October 19 2015

Dobber

2015-10-19

Rambling about the stickability of some of the current top scorers, as well as some goalies and a secret PIM sleeper…

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There is a list of players who are making fantasy owners very worried. As of early Saturday, that list included Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf, Connor McDavid, Patrick Sharp, Sergei Bobrovsky and Tuukka Rask. Of course, Crosby and Getzlaf are of particular concern because the domino effect is hitting four or five other players on each team (Penguins and Ducks). Just 48 hours later and you can cross McDavid’s name off this list. He broke through on Saturday with a three-point game and often it’s that first big game that opens the door and shoves the doorstop underneath.

After the three-point game Saturday, look what McDavid did Sunday:

 

 

So McDavid is heating up now, so time to take a look at his linemates:

 

22.37%

EV

28 KORPIKOSKI,LAURI – 51 LANDER,ANTON – 16 PURCELL,EDWARD

22.37%

EV

20 GAZDIC,LUKE – 12 KLINKHAMMER,ROBERT – 55 LETESTU,MARK

15.79%

EV

4 HALL,TAYLOR – 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN – 42 SLEPYSHEV,ANTON

14.47%

EV

97 MCDAVID,CONNOR – 67 POULIOT,BENOIT – 10 YAKUPOV,NAIL

 

I think the Oilers stick with this “second” line and keep Hall and RNH together on the first line. Anton Slepyshev being a part of that line has my attention, but the likely result is that he’s not ready and will be replaced within a couple of games. I like Yakupov, but especially over the next little while.

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And just like McDavid, Crosby will have his coming out party. So if you can’t acquire Crosby for a reasonable price today, perhaps set your sights on Chris Kunitz or David Perron. One of these two will start rolling along with Crosby, my hunch is Kunitz but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. And I’m assuming, of course, that Phil Kessel’s price is just as out of reach as Crosby’s.

Getzlaf broke the goose egg Sunday with an assist.

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The only player on that above “worry” list that I don’t like in terms of season outlook is Rask. While I think Bobrovsky will turn things around, perhaps after a coaching change, I don’t feel as confident with Rask. The Bruins are retooling a little, whereas the Blue Jackets are going for it here and now.

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Vladimir Tarasenko – nine points in six games, tied for the NHL scoring lead. I’m buying it. He’ll finish in the Top 10 this year if he misses five games and he’ll finish in the Top 5 this year if he plays the full year.

David Krejci – nine points in five games. Not buying it. First of all, he’s not going to play many more than 70 games. But besides that, he’s not a point-per-game player anymore. I have him for 52 in 71 in the Guide. I’m going to stick to the 71-game projection, but I’ll up the production to 57. So 57 points and on pace for 148. So yeah, a “sell high”. And Krejci’s player profile indicates you should sell. Did you see these yet? Here:

 

 

 

You know I’ve been hyping these profiles for a few months now. And you’ve chosen to ignore it. So there is a picture of the top part of that page. The PDO and 5on5 SH% are color coded to tell you if it’s too high or too low. Scrolling down the player profile pages will show plenty more awesomeness (line combos, depth charts, links to which Ramblings and articles they are mentioned in here, etc.). This stuff is gold and my go-to research for players. Click any player name in any article on this site. Choose to ignore it again, and I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink, right?

We also made a change that helps these pages load quicker. FYI

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Henrik Zetterberg – nine points in five games. Buying it. Not buying the incredible pace, obviously, but buying the fact that he can be a Top 10 scorer in the NHL this season…were it not for the injuries. But he’s got renewed energy thanks to the kids and the coaching change and I think he’s good to get back over the 70-point mark for the first time since 2011.

Mark Stone – eight points in six games. Buying it. I said all summer he’ll be underrated and that he should be treated as though he was a star.

Kyle Turris – eight points in six games. Buying it, but with an asterisk. Though he’ll set career highs this year (64 is his high), and playing with Stone could see him flirt with 70. Won’t finish in the Top 10.

Tyler Seguin and John Tavares – eight points in five games. Well duh.

