Real or Imagined – Defensemen (2014)

Doran Libin

2014-12-01

AlexPietrangelo

 

Buy, sell or hold? Taking a close look at the Western Conference defensemen

 

The single most important success factor for defensemen is the amount of power play time they get. On the power play is when defensemen get the chance to drive possession and put up points as they become more of an offensive focal point. A distant second for defensemen is on-ice shooting percentage – the percentage of their team's shots that result in goals. This factor is important for defensemen because in general they rely heavily on assists to get points. In fact, no defenseman has reached 30 goals since Mike Green in 2008/9 and only 13 defensemen have scored 20 goals in a season in the last 15 years, conversely Mark Giordano already has 19 assists this season. For this reason, on-ice shooting percentage is more important for defensemen than their individual shooting percentage.

 

None of the Oilers defensemen is a must own. Justin Schultz is the only one worth a gamble but that is contingent on the Oilers power play finding some other form than that of a tire fire. As long as the Edmonton power play is misfiring to the tune of a 12% success rate do not expect any of the defensemen to achieve of anything. Schultz is worth a gamble if you either believe in the Oilers ability to improve their power play or you can hide Schultz on your bench until he does.

 

Los Angeles

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Doughty

23

12

28:59

3:52

Hold/Sell

McNabb

8

5

16:33

0:40

Waive

Regehr

20

3

19:22

0:10

Waive

Muzzin

17

10

23:15

3:03

Hold/Buy

Greene

23

2

17:02

0:09

Waive

Martinez

17

7

19:42

1:58

Buy

 

Drew Doughty is overrated from a fantasy perspective as he has been at best a 40 point defenseman thus far in his career and as such his fantasy value is vastly outstripped by his real life value. Everyone knows about Doughty; if you want to strike gold in LA go with Jake Muzzin. If this was a financial show I would be required to tell you that I am heavily invested in Jake Muzzin Inc. Muzzin is on a 50 point pace and normally I would be wary of putting a buy label on him but he has a few things working for him. First, the Slava Voynov suspension opens up more offensive opportunities for other King defensemen and Muzzin seems to be taking advantage. Second, Muzzin does not have a ton of name recognition and appears set on breaking out this season. Third, nothing Muzzin is doing thus far is unsustainable as he is scoring on less than 5% of his shots and has a PDO under 100 while still dominating possession. Alec Martinez is also an interesting option potentially set to benefit from Voynov's absence. Martinez is not setup to succeed quite as well as Muzzin as he plays more of a defensive role on a pairing with Robyn Regehr. He also has an unsustainable on-ice shooting percentage hovering over 13%. Even with those factors working against him look for Martinez to easily better last year's 22 points.

 

Minnesota

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Suter

21

11

29:19

4:47

Hold/Buy

Scandella

19

7

21:43

0:32

Sell

Spurgeon

16

8

24:43

3:23

Buy

Brodin

12

2

23:44

1:38

Sell

Prosser

17

2

14:22

0:00

Waive

Dumba

19

4

12:29

1:38

Gamble

 

Ryan Suter is the well-known workhorse on the Wild defense playing almost half of each game with almost twice as much power play time as any other Wild defenseman. As a known commodity producing at his regular levels there is not a lot of extra value to be found in Suter except for the bump he will receive if the power play ever gets going. Jared Spurgeon on the other hand tends to be underrated and is getting lots of power play time. He is on close to a 40 point pace at this point in the season while starting over a third of his shifts in the offensive zone. The favourable zone starts should help to compensate for the slightly elevated on-ice shooting percentage. Marco Scandella has been getting a lot of attention for the game winning goals he has been potting lately but do not buy the hype. Scandella gets the tough assignments with primarily defensive zone starts and has elevated individual and on-ice shooting percentages. He also does not get the power play time that could provide value for Suter and Spurgeon if the Wild ever score again on the power play. You know you're in trouble when Buffalo is the only team enviable of your power play. If you have depth and are willing to gamble Matt Dumba makes for an intriguing option. He gets a bit of power play time and could start to see elevated levels of production if the Wild ever figure it out.

 

Nashville

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Weber

21

12

26:48

3:00

Hold

Josi

21

10

26:20

3:03

Hold

Ellis

21

9

18:45

1:57

Buy

Ekholm

21

6

17:43

0:36

Buy

Jones

21

5

17:52

1:21

Hold/Sell

Volchenkov

17

2

13:49

0:00

Waive

 

Shea Weber and Roman Josi are the clear cut number one pairing in Nashville, and both warrant holding on to, but there is a second duo making waves. Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm are driving possession at over a 58% clip. They also have better even strength shot rates than the power duo of Weber and Josi, partially due to the favourable zone starts they receive. Ellis makes the better option as he receives a lot more power play time but Ekholm still makes for a good depth pick up as he should threaten 25 points. The emergence of Ellis and Ekholm has made it tougher for Seth Jones to emerge, thus even though he sees the same amount of power play time as Ellis he has half the points. Jones probably has more name value than actual fantasy value at this point. 

