November 11, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-11-11
Cammalleri is good, Elias has intriguing splits, Giordano to regress and more…
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Take a moment out of your day to remember those who fought and continue to fight for our freedom. Lest we forget.
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Good news, Cory Schneider wasn't yanked for the third straight start. Of course, he also allowed four goals for yet another loss. If he had been pulled after the second I wouldn't have been surprised. After all, he did allow four goals on 20 shots through two periods. Schneider has started every game for the Devils this season. When are we going to see Kinkaid? Schneider needs a break.
You can't totally blame Schneider. The Devils haven't been playing that puck possession game that has been their trademark for years. In fact, the Devils have been a negative possession team so far this season.
They've also been fairly banged up. Adam Henrique and Ryane Clowe both missed last night's contest.
The Devils did get Mike Cammalleri back, which was a huge boost. He was easily their best player. He notched two assists and generated a number of other chances including one which he rung off the bar. He definitely still has skills.
Cammalleri is key to getting this team scoring. His return immediately paid dividends for Travis Zajac and Jaromir Jagr who each scored goals skating on the top line with Cammalleri. At this point those three might be the only Devil forwards I'm interested in owning and really, I'm only interested if Cammalleri is healthy. Zajac, in particular, is droppable if one of his wingers is hurt.
They do have Patrik Elias who is intriguing. From what I've seen this season he's been frisky but they haven't given him much to work with. Elias has skated with the likes of Clowe, Damian Brunner, Martin Havlat, Dainius Zubrus, Henrique, and Michael Ryder, which is like a who's who of middling forwards.
Elias also hasn't had much puck luck. He's personally shooting just 5.3% despite being a career 12.4% shooter. Meanwhile, he and his linemates have combined for just 3.4% shooting while Elias has been on the ice at even strength. He might just be the unluckiest player so far this season (other than those who have suffered injuries.)
At some point it's going to flip and Elias is going to be worth owning. I wish I knew when that was. The good news is we can consults these things known as split stats. I don't usually buy into splits all that much, especially not for younger players because the sample size is usually so small but for Elias we have sample sizes that are larger than two seasons' worth of games so we can probably draw some conclusions. Check out his month-by-month points per-game splits:
October – 0.76
November – 0.72
December – 0.82
January – 0.91
February – 0.91
March – 0.89
April – 0.90
These samples still aren't outside the realm of random chance but it would certainly seem that if ever there was a case to be made about a player being a slow starter, it would be for Elias. If you combine October through December to determine a first-half average and January through April for a second-half average, you are basically looking at the difference between a 62-point pace and a 74-point pace, which in a lot of pools is the difference between the waiver wire and a regular lineup spot.
I'm skeptical but if you are going to buy into splits then look for Elias to wake up right around New Year's.
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I'm going to speak for all Tuukka Rask owners when I say that I am quite pleased that he is back to his normal self. We never doubted you, big fella! And sure, his numbers this season are still on the wrong side of average. Rask still hasn't recorded a shutout yet this season either. But he's won four in a row now in satisfyingly efficient fashion.
Reilly Smith appears to be waking up as well. Patrice Bergeron was the big scorer for Boston last night with three points but he helped bring Smith along with him for two of his own. Smith now has five points in his last three games and seven in his last seven. Enjoy the streak while you can but don't get left holding the bag when it ends. Smith is finishing up with right around 50 points once again, no matter how he gets there.
What's interesting is that Brad Marchand, Smith and Bergeron's linemate, had a fantastic game but finished with no points, ending a four-game scoring streak in which he had scored seven points. He always plays with fire but it seems to have been burning especially bright under his rear end of late. I'm going to say that Marchand is responding positively to this new found thing called power play ice time, which had eluded him for much of his first few years in Boston.
Marchand's upside totally changes if power play time becomes a regular occurrence for him. Thus far his career high is 55, which came in 2011-12 when he scored six points on the power play. Marchand also has another season of 53, which saw him score just two PPP. If he can continue to produce ~50 even-strength points then with a regular power play shift his upside moves from 50-60 into the 65-75 range. I'm still treating Marchand like a 50-point guy until proven otherwise but I'm intrigued by where this could lead.
