Ramblings: Evgeni Malkin, Connor Hellebuyck and more (May 16)

Neil Parker

2017-05-16

Evgeni Malkin - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Monday's game was awful.

While there were some highlights, for the most part, it was a slow and calculated chess match. The Sens spent the entire game playing not to lose. The dramatics between Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel were more entertaining than the actual game.

There were just seven high-danger chances at five-on-five in the first two periods, and outside of Sidney Crosby's typical remarkable play, there wasn't a lot of entertainment value. Erik Karlsson was tired from playing Oakmont on Sunday, and Malkin was floating most of the night. Kessel's goal was because of a fortunate bounce off a blocked shot.

This whole playing-not-to-lose approach is a total bore. Ottawa basically strategized to be in a position for a fast-break, odd-man-rush goal to take the lead and then never give it up. Or, if behind, surround the opposing net in a fourth-and-goal formation with the goalie pulled and hope for a bounce to go their way late. If Plan B was successful, Ottawa would have reverted back to Plan A in overtime.

The Senators didn't generate a single high-danger chance at five-on-five in the third period. 

Sure, there were some big hits, but fast-paced hockey with quick passes and offensive creativity is the best. Monday's game was the furthest thing from that. The game was played on the walls, it was choppy, and it was the absolute pits for fantasy.

This isn't about the lack of goals, either. It's about the lack of pace and chances.

 

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Erik Karlsson playing golf Sunday with hairline fractures in his heel doesn't seem like the smart move. I could care less, but I have no stake in what happens with the Senators. Ottawa fans, what say you?

 

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Leading into last fall, I advised steering clear of Evgeni Malkin early in drafts. Here is one particular snippet from late August:

Evgeni Malkin is a third-round selection for me, as in, he is outside my top-25 players. Replacement level is high at center, and if Malkin still has winger eligibility it's great, but you're going to have to deal with injuries, so there's no point guaranteeing you do with one of your first two picks. Again, he's averaged just 62 games per year over the past three seasons.

 

Malkin 71 played exactly 62 games in 2016-17, and missed the fantasy stretch drive or playoffs. Sure, through five months, I looked foolish. However, No. 71 once again let us down. I made him my third-round selection in an industry keeper league, and ultimately missed the playoffs with him stashed in a DL slot after being in contention all season.

Something popped up while peeking at stats that has me more encouraged about his value for rotisserie setups going forward, though. Malkin recorded 77 PIM last season, which was his highest total since the 2009-10 campaign, and unlike typical boosts in penalties, he didn't receive any 10-minute misconducts or huge single-game totals.

In fact, Malkin has recorded at least 60 PIM in each of the past four seasons, which is a nice little bonus from an elite scorer. Rarely is his contribution in the category mentioned, either.

Head-to-head leagues are still a tough sell because of the risk that Malkin misses a critical stretch of the season. However, in yearly roto settings, 65 games of Malkin's production with 15 games from his replacement will still yield elite marks.

To put it into better perspective, here are the players with at least 25 goals, 40 points, 150 shots and 75 PIM last season:

 

Those offensive benchmarks are well below Malkin's numbers, too.

 

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Here is a quick read on the Winnipeg goaltending situation. After posting a league-best .941 save percentage among all goalies with at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five during the 2015-16 season, Hellebuyck posted a .918 mark last year. Over the past two seasons, his .925 save percentage at five-on-five ranks 25th among all goalies with at least 2,500 minutes.

It's a respectable starting point, and especially considering the injuries Winnipeg dealt with on its blue line this year. His company is also solid:

 

So, back to the article, it would be surprising to me if Winnipeg shipped out significant talent for a goaltender. Adding a veteran through free agency to complement Hellebuyck makes sense.

However, one concern is that Winnipeg allowed the eighth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, and Hellebuyck still posted the sixth-worst save percentage against high-danger shots among all goalies with at least 2,500 minutes last year. It's worth adding that his HDSV% dropped from .813 in 2015-16 to just .788 mark last year.

The upcoming season will be telling for Hellebuyck, but there is still oodles of upside, and Winnipeg is close to being really good. Stay the course.

