November 10, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-11-10

Ryan Kesler scores his first but continues to decline, Lindback showing signs in the Coyote crease and more.

Quiet Monday for on-ice action as the new crop of Hall-of-Famers were inducted. Worthy, all of them. Then again, I tend to be more inclusive than exclusive when it comes to the Hall of Fame. The point is to celebrate and promote the game. You don’t go willy-nilly letting anyone into the Hall but if you can make a solid case with all the round numbers that everyone likes to see then there is little harm.

Where it gets contentious is when certain guys get in and others don’t. But that’s yet another reason to be inclusive. Then again, maybe the best thing for promoting the game is the Hall-of-Fame debate.

In any case, great class this year.

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Anders Lindback made a rare start for the Coyotes. In fact, just his third of the season. He looked excellent, despite giving up three goals, as he was forced to turn aside several quality chances from the Ducks.

Lindback’s numbers in five appearances: 2-2-0, 1.99 goals-against average, 0.928 save percentage.

Dobber talked yesterday about looking for this year’s Devan Dubnyk. I am not saying that that is what is happening here but would it really be that strange if it was?

In any case, Lindback has earned a little more rope in the Arizona crease though he is unlikely to get the start tonight given the back-to-back.

The Ducks have been exceedingly generous to the Coyotes gifting 11 power play chances across the two games and conceding four goals in each of them.

Anthony Duclair scored a hat-trick the last time these two played but has since cooled off. He did score a goal last night but it was his first point after a seven-game drought.

Max Domi nearly turned a trick of his own last night but had to settle for just two goals as he attempts to keep pace with Artemi Panarin in the rookie race. For whatever reason, I just can’t take Domi as seriously as Panarin, or Jack Eichel for scoring this season. Maybe it’s the 20% shooting percentage, which just has to regress or the fact that the Coyotes just don’t have that much firepower around him to carry Domi through the lean times. Perhaps it’s his size and his age. Probably some combination of all those factors. In the end, He probably struggles to get more than 50 points. I hate to be negative when Domi is playing such a dangerous brand of hockey but that’s where I’m at thus far.

Domi, had he completed the hat-trick would have broken Duclair’s record as the youngest Coyote to record a hat-trick since Peter Mueller. Remember him? Yet more evidence that nothing is certain but death and taxes.

Mikkel Boedker with another two points, giving him 11 in the past nine games. I expect him to challenge for 60 points this season, especially now that he has resumed his position alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the power play. These two play practically the entire power play sometimes. It’s a lucrative spot, one I’d hoped Michael Stone would be occupying but the Coyotes seem to have resolved some of their breakdowns that have led to shorthanded chances for the opposition.

Actually, Josh Manson got a glorious chance off a 3-on-2 break while the Ducks were short but that was with Stone and Boedker on the ice, so this isn’t necessarily indicative of a breakdown from the top unit.

I’m going to give Stone one more game on my roster and then I’ll be hunting for someone else. I’d probably make the swap today but since the Coyotes have a game tonight, I wouldn’t gain any tactical advantage. Better to save the move for tomorrow.

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I ranted and raved about the Ducks’ top line, with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry joined by Patrick Maroon, all weekend and they got shutout last night. They managed just one SOG between the three of them. Just a total whitewashing. Excellent work by Martin Hanzal and the rest of the Coyotes to win that battle.

I made Maroon one of my big pickups for this week given his hot run on the top line from the weekend, as well as the Ducks’ favourable Monday-Wednesday-Friday, off-night schedule this week. So far that looks to be in shambles. By midway through the second period Bruce Boudreau was shuffling his lines, all but benching Maroon for stretches.

Maroon did still draw in on the top power-play unit for a big late-game opportunity so not all hope is lost.

Crazy fact: Sami Vatanen is the top goal-scorer for the Ducks thus far with three. He’s got four points in his last five games but still has an extremely low total overall. Barring injury, he’ll get to 40 and probably pile on some nice peripherals as well so he makes for a great buy low still. Though maybe not after the two-point night. Wait for the next doughnut and make your best pitch.

Just in case you aren’t sold on Vatanen here’s a reminder: he scored 12 goals in just 67 games last season, while scoring at a 45-point pace. He averages over 2.0 SOG per game and skates on the top PP unit. That last bit may not mean much given the Ducks’ PP struggles over the past few years but even on bad teams some PP time is better than none.

