Ramblings: Blues/Sharks, Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist (May 20)

Michael Clifford

2016-05-19

Blues/Sharks, Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist, Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss

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The shot totals might have been somewhat close, and the game wasn't a huge blowout, but this contest never really seemed in doubt. San Jose took Game 3 by a 3-0 score to take the series lead 2-1, dominating for about 80-percent of the game. 

A fast-paced first period was capped by Tomas Hertl giving the Sharks a 1-0 lead on a beautiful top corner slap shot as he was streaking down the left wing. Both teams had their chances, but Hertl was the one that cashed. And it was a beauty:

The Sharks really took over in the second period. St. Louis just couldn’t create anything offensively, San Jose was pressuring everywhere, and it culminated in a Joonas Donskoi goal to give the Sharks a 2-0 lead. This game was by no means out of reach at this point, but by the way the teams were playing, it sure felt like it.

For good measure, Hertl scored again after a Blues push to start the third period, and Elliott was pulled. Though the Sharks didn’t rack up the shot totals, they pretty much controlled this game from the middle of the first period on.

It’s worth noting that with an assist on Donskoi’s second period goal, Couture has 46 points in his last 49 games going back to January 1st. I wonder what to do with him in fantasy, though. Without playing on the top line, I think his upside is capped. There is no doubt that he has 70-plus point potential, but unless he plays 19 minutes a game, I’m not sure he gets there. With the injuries this year, I’m interested to see what his ADP is next year. Does he get out of the third round in a 12-team league?

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Having 19 goals, 120 penalty minutes, and cracking double-digit power play points is a good season. Also, Justin Abdelkader clearly has the trust of coach Jeff Blashill, as he played nearly 18:30 per game last year, which was third among Red Wings forwards behind Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk.

Any player that plays that much, including the second-most power play time on the team, deserves fantasy consideration. The thing is, he’s probably best suited to be a third liner:

                  

What that chart says is that he doesn’t drive the play, and passengers are worrisome in fantasy. He is also a product of ice time, not production, which is another worry. If he’s given a lesser role, he won’t produce. If he were to play 15 minutes a game rather than 18:30, he’s Patrick Maroon instead of David Backes Jr. Some players can take a drop in the lineup and still produce something; Nyquist (keep reading) did that last year. Abdelkader cannot.

Like I mentioned, though, he seems to have the trust of Blashill. Also, if something should happen where he does lose 2-3 minutes a game in ice time, he can still be useful because of his penalty minutes. Abdelkader, though, is the type of guy I avoid for fantasy. He doesn’t drive the play, he can’t create offence, and needs a plethora of ice time just to approach a half point per game. Those are the guys I’ll pass. 

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It is being reported that Jaroslav Halak will be undergoing sports hernia surgery, with an expected recovery time of six to eight weeks. He had been hurt pretty much from March onward, ceding the net to Thomas Greiss in the meantime.

Halak has two more years left on his deal, while Greiss has one. Now, the sample isn’t very big for Greiss, but since he became a regular backup in 2009, he’s third among goalies with at least 4500 minutes played in adjusted five-on-five save percentage. This, from War On Ice, is… well it’s something:

        

I would caution against using data that goes back eight years. This instance necessitated it just to get the largest sample possible, not skew the data, because Greiss started more than 20 games for the first time in his career this past season. He will be 31 years old this winter.

The Halak surgery does make me wonder about this goaltending situation next year. It would seem that Halak should be fine to start the season, but Greiss was very good both in the regular season and the playoffs. Both are under contract for next year, and Halak is earning three times more than Greiss. That, on top of Halak being about average over the last two years (which is fine), would seem to give him the inside track to the opening day job.

Greiss is a goalie I will be targeting for next season, though. That is all dependent one where is ADP is, but as a third goalie, that’s a solid value. I have liked his game since his days in San Jose, and this year he proved he can handle a larger workload. Sure, Halak probably gets the nod out of the gate, but his leash will probably be a lot shorter than it was in 2015-2016.

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I would never, ever, base my opinion of a player on the play of one game. Or three games. Or 10 games. It’s just plain wrong.

What I will say is that I was incredibly impressed with the performance of Auston Matthews yesterday against the Czech Republic at the World Championships. He had a nice goal in the game, sliding a backhand five-hole, and a more impressive shootout goal, feigning the backhand, and snapping it five-hole coming down the left side.