Do I mention the dive Marchand took late in the third last night? Okay, I mentioned it. Anyone surprised? Okay. Moving on.
Torey Krug made his return to the Bruin lineup and not a moment too soon with the injuries continuing to mount for the Bruins. He was pointless with one shot in 21:16 but I didn't see any visible signs of rust.
David Krejci missed last night's contest. He's really had the injury bug going the past few weeks. I say "injury bug" because the team hasn't officially disclosed his injury. Scuttlebutt on Twitter has it as his hip. I say take as much time as needed and comeback HEALTHY. No more stopping and starting.
Even without Krejci in the lineup Seth Griffith continues to produce. Okay, that's kind of a lie, his goal last night was his first in five games but you have to applaud the amazing effort:
For more thoughts on the Hurricanes goaltending situation please consult my ramblings from last week where I went in depth.
I don't want to overreact to this streak by the Hurricanes but it's worth noting that their underlying numbers look pretty solid. Take your pick of possession stats and they grade out as positive. Combine that with power plays and penalty kills that rank around middle of the pack and this is a decent team so long as they get decent goaltending and puck luck. With Ward coming around on the goaltending side they have the makings of a playoff contender rather than the bottom feeder some *cough* me *cough* wrote them off to be.
Of course, we can be pretty sure that this ends the way the last several have for the Hurricanes, where they don't suck enough to get a top pick but aren't good enough for the playoffs. They do have a shot because they are in the East and everyone outside of Buffalo gets a shot but I'm not ready to take Carolina that seriously yet. You can't help but wonder if Hurricane fans weren't rooting for a season from hell in order to snag a top pick and a franchise guy rather than another one of these limbo years.
Clearly this team has other ideas. Blame Justin Faulk who has gone bananas in November. Faulk scored three points last night to give him eight in the past six games. I hate, hate, hate when I get caught up in a narrative and write off a young player too early after liking him so much before. Did you know that it was a profile on Faulk that got me my start writing for DobberHockey? I loved this kid before it was cool. I projected him for "Dan Boyle upside." Then after two years in the NHL and at just 22 years old, I gave up on Faulk.
Gave up on is maybe too strong. I knew he was awesome. He'd proven as much. He just wasn't panning out for fantasy purposes and he seemed to struggle with running the power play, which capped his upside. I just seriously doubted how he'd become a great fantasy asset playing on this team while seeing second unit power play minutes. It should be noted, he's still seeing second power play time. He doesn't care right now.
I don't trust Faulk in a one-year, still. His usage just isn't where I want it to be. But let this flurry be a reminder of the upside he has. And a reminder that young players do improve. Also, let it be a reminder that I am an idiot. If you remember nothing else from these ramblings, remember that most all.
With four points in his last three games Jeff Skinner is either on a hot streak or he and Jay McClement have developed the sort of lasting chemistry that is going to vault Skinner into the midst of the elite scorers. I haven't decided which yet.
On the other hand, Alexander Semin, also skating on that line with McClement also has a three-game scoring streak on the go. Semin is still looking for his first goal of the season but it feels like it's coming after he rang one of the inside of the bar only for Jonas Hiller to glove the ricochet before it could trickle in.
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The regression process is slowly beginning for Hiller. We all knew it was coming, especially with how miserably the Flames have performed from an advanced stats perspective. Seriously, pick a stat, the Flames have been getting outshot an extreme rate. The only way to continue winning was for the extraordinary goaltending to continue. I can't say for certain that it won't but Hiller has allowed three goals or more in each of his last three starts. It feels like the amazing run is coming to an end.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Flames will stop winning. Maybe they start playing a better possession game while their team PDO drops from third in the league closer to middle of the pack. Or maybe they'll go full Colorado and sustain a ludicrous PDO on their way to an unlikely playoff berth. I refuse to rule it out. More likely, they go full Toronto and collapse like a house of cards. The point being, have you sold high on Hiller yet? The window is closing. I've tried in the Expert's League but so far no one is biting.
