Ramblings: Game 1 Fallout, Veteran Fatigue and Prospective Golden Knights (May 30)

Neil Parker

2017-05-30

Jake Guentzel - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

 

How about starting things off with a throwback Ramblings.

Over a year later, the opening goal of the Stanley Cup finals was overturned by a video replay. It looked like the right call was made, but really, the on-ice angle was no worse than anything you're going to see on a screen.

The coach's challenge lasted over six minutes, and Pittsburgh followed it up with three straight goals and buried the Predators. James Neal took a bad penalty, but Patric Hornqvist fell awful easily to send Calle Jarnkrok to the sin bin and hand Pittsburgh a five-on-three man advantage. 

Things spiraled from there.

First, it was an Evgeni Malkin power-play tally, then Conor Sheary scored his FIRST goal of the postseason on a nice cross-ice pass, and Nick Bonino followed those two goals up with a one-handed backhand pass/shot toward the net that Pekka Rinne poked off Mattias Ekholm's shin pad and back into their own net.

Boom, the Pens score three goals in just over four minutes, including the first two in just over a minute.

The Predators scored six power-play goals through the first three rounds of the playoffs for a disastrous 4.3 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage and mediocre 14.9 power-play percentage. So, it was encouraging to see Nashville score two power-play tallies to make it 3-2, and then Frederick Gaudreau netted his first career goal to even the score with 6:31 remaining in the game.

Boom, the Predators are back.

Of course, Jake Guentzel snapped an eight-game goal drought to pot his league-leading 10th playoff goal, and then Bonino scored his second goal of the game into an empty net to seal Game 1.

 

The storylines will be the Subban goal called back, Neal's bad penalty, and then Pittsburgh's 37 minutes without a shot on net. Rinne's play might be questioned, but the Guentzel goal that followed the Pittsburgh shot drought was a snipe job. A quick-release laser that fits just under the bar can't be considered a weak goal, right? Rinne probably should have fought off Malkin's goal, but it was also a five-on-three power play, and there was traffic in front.

 

From a fantasy perspective, Sheary and Guentzel showing up is a huge boost for Pittsburgh and a reminder of the upside both of the youngsters own. Additionally, Chris Kunitz now has five points — two goals — over his past two games. The 37-year-old winger is chasing his fourth Stanley Cup and has 86 career playoff points.

Matt Murray labored at points and was run over a number of times. His health could have a serious impact on the outcome of this series. Dating back to the regular season, Murray is now 20-3-2 with a .926 save percentage on home ice. He's also 4-1 with a .936 mark during the playoffs.

 

If nothing else, the Predators have the confidence they can bounce back, and once again, the next-man up came through with Colton Sissons, Gaudreau, Jarnkrok and Austin Watson all finding the scoresheet. Mike Fisher scored his first point of the postseason, too.

 

***

 

Jim Houston is the best in the business. When you throw a Sergei Zubov-Darryl Sydor reference midgame, you're in. I'll give him a pass on mistaking Frederick Gaudreau for Mike Fisher, too. I'm still not sure who this Gaudreau guy is, either, if we're being honest.

 

***

 

While stat diving, I noticed that Radim Vrbata, Marian Hossa and Bobby Ryan were all on the ice for very few five-on-five high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at the end of the season.

 

After March 1:

Ryan 7.8 over 12 games

Vrbata 7.2 over 18 games

Hossa 7.8 over 17 games

 

Before March 1:

Ryan 8.9 over 50 games

Vrbata 9.1 over 61 games

Hossa 9.8 over 56 games

 

The obvious explanation was that the veterans wore down over the course of the season, but there could be oodles of reasons. Here's a look at a handful of others.

