Rambling about Jake Allen, Ilya Kovalchuk, Brad Marchand, Bobby Ryan and the Second Round is now set (Apr. 24)

Dobber

2017-04-23

Rambling about Jake Allen, Ilya Kovalchuk, Brad Marchand, Bobby Ryan and the Second Round is now set (Apr. 24)

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Jake Allen is a talented goalie. The talent and upside were always there, but the consistency wasn’t. And I blame the timely (or untimely, rather) injuries. He would steal the top job from Brian Elliott, go on a roll, and then lose the job because he twisted a knee or sprained an ankle. Then Elliott would go on a roll. Remember that? Happened about five or six times. So I haven't trusted him. This is further to my Ramble last week.

Anyway, he was hot to start the series. When a talented goalie gets hot, you can outshoot that team 50-25 and still lose the game. As the Wild pretty much did. However, I think Allen came back to earth in the final game and a half or so of action. But it was too late for the Wild. They needed him playing like “normal” for the entire series if they had a chance. So will the “normal” Allen start the next series or the “red hot” Allen?

One thing I won’t stand for – it drives me nuts – is the credit being given to Martin Brodeur. Come on. If Wayne Gretzky trained with Connor McDavid for a couple of weeks in November, would we credit McDavid’s Art Ross Trophy to Gretzky’s teachings? Are we saying that if Brodeur gave Reto Berra those tips then Berra would be a superstar? Not buying that a goalie coach can add much more than any other goalie coach in the span of just a couple of months. A full year, maybe. Brodeur doesn’t have a magic wand. Allen is better because the team in front of him is better under a fresh coaching style. And Allen is hot right now because all goalies get hot from time to time – and it that “hot” streak hits in April, well that’s just great timing. Pekka Rinne and Henrik Lundqvist are also hot right now, after pretty weak seasons (at least the first half) – what’s there excuse? Goalie coach? Come on!

Still, Allen’s strong play over the past month (strong is a term that doesn’t do him justice) has me firmly on board in fantasy leagues now. I wasn’t this past year – and that turned out to be pretty smart because 33 wins in 61 games and a .915 SV% are numbers that would make his preseason hype very much overrated. Glad I wasn’t a part of that. But in the coming season Allen has his act together and works well under this coaching style. I can see a 40-win season and a .920 SV%, Top 5-7 status. This, I now trust – because even if he gets injured, he'll return and have his job back.

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This was touched upon yesterday by Ian, but I’ll weigh in on expectations. Ilya Kovalchuk. He wants back into the NHL. Now, he’s wanted this for two years now and he’s still a full year away from being allowed to return without restriction. But this time it seems more realistic. Elliotte Friedman is floating the idea that the Devils could trade his rights to the team he wants to sign with, and then that team could bring him back. Things are also different this year because Kovalchuk is actually playing like a superstar in the KHL. After three seasons of barely hovering around the point-per-game mark, this past season (his fourth) has seen his numbers surge to 78 points in 60 games. Perhaps the arrival of teammate Pavel Datsyuk has inspired him in some way, but Kovalchuk has found his mojo again. He just turned 34 years old last week so I would hold my expectations to something similar to what we just saw from Alexander Radulov in his first full season back in the NHL.

I won’t mention here that Kovalchuk’s KHL playoff numbers this spring dipped dramatically (nine points in 18 games). Oops, already did.

Update: Bob McKenzie says that Kovalchuk's rights can't be traded. He needs to be signed first. So a 'sign and trade' is what is needed to make this happen. Semantics, really. If he wants to play in the NHL and the Devils want some free assets (yes and yes) then how they get from A to B is irrelevant. Any extra hoops to jump through will not stop them.

Update II: Kovalchuk played through an injury in the playoffs and will likely need surgery. That explains the lower production, and there is no info available as to what the injury is.

*

The Stanley Cup Final is happening early this year. The winner of the Washington – Pittsburgh series will win the Cup. Saying that here and now.

FWIW I say Capitals in seven and while part of me wants Ovechkin to win a Cup, I have too many hockey pools riding on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh is one of my three favorite teams (Edmonton, Toronto) so I’ll be rooting Pittsburgh.

*

So the Leafs took the Caps to overtime five times out of six and could have toppled the mighty Caps if the puck bounced differently a time or two. That would have been something. But I love this team’s future, even though I do stand by what I said about them regressing by two or three points next year and just barely missing the playoffs. I think they’ll be a powerhouse team after that for several years – that’s the cycle of sports. And Toronto’s low part of the cycle is clearly over.

I thought the Johansson – Kuznetsov – Williams line was awesome in Games 1, 2, 5 and 6. This wasn’t reflected in Johansson’s or Kuznetsov’s point totals (though Johansson scored twice last night), but they could have easily had seven or eight. Maybe if Kuznetsov stopped flapping his arms like a bird for a few minutes he could score some more.

Kevin Shattenkirk was held to just three assists in the series and this is because Mike Babcock had Matt Martin pounding Shatty into the boards every chance he got. The plan worked. Shattenkirk was rattled right from Game 1 and missed the net with his shots five times for every shot that was on target. Mike Sullivan should take note.

Alex Ovechkin led the Caps in shots on goal with 28 and only scored three times. How often do you think that will happen? His 28 shots were tied for first with Brent Burns and…Max Pacioretty. Both of whom were held without a goal (and subsequently eliminated).