This was the shootout goal, which I had to rewind a few times to really appreciate:

The impressive part of all this is that there are essentially three components required for any athlete to become dominant in a team sport:

  1. Quick decision-making
  2. Quality decision-making
  3. Skills to turn decisions into positive results

Athletes – specifically in team sports – need to make the correct split-second decision, and have the abilities to produce a positive result with that decision. That’s what I saw with Matthews on his two goals. Setting aside is overall very solid play all tournament, those two tallies are inspiring. While he had a bit more time to think about his shootout move, both goals looked absolutely effortless, and it just kind of stuck in my head.

Matthews is obviously a highly-skilled player with incredible upside. What those two goals showed was high-level thinking with high-level skill. It’s stating the obvious, but he is just fun to watch.

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The reclamation project – it seems like the third time this has happened – of Zack Kassian continues. After finding some success with the Oilers after having been traded by Montreal following an off-ice incident, Kassian was re-signed yesterday to a one-year, $1.5-million contract. A minimal investment for the team, and next year is probably Kassian’s last chance (again).

I will say, unequivocally, that I have always been a supporter of Kassian in fantasy. He seems to be one of those players, where if he ever approached his potential, could be a solid across-the-board performer in roto leagues. Obviously, he has never really reached his potential, with only one year giving some fantasy value thanks to his 124 penalty minute season in 2013-2014.

There is only consideration for drafts next year in very deep leagues. It is worth noting, though, that since the start of the lockout-shortened season, Kassian has produced 1.57 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That puts him in third liner production territory, and that rate is slightly higher than names like Brock Nelson (1.56), Henrik Zetterberg (1.55), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.54), and Patrick Marleau (1.52). At play here is the fact that Kassian has largely played third and fourth line minutes, so he’s not playing the top competition that Zetterberg or RNH would, but by the same token, isn’t getting top-end line mates, either. People might look at the fact that he’s never cracked 30 points and assume he hasn’t been productive in the time he has been given. That is false.

Almost assuredly, Kassian will start the year next year in the bottom-six, and he will have to earn more ice time. But were he to play a full year, something like 15 goals, 30 points, and 120 penalty minutes will certainly play in roto leagues. He has to prove himself in October/November, but in 16-team leagues, he’s worth the gamble.  

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To cover another Red Wings player, Gustav Nyquist was a disappointment this past season for fantasy owners everywhere. There were a few issues at play here, so let’s go through them.

Shots, everybody

At 1.96 shots per game, Nyquist was a fair amount lower in this regard compared to the previous two years at 2.38, and 2.68. It wasn’t purely a drop in ice time, either – he played about a minute and a half less per game than he did over the previous two seasons on aggregate – it was a rate drop as well, as he managed about one shot fewer per 60 minutes at five-on-five than in 2014-2015, and about 2.3 fewer shots per 60 minutes from 2013-2014.

That is a problem because Nyquist’s shot percentage didn’t really tank (it was above 10-percent overall). Even an uptick in shots next year doesn’t guarantee a jump in goals. Should he find some bad fortune and have a 7- or 8-percent shooting season, it would mitigate most jump in shots. 

One problem is that he played more with Riley Sheahan than any other Detroit centre, and while Sheahan is a solid depth piece, he plays low-event hockey, and low-event hockey is bad for fantasy. Combined shot attempts both for and against per 60 minutes with Sheahan/Nyquist on the ice was over 92, but when Nyquist played with anyone else, on aggregate, it was over 105. That is what someone should expect from a defensive-minded line, a role Nyquist should not be in.

Scoring Chances

Nyquist’s high-danger chances were about the same this past year as the year before, with 48 in 82 games in 2015-2016 and 47 in 82 games the year before. That helped stabilize his shooting percentage at five-on-five.

Power Play

The big problem for Nyquist was that he had his power play goal total cut in half. Two years ago, he scored 14 with the man advantage, while he potted just seven last year.

Roots of this problem stems from taking about 3.5 fewer shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage, having a shooting percentage dropped by about six percent, and playing nearly 30 fewer minutes on the PP as well. When everything takes a downturn like that, the season Nyquist just had is the result.

Next Year

Looking to next year, what’s the hope here? Zetterberg and Datsyuk are not the Zetterberg and Datsyuk of even two years ago. Nyquist is probably best suited to play with Dylan Larkin, but that feels like a dream rather than a reality.