After March 1:

Eric Staal 13.7 over 21 games

Alexander Steen 11.8 over 20 games

Justin Williams 9.6 over 18 games

Thomas Vanek 10.7 over 20 games

Joe Thornton 14.0 over 17 games

Jaromir Jagr 12.4 over 20 games

Jeff Carter 12.4 over 19 games

Joe Pavelski 12.6 over 19 games

Henrik Zetterberg 9.6 over 21 games

Ryan Kesler 14.7 over 19 games

 

Before March 1:

Staal 11.3 over 61 games

Steen 8.4 over 56 games

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Williams 11.6 over 61 games

Vanek 12.3 over 48 games

Thornton 11.8 over 61 games

Jagr 9.6 over 61 games

Carter 11.4 over 63 games

Pavelski 12.1 over 61 games

Zetterberg 10.2 over 61 games

Kesler 12.7 over 63 games

 

These were just random inquires, and it appears that there isn't clear indication that older players are on the ice for fewer high-danger scoring chances at the end of the season compared to earlier in the year.

However, just like rookies out of the NCAA usually slow down over the course of the year, veterans appear to also be somewhat prone to wearing down. Age is just one of many potential variables, but it's certainly something to be mindful of.

A decline in scoring chances might not actually result in fewer points. Zetterberg capped on the 2016-17 campaign on a scoring tear (20 points through his final 21 games).

It was just interesting to see those three stand out initially, and then find that all three had declining scoring chances. Perhaps, the next task is to check and see if younger players tend to show an uptick in scoring chances as the season progresses.

The final takeaway is to be aware and consider more than just the traditional statistics before making roster decisions. And the deeper the league, the more impact deep dives can have.

 

***

 

I did a spot on the FNTSY Network on Monday discussing the upcoming expansion draft. Here are my notes regarding the four main players we discussed. I'll share the video when it pops up.

 

Sami Vatanen

Anaheim has five forwards it needs to protect in Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry, Jacob Silfverberg and Rickard Rakell, and the defensive depth to allow Vatanen to walk.

The other important piece of this puzzle is that it could take over five months for Vatanen to recover from his recent shoulder surgery, so his injury status is another factor in how this plays out.

The 25-year-old defenseman declined to just 0.38 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, which was fifth worst among all defenseman with at least 1,000 minutes. He posted a 0.96 mark over the previous three years.

Vatanen started 55.3 percent of his five-on-five shifts in the defensive zone this season, and his 48.9 Corsi For percentage was his lowest mark since establishing himself as a regular in the league. He still maintained some fantasy value with 14 power-play points, but his even-strength play declined significantly under Randy Carlyle.

 

Jason Zucker

If Jason Pominville waved his no-movement clause, there is a chance Zucker could stick with the Wild, and Minnesota may also look to make a move leading into the expansion draft. However, losing a middle-six winger while keeping an excellent defense corps in tact probably is a best-case scenario.

Zucker was a five-on-five monster this season with a fifth-ranked 2.39 points and 18th-ranked 1.03 goals per 60 minutes among all skaters with 1,000 minutes. Additionally, both of his most frequent linemates struggled mightily without him, whereas Zucker maintained his excellent production regardless of who he played with.

Considering he averaged just 16 second of power-play time per game and registered a single tally with the man advantage, he's a power-play role away from taking another step forward offensively.

Additionally, the 25-year-old winger is in the heart of his offensive prime.

 

Calle Jarnkrok

The next four to seven games will be very telling for Jarnkork's future with — or without — the Predators. He's probably going to be tasked with a matchup against Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin during the finals, and while he's stepped up his game in the past, he's never been leaned on as a go-to, top-six center with the stakes this high.

Following Mike Ribeiro's demotion to the minors, Jarnkrok turned in an excellent 20-game stretch with eight goals, eight helpers and 40 shots on net while logging 18:58 of ice time, which included 1:31 of ice time.

However, Nashville hasn't needed Jarnkrok to play a big role consistently, and especially offensively, so it's really up in the air if he's a viable top-six option over the course of an entire season.

 

Philipp Grubauer

The consensuses is that Grubauer is going to be plucked from Washington, and it is certainly a logical option for Las Vegas.

The only other candidate that sticks out from Washington is Nate Schmidt. The defenseman showcased excellent mobility and skating ability during the playoffs while also playing a solid possession game with solid puck-distribution acumen.

