Ramblings: Jordan Eberle Breaks the Drought! (Jan 19)

steve laidlaw

2017-01-19

Ramblings: Eberle finally scores, Bergeron downright hot and more.

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The Midseason Guide was released last weekend, what are you waiting for? Besides the second-half projections, this beauty will also have players on the trade block (and what it means), prospects ready to make the jump for a dozen games down the stretch, the lowdown on undrafted or unsigned free agents (both in college and in Europe) and much more. Last year’s Midseason Guide had Troy StecherDrake Caggiula, Nick Lappin, Brandon Tanev, Alexander Radulov and Anton Rodin, to give you a small sample. Imagine getting a heads up on players like that in January instead of finding out about them in April or even July? Order it here

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The Bruins blew it against the Wings last night, which has folks calling for Claude Julien’s head. I’d go the other direction. This team is over-performing expectations by remaining in the hunt. They’ve got a GREAT top-six, an exceptional goaltender and maybe two or three defensemen you’d really get excited about. They’ve hung in the playoff race despite down years from their top two centermen. No one was picking these guys to be a contender. They were supposed to be rebuilding on the fly but with Julien at the helm and their foundational pieces, I buy them as contenders. They just need to fill out the roster.

The Bruins have been linked to Gabriel Landeskog but what about Kevin Shattenkirk? He’s a pending UFA so he’d come cheaper but he went to Boston U so maybe there’s a chance he’d re-sign in Boston.

Ryan Spooner has been rumoured to be available for a while. Perhaps a Spooner+ package gets you Shattenkirk. If I were the GM, I’d be trying to upgrade the bottom-six forwards to help match the skating and skill of some of the East juggernauts but some blueline help would work too. Then you just hope that Matt Beleskey can return from injury and provide some bang for your buck.

There is some overlap in skillset between Kevin Shattenkirk and Torey Krug but you never turn down the chance to get a good player if that chance is there.

This is purely speculation on my part but if Shattenkirk really is available, I like the fit for Boston, purely because he might actually re-sign there. But it’s possible he just wants to hit free agency.

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Patrice Bergeron had his first three-point game of the season. That pushes him to five goals and 11 points in his last 11 games. Believe in this, folks!

Frank Vatrano and David Pastrnak swapped lines so Pastrnak was with David Krejci, while Vatrano got to feast on the big night from Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Two goals for Vatrano, who is a legit talent.

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Five goals for the Wings and miraculously no points for Anthony Mantha. Shit happens. Just ask Brandon Carlo who blew a tire, leading to Tomas Tatar’s breakaway goal. No one says Tatar is without talent but I’ve given up on him, three-point game and all.

I’m much more interested in Thomas Vanek. Check out this sweet pass to Andreas Athanasiou, who also warrants consideration in your fantasy league:

Jared Coreau was chased early and Petr Mrazek performed well in relief, eventually earning a win. We are nowhere near the point where we should be taking either of the Wings’ goaltenders seriously but Mrazek owners should hope that this is a building block, while keeping him firmly glued to their bench.

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Carey Price has now conceded three goals or more in eight of his last 10 games. It’s been a truly dismal run that has seen him stop just 88.3% of the shots he has faced. If you can find someone willing to panic-trade him, take that idiot to the cleaners.

Alex Galchenyuk has just one point in three games since returning from injury but his minutes have been up above his season average. He also continues to see top power play unit usage. It’s important to note that his minutes have been up because the Canadiens have had only four PP chances in the three games since his return. You’d expect he’ll be seeing something like 18 minutes per game if the start seeing multiple PP chances per game.

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Jake Guentzel continues to be a person of interest. Give him six points in seven games now. He has also piled on 24 hits in those seven games.

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Jordan Eberle finally broke the seal, ending an 18-game drought with a goal last night. As I’ve mentioned the past few weeks, he had been getting chances but could not finish. Now, I suspect, the floodgates will be open. Although it is worth noting that he missed on a chance to win it in overtime. No worries, Connor McDavid capped a three-point night with the winner instead:

His mitts looked like a rat running through a maze, my word.

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Vincent Trocheck has nine goals and 16 points in 12 games since Aleksander Barkov got hurt. Barkov can stay out forever as far as I’m concerned. That’s a selfish notion but Trocheck’s always going to be in Barkov’s long shadow, which is disappointing. I’m still waiting for the coach that figures out to just use them both extensively. Particularly, using them together on the power play. Load up one unit and enjoy!