The good news for Mark Giordano owners is that he appears to be regression-proof. He notched an assist on the only Flames goal last night, which extended his scoring streak to seven games and bumped him into a tie for third in league scoring. Have I mentioned the notion of selling high yet in these ramblings?
One more sell-high for the Flames: Johnny Gaudreau. How many players have a higher on-ice shooting percentage than Gaudreau right now? The answer is three. Some will call it "the rookie wall." I'll call it the regression monster.
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One more sell-high, this time not related to the Flames: I just watched Jamie Benn get traded for Vladimir Tarasenko, straight-up, one-for-one, in a dynasty league. I'm not saying that that trade is "jumping off your roof to see if you can fly" type of insanity but it's only a step or two below that.
The GM trading for Tarasenko, let's call him Wile E. Coyote, is quite obviously banking on Tarasenko developing into a superstar better than Benn. The problem is that Benn is really good and more importantly, he's a proven commodity. Also, Benn is only a couple years older than Tarasenko and not necessarily a finished product himself.
Anyways, it's a trade I'd never make FOR Tarasenko. We're all hoping Tarasenko even gets to Benn's level, let alone surpasses it. Don't get too cute. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
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The Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy rankings are back again. Weekly reminder, the Schultz goes to the defenseman with the highest plus/minus but also scores less than 30 points. Essentially it's a celebration of players who become fantasy assets for reasons other than their scoring ability, like Jeff Schultz when he went Plus-50 in 2009-10.
Who had some of the best "Schultz seasons" ever? Glad you asked. Now, the power rankings:
1. Anton Stralman – Plus-14
Stralman continues to lead the way. Skating for a team with the league's best record will do that for you. So will skating for the team with the fourth-best even-strength goal differential.
The Lightning are a team to be reckoned with and Stralman's role in that shouldn't be underestimated. He leads the team in time on ice and is a reliable two-way defenseman. With 10 points in 15 contests, Stralman is a threat to play his way right out of contention for this trophy. With Victor Hedman back skating again we will soon see Stralman's power play time scaled back, which should curb his scoring but seeing the Norris Trophy contender return as his defense partner can only help his plus/minus.
2. Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Plus-11
Even after his team lost two of three contests last week, Vlasic continues to make progress in defense of his title. Even more impressively, Vlasic is not only among the league leaders in plus/minus but he is doing so on a team that is allowing more goals than they score at even strength. That should give us some cause for concern about Vlasic given his team high PDO is among the league leaders as well.
Vlasic's presence on this list is not all that surprising since we know he is a quality player but given the underlying stats it seems like he may be fading fast.
T3. Alec Martinez – Plus-Nine
The Kings are off to a bit of a slow start with only the 70's line contributing much in the way of scoring but they continue to play excellent defense. That has helped them to the third-best even-strength goal differential in the league. That has been a boon for Martinez who is a second/third-pairing defenseman on this club.
As is a common theme on this list, Martinez boasts one of the top PDO numbers in the league (30th to be exact.) Some regression is headed his way but you can only expect so much while he skates for a dominant Kings club. Just as importantly, since no one on this team scores that much (Tyler Toffoli excluded) Martinez is unlikely to lose eligibility from producing too many points. Hell, at this rate we might see Drew Doughty win this award.
T3. Andrew Greene – Plus-Nine
Even while losing 4-2 last night, Greene goes a plus-one to hang in the Schultz race. As mentioned above, the Devils are not playing their usual possession game, which seriously calls into question Greene's candidacy for the long haul.
Sure enough, like everyone else on this list, Greene is sporting an abnormally large PDO. If the Devils continue to play this poorly Greene is going to have a tough time staying in the black even if he is one of the more consistent defensemen in the league.