 

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The Blues aren't expected to make many offseason moves, but one area of concern is up the middle. In particular, the St. Louis brass, and Jori Lehtera himself, aren't overly impressed with the production of the 29-year-old pivot. He dropped to just 22 points through 64 games this past season, despite Vladimir Tarasenko being his most frequent linemate at five-on-five.

There is no way of knowing just how much Lehtera dragged Tarasenko down this season, but the center's 1.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five without Tarasenko is a telling — and horrible — statistic. Over the past three seasons, Lehtera and Tarasenko have combined for 3.29 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Lehtera owns a 1.65 mark without the star winger.

A full season with a legitimate top-six center could make a world of difference for Tarasenko. However, it is worth noting that this past year was the first time in three years that Tarasenko's goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five was higher without Lehtera than it was while sharing the ice with him, so there is some chemistry.

 

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Expect Ryan Kesler to be watched closely by the officials in Game 3. There have been murmurs of him being under the skin of Ryan Johansen already, but Johansen has four even-strength points in the series, which is more than Connor McDavid and Sean Monahan combined for through 11 games against Anaheim during the first two rounds of the playoffs. Johansen's comments drew attention to Kesler, and Nashville also has the advantage of last change and home-ice advantage Tuesday to avoid the matchup more easily. The Preds are 5-0 at home during the playoffs, and Johnasen's comments didn't seem heated, worrisome or overly engaged. He was logical and called Kelser out for being a greaseball.

 

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A quick piece of housekeeping, Tampa Bay inked Taylor Raddysh to an entry-level contract Monday.

Here is his DobberProspects profile.

The obvious concerns are that his production is the result of playing alongside high-end talents (Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat), and that his skating ability isn't up to par for the highest level. Skating ability is less of a concern in 2017 as it was even five or six years ago. Both dedication to improving technique and off-ice training can make a difference in a hurry, so it's more a character issue than ability, at least to a certain degree.

Raddysh could be a quick riser because he could probably slide into an offensive role and succeed immediately, and Tampa Bay doesn't exactly have a roster loaded with ironmen. The Bolts have also shown a willingness to promote players quickly, albeit sometimes out of necessity. 

 

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Stephane Da Costa is looking to return to the NHL, and there are interested teams in North America and Russia. He has six goals and 10 points through just six games with France in the World Championships, and the 27-year-old forward has posted 46 goals and 96 points through 94 games over the past three KHL seasons.

He would be a mid-line asset that would probably return to the NHL at a manageable cap hit. It's worth noting that shootout goals are included in the Worlds, so with two shootout tallies, his total is a little misleading.

All said, a 20-goal, 40-point, 150-shot season with a handful of power-play points and some hits wouldn't be shocking, but in most fantasy settings that's a replacement-level player. 

 

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Nashville and Anaheim aren't going to let us down tonight. There will be a gem on the television.

 

 

 

5 Comments

  1. Ron 2017-05-16 at 11:05

    I thought the game last night was pretty entertaining. Huge hits. Great saves. Good quality plays at high speed.

    Couldn’t Care Less – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw

    • Ron 2017-05-16 at 11:07

      …and to not be a total hater…nice ramblings. I particularly enjoyed the Jets goalie situation thoughts.

      • Neil Parker 2017-05-16 at 13:40

        All good, and I’m especially glad that you enjoyed the game. Thanks for tuning in.

  2. Glenn Loucks 2017-05-16 at 12:01

    Re: Ottawa fans what say you?
    Yeah, agreed the Sens lacked something on Monday. Fair to say that as goes Karlsson, so goes the rest of the team, and if he was playing tired or sore because of exerting himself on his day off, that’s not smart.
    Sens’ puck possesssion was awful compared to first game. Playing defensive hockey or not, they looked like they didn’t want to over exert themselves. I was afraid of it turning into a rout, almost thankful it was ‘only’ a 1-0 loss.

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-16 at 13:42

      I didn’t think Karlsson was particularly bad or anything, and that was more a jab about the golf. Games 3 and 4 will be telling. Pittsburgh blue lines is a mess.

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