Tied with Vatanen for the team lead in goals is Chris Stewart who has scored all three goals and five points in his last five games. He’s streaky so this run won’t last long – it might already be over – but if you need a filler on Wednesday and Friday, you could do worse.

Ryan Kesler had a whale of game scoring his first goal of the season and adding an assist. He had a ton of other scoring chances as well. Definitely a positive sign given how snake-bitten he has been. Word of caution, however: Kesler is not what he used to be. He is firmly a 45-point player. Maybe on a different team with top PP duties and a PP that actually scored he might be able to crank it up into the high 50’s but on this team, the projection is 45.

Kesler remains a strong multi-category option but his offensive game is in such decline that his SOG have dropped to less than 2.0 per game. This is a guy who has put up over 200 SOG in each of the last five 82-game seasons. The scoring is nice but the overall trend is negative.

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Rick Nash is expected to be back tonight, which should help Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello.

The hot line for the Rangers is the third one with Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg and Viktor Stalberg. These three are card carrying members of the all-efficiency club all ranking in the top-40 in points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Some of this is the result of some unsustainable shooting percentages as Lindberg and Stalberg have seen over 14% of shots go in while they’ve been on the ice, nearly double the league average. Hayes, meanwhile, is also above average at 11.4%.

But this highly efficient scoring is nothing new for Hayes and Stalberg who both scoring over two points-per-60 last season.

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Lots of folks (myself included) were projecting a Hayes breakout because of an expanded role but maybe he is best used as an excellent third-liner, shredding other teams’ depth lines. If that’s the case he’s the new Benoit Pouliot, which means he has a fat contract headed his way sometime soon here. And I think Pouliot has been worth every penny, he’s just no longer a bargain.

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Pascal Dupuis is back at practice and expects to play Wednesday night.

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Ondrej Palat will miss 3-5 weeks with an ankle injury. Not what his owners needed after what was already a slow start. There’s a buy low window here though. Keep in mind Palat has been a 60-point player the past two seasons. That didn’t just suddenly dry up. He won’t get to 60 this season but he’ll probably get to 50 in 70. If you are doing the math at home that means 43 points in his final 54 games. I bet you could use that.

Jonathan Drouin appears ready to return and is practicing on the top line with Steven Stamkos and Valtteri Filppula. Drouin is owned in 40% of leagues so you may or may not find him available.

Another option for a Palat replacement is Alex Killorn who has grabbed a spot alongside the other two Triplets. He’s got just one point in the last five games though, so maybe not the best replacement. As mentioned earlier, I snagged Maroon as my Palat replacement and am very excited about the results.

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The Canucks have recalled Jacob Markstrom from his conditioning stint, sending down Richard Bachman.

Ryan Miller has been excellent thus far, but with Markstrom back we will see less of him. Not hard considering Miller has started 14 of 15 games thus far. But even getting to 65 starts will be a challenge for Miller. The window to sell high is shutting.

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The Sharks will get Melker Karlsson back this week. He’ll skate on the third line so there’s not a ton of fantasy value here.

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Apparently the Red Wings have had Pavel Datsyuk skating with Henrik Zetterberg and Dylan Larkin, which is so much awesome on one line that I want to scream. Whether or not the lines play out like that in actual games remains to be seen but it does lend something to the notion that Larkin won’t slow down so much going forward.

I expect to see Datsyuk reunited with Tomas Tatar at some point. They made some magic last season.

The big loser is Justin Abdelkader who would slide down to the third line but as long as he is on the top PP unit he’ll retain some fantasy value.

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Interesting look at how Duncan Keith’s toughness probably cost him more time due to injury than if he had just reported it in the offseason. This is all tied into the Cup hangover and other things one must consider after teams go that deep into the playoffs. Of course, tell that to Patrick Kane.

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The Predators have recalled Marek Mazanec on an emergency basis. With no back-to-backs this week, it is doubtful we see Mazanec on the ice.

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Check out my weekly spot on SiriusXM’s Hockey Unfiltered show every Sunday. Here’s a link to this past week’s show.

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Ian Gooding recommends goalies to start and sit this week.

 

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Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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