Blake Wheeler – eight points in six games. Again, this is an example of a good player who could very well set career highs. But he’s not going to finish in the Top 10 like this. Wheeler is a notorious slow starter and hot finisher, so this great start to the season is a breath of fresh air for his owners.

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Other notables in the Top 20:

Artemi Panarin – seven points in six games. I’ve seen hot starts like this before and they cool off pretty quick. How excited were we when Fabian Brunnstrom had a hat trick in his first NHL game? But I’ll still pencil Panarin in for 55+ points and try to contain my excitement that he can do so much more. Right now, if you can trade him for a Ryan Getzlaf or a Sidney Crosby – take advantage of the hype. Play the odds here, players don’t come as undrafted late-bloomers from Europe and immediately become a Top 20 player.

Mike Hoffman – Every once in a while I underestimate players, but I do so thanks to scouting reports and GM comments. Patrick Sharp is one example. He was supposed to be a depth player and potential third liner and was treated as such. But he was scoring so frequently despite the ice time and lack of linemates that he forced his way onto a scoring line and kept rolling from there. Hoffman is looking like another example of this. I’m still not buying that he can ever be a 60-point player, but playing with Stone and making himself the only winger who can really click with Stone sure helps his odds.

Martin Hanzal – seven points in five games. Not buying it. But this is because Arizona is scoring too much right now and that will stop. His 5on5 SH% is 21.88% which is more than twice what it should be (indicating his point total would normal sit at around three or four points). Sell high for sure.

Jaromir Jagr – seven points in five games. Not buying this. I think Jagr is good for 45 points, 50 tops. Won’t budge from that no matter how hot he starts.

Anthony Duclair – six points in five games. No, come on. He got three of those points in one game. His 5-on-5 SH% is 25%, which is insane. There isn’t a color red enough to show in his player profile sell recommendation.

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A very interesting story about the All-Sports Media app that you’ve heard of thanks to the fact that they’ve offered up a signed (by Bernie Nicholls) hockey stick as a prize in the DobberHockey pool. I sat down with Jason Henry, one of the key people in charge of this initiative and I learned a lot. In a nutshell, this was an active game in the 90s and he made himself quite a bit of money from it, buying and selling pro sports teams like stocks – including shortselling. I won’t get into too much detail, other than a couple of interesting tidbits. He shorted stocks on Irish soccer teams and Turkish soccer teams, but bought stocks in the Yankees and Tiger Woods (for example). Made well into the thousands. Eventually, the company just gave him a job. And then they got into a bit of trouble, as they had some aspects of the business that didn’t fit the criteria of the stock market and were forced to shut down.

For 10 years, Jason and seven other guys focused on dotting the “I’s” and crossing the “T’s”. I mean the legwork they did with this thing – patents in 148 countries, meetings with each of the major North American sports leagues and getting their blessing, meeting with the SEC and making sure that every criteria is covered. And now they’ve launched the free version. You get $2500 in play money and you buy and sell stocks on sports teams and the value goes up or down based on win-loss performance. When the second market – for real money – opens, they limit users to $2500 (so nobody will lose the farm over it). But just looking at the tools and charts and graphs available with their app, it was incredible. The experience is quite real. I’m considering putting a widget on DobberHockey showing one of their graphs, just to give you an idea of what the “market” thinks of NHL teams and where they are going over the course of a couple of seasons. Call it “hockey fan confidence”. I think it would be a valuable tool. But if you are into the stock market at all, player around with their free app. Only available on iPhone and web based.

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Henrik Lundqvist is winless in his last three games, but his SV% (0.931) is actually higher than it’s been his entire career. They’re losing because they’re not scoring.

So far the key acquisitions the Devils pursued, Jiri Tlusty and Kyle Palmieri, have fewer points than the free agent the Devils settled for after a tryout (Lee Stempniak).

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The last time Brian Elliott started the season 4-0-0 was in 2011-12, which was easily the best season of his career. Injuries will foil him, as they always do, but for those games that he does play this is very promising. If you’re a Jake Allen owner, you have to be a little worried. Both goalies are signed through this season and next.

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Nik Ehlers has points in four of his last five games.