 

San Jose

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Braun

24

7

21:21

0:34

Sell

Vlasic

24

6

22:25

1:25

Buy

Burns

24

19

23:20

3:25

Hold

Dillon

22

0

19:25

0:11

Waive

Mueller

21

3

17:27

0:29

Waive

Hannan

17

0

16:01

0:05

Waive

Irwin

11

3

17:31

1:02

Waive

 

Brent Burns is scoring like he is still a forward and other than his individual shooting percentage of 11% he shows no signs of slowing down. There is one other defenseman in San Jose who warrants some attention based on his power play minutes. The defenseman known as 'Pickles' has not yet produced much for San Jose with only 6 points in 25 games but he is receiving valuable power play time and generating the most shots per 60 minutes at even strength of any Sharks defenseman. This adds up to a bump for Vlasic and his first 30 plus point season. The only drawback to betting on Vlasic is the way Sharks rely on him to be a defensive presence. His other peripherals suggest that should not be much of a problem.

 

St Louis

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Pietrangelo

22

11

25:50

2:30

Hold

Shattenkirk

22

17

22:36

3:32

Hold/Sell High

Bouwmeester

20

2

23:13

1:36

Buy

Cole

22

1

15:37

0:26

Waive

Jackman

22

4

16:55

0:01

Waive

Gunnarsson

15

4

16:48

0:05

Waive

 

Shattenkirk's early season successes have been well documented. The guy jumps out to nearly a point per game pace before falling back closer to 50 points by the end of the season. Shattenkirk's numbers are not unsustainable so hold onto him unless you can flip him to someone who is not aware of the aforementioned trend. Pietrangelo is the better real life option of the St Louis two-headed defensive hydra. He is behind his normal pace as he is losing power play time because he is expected to carry more of the defensive burden. Last year Shattenkirk saw 40 more minutes of power play time total, but this year the gap is already at 20 minutes just over a quarter of the way through the season; that could mean approximately an extra minute of power play time per game for Shattenkirk. Jay Bouwmeester is the only other Blues defensemen seeing any power-play time worth noting getting the minute and a half that neither Shattenkirk nor Pietrangelo want. Bouwmeester only has 2 points after 20 games and has somehow managed to only get in on 14% of the goals scored while he is on the ice. He may not threaten 40 points this year but picking him up while his numbers are so low is advisable.

 

Vancouver

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Edler

22

8

23:56

2:56

Buy

Bieksa

22

3

21:34

2:01

Sell

Tanev

22

6

20:30

0:28

Waive

Hamhuis

20

6

20:36

1:56

Waive

Sbisa

17

3

18:05

0:03

Waive

Weber

17

4

16:08

0:58

Waive

Stanton

12

2

15:21

0:01

Waive

 

Vancouver is getting very little from their defensemen with only seven goals after 24 games. All but two of the Canuck defenseman have PDO's under 100 as this group seems as allergic to scoring goals as Brock Castillo was to ricin. Bieksa's numbers are particularly confusing as the Canucks score on 10% of their shots when he is on the ice at even strength but only 3.5% when on the power play. For most of the Canucks defensemen the low PDO's seem to be more about poor save percentages behind them. That low on-ice shooting percentage likely stems from the obscenely low rate at which the Canucks generate shots when Bieksa and Hamhuis are on the power play. Edler at least seems to generate at a reasonable shot rate when on the power play. The Canucks' problems stem from their recurring lack of a real power play quarterback as neither Edler nor Bieksa have shown the ability to function in that capacity. Edler at least generates shots when on the power play making him a viable value play.

 

Winnipeg

 

 

Games Played

Points

Time on Ice (TOI)

Power Play TOI

Status

Trouba

24

7

23:16

1:47

Buy

Bogosian

23

8

22:42

1:29

Waive

Stuart

24

5

19:39

0:03

Waive

Enstrom

22

9

25:07

4:18

Buy

Postma

24

3

13:38

0:27

Waive

Clitsome

15

1

14:04

0:05

Waive

Pardy

12

2

14:57

0:02

Waive

 

The Jets have not yet shown the ability to score consistently when their defensemen are on the ice, which may become a problem as defensemen have proven to be something of a staple in hockey. None of the Jets defensemen have an on-ice shooting percentage over 8% with Trouba just over 4%. This may have something to do with their best defenseman offensive struggling to produce as a forward. Currently, Mark Stuart is the only Jets defenseman to have scored for the Jets at even strength this year. If this glacial pace continues the Jets will get a quarter of the even strength goals from their defense that they did last year. As long as the Jets continue to marginalize Byfuglien as a third line forward don't expect their offense to get back on track. Byfuglien was a driving force in the Jets offense last year averaging over 32 shots per 60 at even strength, whereas in his new role he is at just 25.5. Despite this both Trouba and Enstrom generate over 55 shots per 60 on the power play and should start to see some production from the one area of the game where the Jets use Byfuglien properly. It is a good opportunity to buy low and hope that Paul Maurice figures out the key to Byfuglien's success.

This was initially going to be a three part series but because this part on defensemen is so long the part on forwards will be broken into two.

 

From last week – a look at the goaltenders

 

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