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It was a team effort for Toronto. Frederik Andersen was awesome and got better every game. But eight players on the Leafs had three points or more in the six games, six players had four points or more.

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Nikita Soshnikov, if he’s healthy, and Kasperi Kapanen will likely go down to join the Marlies in their playoff run.

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Speaking of – would Cleveland have made the Calder Cup playoffs if the Blue Jackets didn’t call up Oliver Bjorkstrand down the stretch? They literally tied for the final playoff spot with Charlotte and had the exact same record – and actually lost more in the shootout while Charlotte lost more in overtime, so it could be argued that Cleveland had a better record. But missed via the tiebreak. Just food for thought on how NHL player moves impact AHL business.

*

Ryan Spooner lost his job the last two games to rookie Sean Kuraly. Kuraly has little upside but not too much. Whereas Spooner has pretty good upside and I think will bounce back next season. Still, it’s troubling to see this.

Brad Marchand tended to be streaky this season, but he put massive points on the board because his slumps didn’t last very long. Unfortunately, he had one to start this series with one point in four games. A short slump, but long enough. He picked up three points in the last two games to help the Bruins win one game and push another to overtime. But they had no margin for error. If he was “on” to begin with, the B’s would be advancing.

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You know who was “on”? Two players who were most definitely not “on” all year long: Derick Brassard and Bobby Ryan. For Brassard it’s not a surprise because he always kicks ass in the playoffs – he’s now up to 53 points in his last 65 playoff games and 29 in his last 30. It’s Ryan who is the surprise. His game had been disappearing but suddenly has seven points in six games.

It’s ironic because the team acquired Brassard so that he could play with Ryan. The two were supposed to flourish. Boy did that ever not happen – they failed miserably, despite extensive time together during the first 20 games or so. Now they’re together again – and it’s working? Does this mean it will work next season? I’m starting to wonder if they’ll make sneaky-good “buy low” acquisitions this summer…

Perhaps all they needed was Clarke MacArthur to compliment them…

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It turns out that Erik Karlsson was playing two hairline fractures in his heel and had been taking cortisone shots for the pain. Apparently, he'll be all healed up (heeled up?) by Thursday.

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A new record for overtimes in one round – 18 of 42 games went to OT breaking the record from 2013 (17). This is fascinating because the first round was over quickly – no series went to a Game 7 and every elimination game on Saturday and Sunday resulted in an elimination. In 2013's first round 47 games were played.

Elias also says that on April 17 all four games went to overtime and that was the first time since 1985 that four games went to overtime and the third time in history.

Only two teenagers in NHL historyhave scored in four consecutive playoff games – Auston Matthews and Wendel Clark (what are the odds of this stat resulting in both players being Leafs?)

 

6 Comments

  1. Striker 2017-04-24 at 08:45

    I was listening to XM91 back in early March & someone was talking about the changes Yeo made that improved StL significantly. All that ailed StL in the 1st 1/2 of the season was goals against primarily. The defensive change made was essentially StL moving from man to man coverage to zone coverage. Since this change StL goals against has improved significantly. Not to mention StL became 1 of the best teams in the league in almost every catagory imaginable.

    The next round of the playoffs should be awesome.

    StL over Nashville in 6.
    Anh over Edm in 6.
    Was over Pit in 7.
    NYR over Ott in 5.

  2. Striker 2017-04-24 at 09:00

    The B’s didn’t advance as they were missing their #2, Krug & 1 of the best PP transitional Dman in the NHL, top 10 soon to be top 5; 2 points out of the top 5 this year & #3 Carlo Dman for the entire series as well as their #4 Dman McQuad going down just under 3 mins into game 2 & their #6 C. Miller for 1/2 the series. I don’t care who you are your not advancing with your D taking those injuries. Insurmountable.

    I have to think if Spooner was fit to play he would have played. I don’t buy the reports he could have played If he could he would have. If Not then please move Cassidy along as well.

  3. Jonathan Dey 2017-04-24 at 13:34

    RE: the Brodeur effect on Jake Allen…
    wasn’t Sean Burke being heralded as the second coming just a couple years ago for re-establishing Mike Smith. Weren’t the Leafs talked about as heavy front runners for his services when they began assembling the front office – before he signed with MTL?

    Francois Allaire was also widely touted if I recall. So Brodeur having a direct impact on a young player, whom would aspire to live up to his living legend goalie coach’s status is a stretch? I think we have to analyze the qualitative in the short-term, and review the quantitative in a year or two.

    • Dobber 2017-04-24 at 22:19

      Not sold on Burke or Allaire either – Allaire was this wizard, then went to Toronto and suddenly…was bad? Nah, it’s the Head Coach’s style. A goalie coach can help a little over the course of a year, but there is no magic wand that turns a C goalie to an A goalie in two months. I agree you need a goalie coach and they help, and you need every edge you can get, but Allen finding his mojo has little to do with Brodeur IMO

  4. Jonathan Dey 2017-04-24 at 13:36

    PS…still love the site, and still read it while I took a two year hiatus from fantasy hockey. As this site has not gone clickbait – at least in comparison to TSN and other major news outlets.

    • Dobber 2017-04-24 at 22:20

      Haha thanks! I try to make the headlines clickbaity…but I’m not very good at it!

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