Tyler Myers has taken over the PP time from Toby Enstrom, which is expected. And fine. Enstrom has lost his puck-moving game a little due to all the injuries adding up. But what’s not fine is that Myers is getting PP time at the expense of Jacob Trouba, a superior defenseman offensively. I don’t own either defenseman in any of my leagues, I just think Trouba has the talent and would love to see him get a look. Just two shifts on the power play all season for Trouba. This slow learning curve is akin to John Carlson’s – if you remember, it took Carlson five years to get the right ice time.

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As a Cam Talbot owner, I’m quite worried about how well Anders Nilsson has been playing. Talbot can ride the Golden Boy status for a couple more weeks, but if things are status quo at that point, you’ll see Nilsson begin cannibalizing starts. Nilsson is definitely worth picking up in roto leagues and stashing on the bench – you won’t have to wait long, methinks.

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More goalie musings – Jonathan Quick has gone three consecutive games of allowing two goals or less, leading to two wins. The Kings have clamped down and Quick’s numbers are moving towards where they should be.

Reto Berra was impressive in Friday’s win for the Avs so he got the start Saturday. Once again, the team let him down by giving up a ton of shots. But once again he was up to the task, nearly stealing the win. In those two starts he faced 75 shots and stopped 73 of them. And he came on in relief of Varlamov back on Wednesday and stopped all five shots he faced then too. His SV% sits at 0.975.

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Last year I pumped up Andy Andreoff as a possible PIM stud because he racked them up in lower levels, was a decent prospect, and had to clear waivers to be sent down. Well, instead the Kings scratched him a hell of a lot. He only got into 18 games. So this year I figured it would improve a little but not too much. However, he’s played four games already and has 27 PIM including 15 on Sunday. I think he’s a worthwhile add for you and I’m almost certain he’ll be available – he’ll shore up that PIM category for you and give you a bit of breathing room. The team is winning with him in the lineup right now, so I’d expect that to stay constant for a while.

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ICYMI over at Sportsnet, here is my mailbag from Friday. And of course the second edition of 20 Fantasy Thoughts (via Steve Laidlaw and myself, and did Ian Gooding have a tidbit or two in there?). A must read, even if you read the Ramblings every day, this bang-bang format of the best of the best is entertaining.

 

8 Comments

  1. Jeffrey Yopyk 2015-10-19 at 06:34

    There is an error in your Oiler line combination information. Slepyshev did not have a single shift with Hall and RNH after the 18 minute mark of the first period.

    • Dobber Sports 2015-10-19 at 11:32

      The line combos were taken in the second period. I was watching the game while I was writing, didn't bother to update the line combos when I finished the Ramblings at 1:30

  2. SM 2015-10-19 at 07:10

    I'm getting an error message with a lot of players on Frozen Pool:

    Content Encoding Error

    The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because it uses an invalid or unsupported form of compression. Please contact the website owners to inform them of this problem

     

    • Dobber Sports 2015-10-19 at 11:35

      Hi SM, which player are you clicking? I just click 10 players in the Ramblings, to try to recreate your issue, and I can't. Loads fine. What is your browser? I'm using Chrome. I even opened them fine on my phone

  3. Sergey 2015-10-19 at 07:14

    Yeah, I also see only this info (for any player)

    MARK SCHEIFELE (C) – WPG date of birth:1993-03-15 (age 22)

    and the list of players on Players Profile page.

    • Dobber Sports 2015-10-19 at 11:36

      Thanks for the feedback, but I can't recreate this error. Does your url at the top start with dobberhockey.com/frozenpool? Or does it start with hockey.dobbersports?

       

      These player profiles are loading great for me on two browsers/platforms

  4. frozenpools 2015-10-19 at 14:21

    Fwiw both Shleppy and Klinkhammer weren't very good with Hall and Nuge who were great last night. I'd bet Hendricks is back soon or maybe Drai is called up. Eberle has 2-3 more weeks till he is back

  5. mick 2015-10-19 at 18:33

    Curious if you watched the Boston/Yotes game – Kreji was playing the point on the PP.  Looked good. Health could be an issue.

    Wondering if you updated your guide to include Erhoff on the PP?

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