Ramblings: Checking in on the Central Division (July 4)

Neil Parker

2017-07-04

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In my next four ramblings, I'm going to run through the divisions for a lay of the land now that most of the pieces are in place. It's an opportunity to look at each team closely and how the depth charts should shake out while considering the potential position battles, in addition to the strengths and weaknesses of each club.

With a lot of analysis and projecting ahead leading into the season, this seems like an apt starting point to begin the process. Additionally, it's an opportunity to hear from you about particular teams and players.

 

Are there obvious oversights?

Is there an emerging prospect I'm forgetting about?

 

While there might be a slight lack of explicit fantasy focus while going through each team, recalibrating the virtual outlook following the offseason changes should reveal plenty of implications for our fake game.

 

Considering all the headlines (and heat) Chicago stirred up, the Blackhawks still have a solid group of forwards, two excellent defensemen and Corey Crawford

The huge question marks on that blue line can't go unnoticed, though.

Michael Rozsival is 38, Connor Murphy is probably nothing more than a serviceable mid-pairing option, and Michal Kempny averaged just 14:58 of ice per game last year. Murphy and Kempny definitely have potential, and Gustav Forsling, Ville Pokka and Jan Rutta could step in and play low-leverage minutes, as well.

Still, counting on a number of inexperienced players to take a sizeable step forward in their development at the same time is probably asking too much. Yet, writing off the Blackhawks has also been a proven fool's errand.

The Central Division might be tougher than ever this season, the Chicago core is another year older, and now the Blackhawks are without Marian Hossa for the first time since the 2008-09 campaign. The unknowns are piling up, and it almost seems inevitable that this is the year that Chicago takes a step back.

Let's not forget that the Blackhawks were the top seed in the Western Conference last season and finished the year with a 20-6-4 stretch dating back to February 1. This team really isn't that team isn't really that different from this club, either, eight?

 

 

Colorado was historically bad last season and doesn't project to be any better anytime soon. There is talent throughout the lineup, and the starting points for a solid team are in place. However, the blue line is Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and a laundry list of unproven defensemen. Perhaps, even more concerning is that Semyon Varlamov has also declined in three consecutive seasons.

Nathan MacKinnon hasn't translated his skill into enough offense yet, whereas Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene appear to have already hit a plateau — at least with Colorado. Most of the teams in the division improved, so it's even more of a discouraging fantasy outlook for the Avalanche.

It's also worrisome that Duchene, Landeskog and Barrie have consistently been the subject of trade rumors. Right now, it's difficult to find positives to cling to in Denver.

 

 

We're going to hear a lot about Dallas, and the Stars roster turnover has been impressive. However, often times there is an adjustment period following massive personnel overhauls, and Big D might be better positioned to win in 2018-19 when a few of the supporting assets — especially on defense — are more established. Also, take a look at the cap space — $11.65 million — that will be opened up with Kari Lehtonen, Dan Hamhuis and Antoine Roussel off the books.

Entering next season (2018-17), Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie, Mattias Janmark, John Klingberg, Esa Lindell, Stephen Johns and Julius Honka will be in the heart of their primes. Dallas is going to have an excellent showing, but the Stars are now positioned exceptionally well for 2018-18.

For our fantasy interests, everything is already pointing straight up.

 

 

Overall, very little has changed for the Wild. They downgraded their team with the salary dump of Jason Pominville and Marco Scandella, and their leadership core — Mikko Koivu, Eric Staal, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter — is all a year older. The next wave of talent is in place, and while there have been plenty of signs of the changing of the guard, it hasn't completely come to fruition yet.

Minnesota had everything go right through the first three quarters of last season, before stumbling down the stretch and bowing out of the playoffs in the first round. It's still a deep roster with a lot of two-way talent, but unless there are reinforcements coming up the ranks from within the organization, it's not as good on paper as the 2016-17 version.

Devan Dubnyk was also unsustainably good for the majority of last year, and with a likely weaker team in front of him, expect him to return to posting solid numbers and not high-end results next season.

Minnesota's second-ranked 101.6 PDO at five-on-five could also be a sign of tougher times ahead, and especially considering the Wild owned a 20th-ranked 49.4 Corsi For percentage. Without the majority of Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin raising their game a level, Minnesota is likely to regress back to being a playoff bubble team.

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There will be high expectations for Nashville this season, and the Predators repositioned themselves to have another strong showing. The loss of James Neal will be mitigated by the addition of Scott Hartnell. There is also a bevy of youngsters pushing for middle-line work. Pontus Aberg and Kevin Fiala aced auditions for the role, and Nashville appears set to roll four solid lines.

Obviously, the defense received oodles of praise last year, and remains in tact. Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros should see closer to a timeshare split in 2017-18, and the duo has the potential to be a sound one-two punch with Saros pushing Rinne. The Predators have everything in place to prove that their run to the Stanley Cup finals was no fluke.

After all, the Filip ForsbergRyan JohansenViktor Arvidsson trio might have more in store offensively.

