Ramblings: Deep playoff drafts call for deep team stacks – Backing the Pens (April 12)

Neil Parker

2016-04-11

Sidney Crosby - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Backing the Penguins and more playoff talk leading into the second season …

 

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I had my annual playoff draft last night. Points only and 24 teams with 10 players apiece.

It is a marathon.

This is the ninth year I've been in the pool, and I won in 2007, 2012 and finished second in 2008 or 2009. I can't remember which Detroit-Pittsburgh final I cashed in. I wouldn't call it is the sharpest draft room, but numerous people will load up over 50 percent of their roster on a single team, as volume has been a proven winning formula over savvy picks across multiple teams.

I drew eighth pick and was eyeballing Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry.

 

Here were the top-10 selections:

 

1. Evgeny Kuznetsov

2. Nicklas Backstrom

3. Alex Ovechkin

4. Patrick Kane

5. Jamie Benn

6. Ryan Getzlaf

7. Corey Perry

8. Sidney Crosby

9. Jeff Carter

10. Tyler Seguin

 

I had no intentions of rolling with Pittsburgh, but their beastly second half that included the most goals per game in the league (3.56) was tough to pass up. In such a cavernous format, you're hitching your wagon to a few ponies, and Crosby is a thoroughbred with pool-winning upside.

The Rangers are scary on so many levels because of their depth, experience, and most importantly, Henrik Lundqvist.

Pittsburgh beat New York three times in March by a combined 12-6 score, though, and there is a strong case to suggest the Rangers have overachieved all season. Plus, in the second half New York regressed to a 46.4 CorsiFor percentage and a 76.1 penalty-kill percentage.

The Ryan McDonagh injury looms large, too.

I was seriously considering Aleksander Barkov and Vladimir Tarasenko, but perhaps while still somewhat sentimental after a Danny Willett payday Sunday, couldn't help thinking about how enjoyable it would be to watch Crosby lead the Penguins deep and return another cash out. Additionally, with a strong belief in Pittsburgh advancing, Crosby could flirt with a top-15 showing and only play two rounds.

 

Picks 11-24 were:

 

11. Jonathan Toews

12. Anze Kopitar

13. Vladimir Tarasenko

14. Filip Forsberg

15. Joe Thornton

16. Artemi Panarin

17. Kris Letang

18. Jaromir Jagr

19. Artem Anisimov

20. Alexander Steen

21. Mats Zuccarello

22. Henrik Zetterberg

23. Claude Giroux

24. Nikita Kucherov

 

No doubt, some of these selections were poor, but in 2007, I stacked seven or eight Kings out of the eighth seed to win after grabbing Bruins with my first two or three picks. If a surprise team advances to the Conference Finals and you're stacked, you win in a 24-team setting. This is an especially worthwhile strategy if you're drafting late.

At the same time, I won in 2007 with Andy McDonald and Jason Spezza as my first two selections picking 18th out of 20.

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Here are the big roster stacks.

10 players from the same team: Three (Blues, Rangers and Red Wings)

Nine players from the same team: Two (Predators and Penguins)

Eight players from the same team: (Wild)

Seven players from the same team: (Stars)

Six players from the same team: (Panthers, Islanders, Penguins, Capitals and Kings)

 

I'm in the six-player stack with Penguins. Here is how the rest of my roster shook out:

 

1. Sidney Crosby

2. Evgeni Malkin

3. Patric Hornqvist

4. Nick Bonino

5. Jamie McGinn

6. Chris Stewart

7. Justin Schultz

8. Brandon Pirri

9. Shea Theodore

10. Brian Dumoulin

 

Malkin was almost selected earlier, but the health concerns scared the person off. There was no reason for me to not push all in. T.J. Oshie, Ryan Kesler and Jonathan Huberdeau were the next three picks after Malkin, and passing on Malkin was impossible after I checked this out.

In hindsight, I could have stacked Tarasenko and another Blue or Barkov and Huberdeau, but really, I'll chase the Crosby-Malkin combo because when else has that even been a possibility?

Hornqvist and Bonino ensured a Conference Finals appearance would put my club in contention, and the Pittsburgh heavy team started with Kris Letang, Phil Kessel, Jake Muzzin and Matt Cullen. Mind you, Carl Hagelin, Trevor Daley and four more bottom liners make the nine-Pens club a potential risk. I like my chances, though.