T5. Jason Garrison – Plus-Eight
For many of the same situational reasons that Stralman is a candidate, teammate Garrison also qualifies. Working against Garrison is that booming slap shot of his. Coaches cannot resist parading it out there on the power play for all the world to see. Never mind the fact that Garrison has had his problems with accuracy and isn't much of a threat beyond that booming clapper. It's a weapon of mass destruction and the firing key is stuck in the on position.
It seems likely that Garrison will play his way out of contention for this award. He has scored at a 33-point pace over the past three seasons (including scoring exactly 33 in each of the two full seasons that were played.) It seems he is headed for at least that many points this time around. He'll be owned in most fantasy leagues and not just for his plus/minus totals.
T5. Christian Ehrhoff – Plus-Eight
Ehrhoff is something of a surprise to appear on this list but not for the reasons you'd think. Sure, he is experiencing quite the turnaround from the minus-27 he posted in Buffalo last year but that turnaround was expected moving from one of the league's worst teams to one of the it's best. And Ehrhoff is plus-59 for his career. He's accustomed to keeping it in the black.
No, the reason for surprise is that Ehrhoff is normally scoring enough to eliminate him from the "Schultz conversation." Over the past six seasons Ehrhoff has scored at a 40-point pace that has made him a beloved commodity in fantasy circles. This season, the scoring just hasn't been there and I'm not even sure you can say that it's been bad luck.
Ehrhoff has the highest PDO of any player on this list ranking 19th in the entire league. You have to figure that he'll sustain that to some extent as the Penguins will continue to score at abnormal rates but the 0.981 save percentage his goalies have posted while he's been on the ice, well that is going to be impossible to sustain, especially when one of those goalies is named Marc-Andre Fleury.
A big reason why Ehrhoff might linger on this list is that he has become more likely to not lose eligibility by scoring too much. At stops in San Jose, Vancouver and Buffalo, Ehrhoff was always a top power play option. In Pittsburgh, he's a second unit guy and that second unit isn't particularly good. Ehrhoff has just one PPP this season and is looking like he will come up short of 10 if things continue at this rate.
Of course, if Kris Letang gets hurt (which has become a safe bet) then Ehrhoff may step into some extremely valuable minutes and re-establish himself as a fantasy asset worth owning. Until then, he'll have to settle for this list.
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Larry Brooks suggests that the NHL salary cap may not rise next season. That would certainly throw a wrench into the plans of some contenders. Say the Blackhawks for instance?
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Mike Fisher may return in the next two weeks. Isn't that shocking? I totally wrote that guy off for the year. Now apparently he's due back for a Predator team that may not even need him. They'll take him though, you can bet on that. He'll give the Predators a solid shutdown center to help keep the top line with James Neal, Mike Ribeiro and Filip Forsberg away from the toughest of matchups.
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One of my favourite prospects, Shayne Gostisbehere, is done for the year with a torn ACL. The good news for you is that maybe you get him cheaper in your keeper league. Just not if you pool with me.
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Fun profile on Peter Forsberg's legacy in Sweden.
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Adam Gretz talks about the future of hockey analytics including a nice anecdote from Ken Hitchcock on how some of the numbers have helped him to construct better lineups:
About the most candid response you might get from somebody associated with the NHL was something like what St. Louis Blues coach Ken Hitchcock offered before the season. He talked about how he used WOWY numbers (how a player performs with and without certain teammates) to help build line combinations and to figure out which groups were working and which ones were not. In an article written by Craig Custance of ESPN.com back in September, Hitchcock said this about line combinations and chemistry: “Chemistry is huge. It tells you basically how you’re coaching. For instance, last year there were three players I played together that I thought had good chemistry. The data showed me otherwise. When I looked back at their shifts, the data was right. I kept putting it back together thinking it was working or would work, but it didn’t work.”
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Scott Cullen with a statistical look at why Sidney Crosby is the best in the game, and how he is a step above the rest of the best. You'll note Thomas Vanek ranks as one of the highest points/60 players in the league based on the data in that article. Good ammo to use in going after Vanek if you can stomach the scoring streaks.
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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.