November 4, 2009

Dobber Sports

2009-11-04

Some afternoon rambling… first off, here is my having fun with a comparison of the mafia and the monopolies (Rogers, Bell, etc.) who run TV/phone/net.

 

Next, let’s talk some Carey Price. I own him in two of my three keeper leagues, and zero of my two one-year leagues. I went after him hard because I felt that he would be the next Roberto Luongo-type of star. If you want a 70-game, 40-win goalie it’s far cheaper to draft him or acquire him early than it is to get him when he is 27 and has four 40-win seasons under his belt. He started off incredible – following up a Gold Medal win at the WJC by stepping into the AHL playoffs as a teenager and winning the championship. Then he forced his way onto the Montreal roster and posted monster numbers. The following year, last season, he continued to dominate – on December 30, Carey Price was 16-4-5 and held opponents to two goals or fewer 18 times. This is LAST YEAR – just TEN full months ago. Since then he is 9-18-6. Give up on him? Hell no. But this season looks like trouble. Here are the facts: Price is Montreal’s golden boy, beloved by both Gainey and Martin. Here are my thoughts: A trade will do him a world of good, but it will never happen. The love affair is too strong. I can see Halak starting four of every five games going forward until he gets hurt. If the Habs ever play hot behind him and he gets hurt for a couple of weeks, then Price can step in and ride that. If not, he’ll be riding the pine and looking at 30 games tops – and dismal numbers. He’ll get another shot at the No.1 job next year, and the year after, and the year after until he gets it right. But he’ll always get chances because he is the golden boy.

 

Now the Varlamov vs. Theodore thing. I’m still sticking to what I’ve been saying since January – this team is Varlamov’s and we’ll see that on a full-time basis down the stretch. In the meantime, when the pressure is off (i.e. NOT down the stretch), they will keep putting Theodore out there because they are paying him a crapload of money to be their No.1 guy. In the next 40 games, look for Theo to get 30 starts. In the final 25 games, look for Theo to get five starts and Varly the other 20. That’s my thought on the matter and, as I said, it hasn’t changed in nine months. Angus will tell you the opposite when he does the ramblings – and that’s what makes our arrangement so great. Differing opinions. My point against Angus is when he cites Theodore’s contract year. Yes the numbers are better, but only marginally – and in Colorado he was able to get those better numbers because the alternative was to play Budaj whenever Theo sucked. So they had let Theo play through it. In Washington, they don’t have to settle for a Budaj. They can turn to Varlamov, who has the talent to never give the job back once he has it.

 

Thanks to barneyg in the comments below for pointing this out – because Price signed a contract at age 20, he must clear waivers before being sent down if he 1. is 24 years of age OR 2. has played 80 NHL games. He has played 102 NHL games so he would have to clear waivers. So that pretty much leaves a trade, if Price needs some sort of shake-up.

 

Carey Price didn’t have to face Ilya Kovalchuk, yet still allowed five goals on 30 shots. The best thing for him now is to play out the season in Hamilton. He’s a monster goaltender who desperately needs his confidence back. He hasn’t had it since his ankle injury about a year ago. He’s still only 22. Just remember that the likes of Miller, Thomas, Nabokov, Kipper, Anderson, Backstrom, etc were flipping burgers at that age (or still living with mommy) just to make ends meet.

 

Chris Higgins scores! Well there you go. Now maybe his line (with Drury and Dubie – or the CBC line?) will start rolling. Give it another game and see. Higgins still looks like a 50-point player to me.

Phil Kessel played 23:50 in his season debut and fired 10 shots on goal. Until he proves to be otherwise, the Leafs will be treating him like a superstar with the prime ice time and power-play time.

 

Bobby Ryan has six points in his last four contests and has been back on the big line with Getzlaf and Perry for a few games now. He’ll be hot and cold all season and in the end should hover around 60 points.

 

So Nashville struggles to score, and Rich Peverley has 16 points in 11 games. He was WAIVED. This furthers my theory that many star AHLers could be stars in the NHL if all the pieces slide into place at all the right times – from the coach waking up in a good mood one key morning, to a puck going off the post and bouncing left instead of right in that first or second game. The momentum builds and before you know it, you have a star on your hands. Ottawa is the ONLY team this season to stop Peverley from putting points on the board. He won’t get the 119 points he is on pace for, but I think he can get 85. Notice I keep raising that?

 

Actually, JP Dumont is scoring for Nashville. Not at a Peverlian pace, but nine points in five games is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Marleau has 14 points in his last seven games.

 

I won the bidding for Fleischmann in the DobberHockey Experts tier yesterday. I overpaid a little because he’s eligible on both wings and is extremely hot/cold – which is excellent in roto leagues if you can play the active/bench thing properly.

 

Stamkos has 11 goals in 13 games and Lecavalier only has two, and Stammer is a plus-5 vs. Vinny’s minus-7. Will this continue? Vote in the poll.

 

Jarret Stoll has 12 points in 15 games and six in his last five. He’s a streaky player as well.

 

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Maxim Afinogenov has seven points in his last eight games. Now that Kovalchuk is out, he is playing with Antropov and Peverley and the line is really working (is that thanks to Peverley? I think so).

 

Radim Vrbata has just three points in 12 games. He is extremely streaky so if he starts rolling again soon get on board early.

 

Matt Duchene has just one point in his last five. The Avs have scored just one goal in their last two, and have not scored four in one game in their last five. Prior to that, they scored four or more goals four times in 10 games. The bubble may have burst.

 

The following big slumpers I think will shake it within the next two-three weeks: Michael Ryder (pointless in six), David Backes (ditto), Matt Stajan (pointless in four), Michael Frolik (pointless in five), David Krejci (pointless in four).

 

These guys will not, or they’ll be a little longer: Marek Svatos (pointless in nine), Rolston (seven), Cheechoo (seven), Callahan (seven), Kostitsyn (six), Nilsson (six), Recchi (four), Brind’Amour (four).

 

These guys I am on the fence about – I have no hunch as to when or if they’ll break their slump: Gagner (pointless in five), Cleary (four), Kariya (four), Kotalik (four), Boyes (four).

 

Some notes from the Dispatch: Huselius practiced on the third line and Hitchcock has talked to him several times about stepping up his play. Also Filatov is fine now, but will still be in the press box.

 

The Caps lines, sans Ovechkin, thanks to Tarik El-Bashir:

Fleischmann-Backstrom-Knuble
Laich-Morrison-Semin
Fehr-Perreault-Clark
Laing-Steckel-Bradley

 

Mike Russo gives an update on PM Bouchard – you’re looking at months for this guy, in my opinion. Expect nothing before Christmas.

 

TJ Oshie (appendix) is expected to play tomorrow. McDonald is questionable and so is Colaiacovo.

 

Phil Kessel – welcome back…(he was okay)

 

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