I am an ardent supporter of Nyquist. Of all Detroit players over the last few years, he is a guy I watch the closest. He has the hands and the vision to be a 60-point player, but it’s not certain he gets there. He played just over 15 minutes a game last year, and if Jeff Blashill treats him like a third liner that sometimes gets top-six minutes, he doesn’t realistically have 60-point potential. Instead, it’s another season like last year. If he can get nearly 17 minutes a game, and the power play minutes are fairly spread out, I wouldn’t expect more than 20 goals and 50 points. And that’s a shame.

*Some stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Cap information from Cap Friendly

7 Comments

  1. finminer 2016-05-20 at 07:21

    Totally agree on Nyqvist. Look at his history (including his years at Grand Rapids with Blashill as coach!), he was a point per game player, used correctly. He’s clearly a solid goal scorer, one of their best, and a pp threat, but he’s not used in a way that maximizes his performance. I believe the same thing is true of Tatar, resulting in a down year for two of Detroit’s best young scoring threats. I have to wonder if that wasn’t an issue with Zetterberg as well, as opposed to the “inevitable decline.” So far, I’m not a fan of Blashill – in terms of not getting the best from your players, he seems to be Ken Hitchcock v2.0.

  2. NHLGodfather 2016-05-20 at 08:34

    Good article Mike. As a long time Red Wing fan, I can say that I’m truly concerned about the Wings going forward. As you pointed out, Zetterberg is winding down, Datsyuk is gone and Kronwall is no longer the impact Dman he once was. I give a pass to Blashill for his rookie season, but the young core of the Wings are his boys from Grand Rapids. Blashill had good success in the AHL with these boys and earned the NHL coaching job. Here’s my concern, Nyquist, Sheahan, Tatar, Jurco, and J.Anderson all under-performed collectively under their coach. Pulkkinen, who was the AHL scoring leader and called by some as the next Brett Hull, played his way to the press box. Of those mentioned, none can carry the puck into the zone like Datsyuk did. These are dump and chase players. Maybe that’s Blashill’s style? Larkin was the big surprise. I’m hoping Mantha and Athanasiou follow suit. Then there is the defense…don’t get me started.

    • finminer 2016-05-20 at 19:29

      Yes, they will live and die by the D-men next year. Hopefully they can get some solid D on the market or by trading Howard. I’m a big fan of Mrazek, I saw him a lot in the AHL, grabbed him as a prospect in my leagues. But no matter who’s in goal, they can’t hang him out to dry like they did the last month of the season.

      • NHLGodfather 2016-05-21 at 09:06

        Spot on Finminer. Mrazek is their undisputed #1 G. But as long as Ericsson and Smith keep giving the puck away, Mrazek is going to get shelled. Hopefully they don’t bring Quincey back and Marchenko is a 3rd pairing Dman at best. Take a look at the Wings hits/blocks stats. They are horribly anemic. I doubt shopping Howard will yield much in return. They need to pursue FA’s. That said, high sought after FA’s (in the past) have rejected signing with the Wings in favor of a better chance at a Cup. Also, Ken Holland will not overpay for a FA. The Wings notoriously avoid bidding wars for FA’s.

  3. isle b. 2016-05-20 at 12:39

    If Halak is healthy, I would think the Isles will trade him before the season starts. He clearly rankled the powers that be when he publicly criticized the team for carrying 3 goalies all season. Snow also stated that Greiss has proven himself as a #1 goalie. They also seem to really like Berube and have some blue chip prospects at the position in the long term.

  4. Cal Growette 2016-05-20 at 22:47

    If Datsyuk bolts, does Nyquist get a bump? One would think…

    • NHLGodfather 2016-05-21 at 08:47

      Datsyuk is done. He’s back in Russia to be with his family and may play with a KHL team next season. However, the Wings are still on the hook for his $7.1M cap hit because of the NHL contract age terms. That will hurt them in their quest for a legitimate NHL defenseman like Yandle. Nyquist may get a bump up depending how Blashill plans his lines. With the gaping holes in defense and the failure of Jurco and Pulkkinen to make the NHL transition, I suspect Nyquist and Tatar (and hopefully no sophomore slump) Larkin need to be the new generation Red Wings core players. The likes of Glendenning, Helm, Miller and Abdelkader (and maybe another year of Brad Richards) prove to be excellent support players.

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