Grubauer is coming off an excellent season, though, and considering the long-term value a star goalie can have makes him the right choice. Plus, Vegas general manager George McPhee was at the helm when Grubauer was drafted by the Capitals in 2010.

Among all goalies with at least 20 games played, Grubauer's .940 five-on-five save percentage ranked third, and he posted a .926 mark with a 2.04 GAA overall. With 51 career starts over five years, he's ready to take on a larger start share, and he profiles as a perfect fit to split starts beginning in 2017-18.

 

 

***

 

Cheers, Dobberheads.

 

 

14 Comments

  1. Rick Roos 2017-05-30 at 06:23

    Really liked the expansion draft player discussions. For those interested, be sure to come back tomorrow to see more on Zucker as part of this week’s cage match. Any guesses on who his opponent might be? I’ll give you a hint – they’ll both be 25 when the puck drops in October, yet Zucker was drafted two years earlier.

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-30 at 07:38

      Thanks, Rick. Hopefully the video will pop up soon, and I can link it in. I believe you’re referring to Mr. Tanner Pearson. But I had to cheat.

      • Rick Roos 2017-05-30 at 08:31

        It’s indeed Tanner Pearson!

  2. Striker 2017-05-30 at 08:48

    Actually only 0:14 PP TOI/GP for Zucker per game. I have been beating that drum for a long time so that #’s just rolling around in my head. Ha-ha! If he gets even 2nd line PP time next year, add 5 to 7 goals & 10 to 15 points, add another 7 to 10 points for development/opportunity with Pominville gone.

    Pominville won’t even need to waive unless he simply wants to delay his buyout until the 2nd window. His contract needs to come off the books due to his NMC for the expansion draft & he’s not worth his 5.6 cap hit for 2 more years. I guess Minny could try to pay someone to take him off their hands, I just don’t see that happening. Although with 5D protectors currently they may be able to package with 1 of those Dman if they can find a deal with 1 of the 10 teams on his list of teams he agrees to accept a trade to in 2016-17. His 2.5 mil signing bonus on July 1st is problematic, most teams would want that paid before accepting him in trade. Anyone know if Pominville is bought if that 2.5 signing bonus due July 1st counts as part of the buy out penalty as salary? I know it does for the purposes of determining cap hut but if bought out before the bonus is due July 1st will it count in the 2/3rd’s cap hit spread over 4 years?

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-30 at 10:30

      My sources had 16 seconds. haha.
      It’s going to be an exciting time for us poolies, and I figure a busy time scribe’n and breaking down the deal.
      I have no idea about Pominville — you’re much more up to date on the nuances of the cap, expansion, buyouts etc. etc.

      • Striker 2017-05-30 at 10:59

        All good just rousting you. The only thing I use NHL.com for almost, conventional stats & team pages to check management & ownership names & spelling.

        Lets get this party started already.

  3. Phatsy 2017-05-30 at 08:50

    Can you see Mike Smith going to Vegas?

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-30 at 10:28

      Yes, if for no other reason than to help get to the salary cap floor.

      • Ryan Taylor 2017-05-30 at 13:54

        Vegas is going to have no issues getting to the salary cap floor, based on the expansion restrictions.

  4. Karl Paquette 2017-05-30 at 09:29

    Love the ramblings always do neil- your off season coverage is fantastic. Its prospective though- not perspective. Just trying to help- great insights today…

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-30 at 10:27

      Thanks. I would have never caught that slip up, either.

  5. Mark Legolas Stone 2017-05-30 at 19:16

    Jim Hughson is the most boring announcer in the game. The best? Are you kidding?

  6. MasterMind 2017-06-01 at 23:19

    Why the hell would Anaheim protect Ryan Kesler and let vatanen go. Kesler is old, overpaid and on a major decline. Look at his second half stats compared to the first half. It would be a blessing if Vegas took Kesler off the ducks hands and saved them all that cap space. The ducks main forwards are all old and on the decline.

    • Dobber 2017-06-02 at 06:56

      There’s zero question they do that. Plus Vatanen is injury prone and unproven.
      They just signed Kesler to that deal and he’s coming off a fantastic season and playoff

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