The Contrarian – Targeting Systems On

Ian Gooding

2015-06-21

brandon saad

What concern does The Contrarian have about the players whose fantasy stock has increased after a strong playoff?

Before we start, I want to congratulate the Chicago Blackhawks on their Stanley Cup victory this season! I'll know better than to write them off in the first round next season.

Not surprisingly, two of the young Hawks are mentioned in Pete Jensen's article about drafting playoff performers in your hockey pools. The article is found on NHL.com.

He identifies several young players who had an impact in the playoffs. He deems them to be underrated and that they could be had in the mid to late rounds of your drafts.

In order of how they appear in his article:

Jakob Silfverberg is identified as having the best points per sixty minutes rate (3.55) of all players who played at least six games.

If only our pools were evaluated on points per minutes played instead of total points. In mind that it is meant to be an indicator for a big performance for next season, history indicates that the 24-year-old Silfverberg is around a half-point per game player (81/181). His totals might go up if he were to be playing with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, but there are no guarantees that will happen.

Alex Killorn registered the third-most number of shots in the playoffs is second on his list. Jensen identifies that Jonathan Drouin might bump him off the Steven StamkosValtteri Filppula line, but his playoff performance has earned him the opportunity to start with them next year.

Killorn outperformed his regular season career half-point per game pace with a total of 20 career playoff points in 30 games. At best it might mean Filppula gets shifted to center another line and Killorn plays with Stamkos and Drouin.

JT Miller and Kevin Hayes are next, mainly because of the injury to Mats Zuccarello and the highly probable departure of Martin St. Louis from the club. They are 22 and 23 years old respectively and both are first-round draft picks.

The two Blackhawks on the list are Brandon Saad and Teuvo Teravainen. I will argue that Saad has already been on the minds of many owners, and his 47 and 52-point seasons over the last two years don't make him underrated. Teravainen, on the other hand, has not put up any similar numbers yet.

But everyone likes to pick players on winners. With the Hawks' third Cup in six years, it is going to be hard to get other owners to forget about these guys.

Evgeny Kuznetsov is also identified by Jensen this time because his shots per game nearly doubled in the playoffs. Again no guarantees, but it's a nice to see this 23 year old get a chance. Hopefully it continues in the 2015-16 season.

Lastly for the purposes of my article, we take a look at Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. More of the same type of reasoning. High shots per game ratio for Smith and Wilson and tied for the most playoff goals in just six games was reason for Jensen declaring they both have 50 point potential.

Well, Smith had previously hit the fifty-point mark two seasons ago. Wilson has averaged a half-point a game for his career (178/368).

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I have written my simple objections to his reasoning for optimism of increased performances, but my main argument is not about individual assessments and team analysis breakdowns. My argument is that Jensen has missed the target. He is too late.

Most of these guys listed have probably been taken in your keeper leagues already.

For example, in my keeper league, seven of the nine players listed are already owned and they have been owned for a while now.

If you wait too long, these guys are not available to be drafted. You've got to trade for them and it costs more, especially if they've had productive playoff stints.

Which leads right into this week's NHL Draft. Owners should always be prepared to draft potential and be patient with it. Like a farmer who plants seeds and grows crops.

Sure, it will be easy to go after the Connor McDavids and Jack Eichels because they are rated so highly, but what about the guys that get selected after them? That's what the players on Jensen's list were.

We want someone else to put in the effort to develop those other prospects, and then we hope to draft them (or trade) just before they have ripened. We try to minimize the time and risk.

If fantasy owners do not have some level of internal growth, then they'll forever be chasing after players like the ones mentioned by Jensen. This is why fantasy owners should pay attention and prepare for what will occur this Friday. There is no better way to start than by getting Dobber's Prospects Guide.

Otherwise we will be constantly chasing after and continuing to miss the targets.

The Contrarian – Meep Meep

The Contrarian – No Time

The Contrarian – There Is Always a Hitch

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