I was extremely pleased to grab the Ducks I did. All four are going to flirt with power-play time and should be in the top-six equation. How it all shakes out will likely have a lot to do with the health of David Perron. Additionally, Getzlaf and Perry are expected to play together to begin the series. So there are a lot of moving parts here.

Since joining Pittsburgh, Schultz has eight points in 18 games, and if the Penguins can advance to the second round, he'll likely hit the scoresheet three times. Dumoulin was the 233rd pick of the draft. I could have rolled with Derrick Pouliot, which would have been the upside pick, but I worry about Pouliot's playing time. He only played four of the final 18 games of the season, after all.

Theodore is also a bit risky, but he is also a touch on the talented side, and Anaheim doesn't routinely keep their talent out of the lineup. Plus, Kevin Bieksa and Sami Vatanen are battling injuries. Theodore only needs to log two or three points to return value.

Nashville is a worrisome opponent. And while they don't boast strong possession statistics (50.2 CorsiFor percentage since the All-Star break), they're comparably deep alongside the Ducks, and there are game-breaking talents in their lineup.

 

***

 

Here are some news updates from around the league:

David Krejci will undergo hip surgery and played through the injury for roughly 20 games down the stretch. He wasn't sharp during the playoff push with just three goals and 12 helpers through his final 22 games, but it is worth noting two goals and two assists came in a single outing. As a center, Krejci isn't a player to reach for in the majority of fantasy formats next season, albeit, he is a pretty reliable scorer who should return another 60-point season.

David Backes and Troy Brouwer didn't practice Monday, and they're both day-to-day. Head coach Ken Hitchcock has basically tried to establish the entire team is day-to-day, though. Where are we at on this series, Dobberheads?

In Tampa Bay, Victor Hedman said he will suit up for Game 1 Wednesday, but Tyler Johnson has to be a long shot after the hit he took Saturday night. With the onslaught of injuries, Detroit should be able to win that series. And while I wouldn't be surprised either way, Ben Bishop will need to be flawless.

Ryan Kesler is likely to be back for Game 1, and he really turned it on down the stretch with 41 points through 43 games since the calendar flipped to 2016, including a healthy 17 goals. It is also worth noting, Kesler projects to matchup against Filip Forsberg.

Alex Galchenyuk played the with a broken right pinky finger since March 3, yet he still posted a point-per-game mark through the final 17 games of the season with 11 goals. Impressive. Piggy backing off a point from Cliffy, and talking to a few Habs fans tonight, Michel Therrien has hindered Galchenyuk's development and held the youngster back.

Zach Parise is still dealing with a back injury, and he is questionable for Game 1. I'm more optimistic than most in Minnesota's upside potential, but Parise is obviously integral to a Wild appearance in the second round. With this news, he is a very risky selection at this stage.

 

***

 

The Red Wings are currently decent underdogs against Tampa Bay, I'm surprised, and I'm officially in on the upset. What say you?

Until next time, good luck with your playoff endeavours before the pucks drop Wednesday.

 

4 Comments

  1. Allan Phillips 2016-04-12 at 07:17

    While I’m clearly biased as a Blackhawks fan, I think the Hawks take this tough series. They were playing poorly in March but seem to have recovered a bit, and they did the exact same thing last year. St. Louis is bruising and talented, but I’m not a fan of how Hitchcock coaches. I don’t think he gets the best out of his players and he spreads his offense out too much across the lines. To me, the wild card is Brouwer. He has shown to be a heart & soul guy and could drive them.

    • Neil Parker 2016-04-12 at 08:48

      Fabbri-Stastny-Brouwer were impressive down the stretch, and I agree, that trio could give the Blackhawks qustionable depth an issue.

  2. number54 2016-04-12 at 11:20

    The Wings need to get some better goaltending and man-to-man coverage in their own zone if they’re going to take on tampa. They’ve been uncharacteristically loose defensively for the last month or so — especially for a team that plays with so much structure to their game.

    • Neil Parker 2016-04-12 at 12:11

      Yes, and it looks like Tyler Johnson practiced today, too. It’ll be a good series.

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