It won't be a cakewalk to follow up last season's success next fall, though. Nashville is in a tough division, and despite the solid leadership addition of Scott Hartnell, they're going to be pushed for 60 minutes in all 82 games. 82 tape-measuring contests has taken its toll on a number of teams over the years, too.

 

 

St. Louis is going to be really good.

Brayden Schenn was a significant add, and Beau Bennett is a low-risk flier that owns a career 52.7 Corsi For percentage. Defensively, the Blues hardly skipped a beat after Kevin Shattenkirk was traded, and Jordan Schmaltz and Jake Walman are both knocking on the door.

Valdimir Tarasenko is an elite scorer, and there is enough supporting talent to roll out three scoring lines. St. Louis' depth will also enable them to sustain injuries and overcome them easier than last season. There are endless line combinations, but there are also the right pieces to form a shut-down line.

Alexander SteenPatrik BerglundVladimir Sobotka, ayone?

It's also worth noting that the Blues have approximately $8.5 million in cap space still available, which is another significant asset.

 

 

Dmitry Kulikov will be an interesting case study in Winnipeg. His possession numbers have plummeted the past two years, and even if you're not into plus/minus rating, his minus-26 mark last season stands out. It was the worst on the team, and Kulikov only suited up for 47 games.

The term and salary aren't exactly in low-risk territory, either. Kulikov has three years on a ticket just north of $4.3 million. That's top-four money, and he hasn't proven to be a middle-pair option in a number of years. He's also missed plenty of games over the years.

With all that said, Kulikov is an excellent skater, and if he's healthy (a legitimate if), he can slide into this blue-line corps and be a nice fit. Remember, too, the Jets have a bevy of right-handed shots (Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers), so Kulikov will be playing with a solid partner.

It's still way too early to write off his recent struggles, but it's not impossible to envision a path to success, either.

The Steve Mason signing was excellent. Do you trust his .921 save percentage through 166 games over his first three full seasons with the Flyers, or his .908 mark last year?

Trust the former.

Winnipeg has everything in place to return to the playoffs, it'll just be a battle to do so out of the Central Division.

 

***

 

Thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

 

 

5 Comments

  1. NHLGodfather 2017-07-04 at 09:38

    Neil, I agree there is little to like about the Avs. However, I would submit that they do have some emerging scoring punch that you failed to mention. That is in Rantanen, Jost and the surprising Andighetto. Rantanen in particular, had a successful season in spite of that weak roster. My question for you is this: Is the collapse of Avs team the residual effect of Roy or the new policies of Sakic?

    • Neil Parker 2017-07-05 at 12:51

      I’m nervous about Jost jumping so quickly from BCHL to NCAA to NHL. It just seems like a lot of peaks and valleys are ahead for an undersized player that’s climbed up so fast. He’s also never played anything close to an 82-game season.

      The Yakupov signing might be a huge help, though.

      As to your question, I’m really not sure. I think their playoff run in 2013-14 sent expectations out of whack. A slew of poor personnel decisions followed, and the young core hasn’t taken a step forward.

  2. MarkRM16 2017-07-04 at 16:06

    The Hawks should see if Brian Campbell would be willing to re-sign with them on another 1 year, cheap contract to hep mentor their young D and serve on the 2nd PP unit.

    I think you may have been a bit harsh regarding the Wild. They still have an excellent lineup, with a nice balance of productive, experienced forwards and defencemen and a strong group of F&D either in or about to reach their prime. The one glaring hole in their lineup is in goal, where they need a top-notch backup to keep Dubnyk fresh and reduce the odds of him suffering an injury.

    Nashville’s problem is their C. Signing Bonino was a bad move, especially given the term and salary of that awful contract. Bonino is a great 3rd liner with lots of playoff experience, but is a poor 2nd line C that has had just 1 season on a 50 point pace, and is a Band-Aid Boy. They should have gone after someone like Hanzal instead, a better 2-way C than Bonino for a salary and cap hit.marginally higher (but, to be fair, he’s also a BAB). They may need to sacrifice a D like Ellis or Ekholm to upgrade at C given the very poor collection of UFA’s remaining. At this stage, they need Fisher to re-sign for at least 1 more season until a prospect can take the reins.

    Unless they suffer some serious injuries and Laine has a sophomore slump, the Jets look poised to make the playoffs.

    • Neil Parker 2017-07-05 at 12:50

      I was harsh on Minnesota, but they didn’t play well down the stretch and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This is an excellent division, and I don’t think they’re anything more than a middling team in it. They didn’t improve this offseason, either. I outlined the path to having another strong showing, and it’s not impossible. It’s just going to be difficult.

      Don’t disagree about Nashville. Maybe Calle Jarnkrok can be that guy, though.

  3. Dave 2017-07-07 at 08:36

    With all the movement in Chicago, and the constant battle with the cap, would it be fair to say that Debrincat will be given a shot at cracking the line-up this year?

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