW

NJD

35

$3,500,000

Bryan Allen

D

MON

34

$3,500,000

Matt Cullen

C

NSH

38

$3,500,000

Scottie Upshall

LW

FLA

31

$3,500,000

Jan Hejda

D

COL

36

$3,250,000

Jarret Stoll

C

LAK

32

$3,250,000

Bryce Salvador

D

NJD

39

$3,166,666

Tomas Kopecky

RW

FLA

33

$3,000,000

Robyn Regehr

D

LAK

35

$3,000,000

Marek Zidlicky

D

DET

38

$3,000,000


Note:
Rich Peverley was removed from the list because he is on the long-term injury reserve list.

What happened? Did they not realize that they were in their contract year?

You could argue that Mike Fisher does not belong on the list especially since it has been rumored that he is not considering retiring anymore. The other guys had rough years though.

Their teams are looking forward to seeing them go, making cap and roster space for new players. Montreal's Marc Bergevin has already indicated that he will not try to keep Sergei Gonchar. Martin Erat could not have been chased out of Arizona fast enough and now I'm reading that the same could be true for Marek Zidlicky.

The players on this list are slightly a bit older than the first one, but they are within the same range.

It cuts both ways. You have to be prepared, especially if you are in a keeper league and are trading over the summer. Some owners like to use it as an influencing point during trade negotiations.

Fans and teams pray for contract years, for good and not so good reasons.

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