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Michael Sgarbossa scored his first career NHL goal. He warrants some consideration in deep leagues because he is seeing secondary PP time but the list of players of the Panthers I’d take ahead of him is long.

In shallower leagues, I’m only interested in Trocheck, Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad. Ekblad has four assists in the past three games but he’s most interesting because he is on pace for 269 SOG, a fantastic output for a defenseman. Sure, Ekblad’s got a minus-17 rating but my approach has been to punt plus/minus and win the rest of the categories.

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Logan Couture was out sick last night, opening up a coveted spot on the Sharks’ top PP unit. Timo Meier got a shot there but it didn’t last. Joel Ward took over later in the game and eventually added a PP assist. We’ve seen Ward produce while replacing Couture before so if he misses any more time be prepared to use Ward as a streaming option or in daily fantasy.

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Tanner Pearson has scored seven goals and 11 points in 13 games since Tyler Toffoli got hurt. He’s playing bigger minutes with Toffoli out, including filling in on the top PP unit but only one of his 11 points during this run has come with the man-advantage. He’s simply stepping his game up, which makes you wonder if he can continue it once Toffoli returns.

I am dubious that he can. Even without the power-play production, Pearson is shooting the puck way more with Toffoli out. He’s fired 38 SOG in these 13 games, nearly three per game. He was below two per game before the Toffoli injury.

Toffoli has been skating but has no time-table for his return. The initial prognosis was three to six weeks. We’re at four weeks now. My guess is we see him after the All-Star break.

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An important note from Elliotte Friedman’s latest 30 Thoughts:

17. One thing to note about Winnipeg’s goalie situation: Connor Hellebuyck is now waiver eligible. He hit 60 games last Friday in Arizona.

The Jets are pretty-well locked into a three-headed goalie monster now. They obviously aren’t getting rid of Hellebuyck, who is their future. Michael Hutchinson has value as the goalie they’ll expose in the expansion draft and now they’ve got Ondrej Pavelec back up as a shot in the dark to upgrade the position.

I don’t think Pavelec is an upgrade but strange things can happen over small sample sizes. As bad as Pavelec has been over his career he has strung together some hot runs of play. Any goalie good enough to crack an NHL roster can get hot for a few weeks and that can be enough to create fantasy relevance.

Pavelec did enough to win against the Coyotes, which these days isn’t much. He did have this highlight reel save:

You must also note the brutal rebound control, which forces the second effort. Pavelec himself would admit that this was bad. He also allowed a couple of softies early in the first but I won’t torch him yet. In fact, I picked up Pavelec in one league. It was mostly desperation but also because the Coyotes offered the potential for an easy win. Mission accomplished. Let’s see how Pavelec fairs in the games ahead. The Jets face the Blues, Ducks, Sharks and Blackhawks before the All-Star break. No more gimmies.

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This news isn’t really fantasy relevant because the Avalanche goalies shouldn’t be owned in any leagues.

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My latest for Puck Daddy looks at which teams are trending up and which are trending down from a scoring perspective.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

19 Comments

  1. Stan Raine 2017-01-19 at 08:55

    When will the Jets get it. You won’t win without a good Goalie… Ben Bishop…

    • Dobber 2017-01-19 at 09:15

      I’m 100% confident in Hellebuyck’s future. Far ahead of where Bishop was at that age. When Bishop was 23, he had played 6 NHL games. When Bishop was 25 his career NHL record was 7-8-3.

      Patience. Conner will be a star. The Jets should be looking for a backup, not a starter.

      • Paul Evensen 2017-01-19 at 11:39

        Just curious… Do you feel the same about Vasilevskiy at this point? Seems like a lot of folks have their confidence in him thoroughly shaken by his recent run of bad play, but I wouldn’t sell him any cheaper now than I would have a month ago.

        • Striker 2017-01-19 at 12:24

          I do. Most goalies don’t become starters in the NHL untill they are 26. Vas just turned 22 this summer. TB due to injuries & the decline in play of their #2 D pairing of Garrison & Sustr has been problematic for both goalies. Vas has certainly struggled recently but part of the trials & tribulations of learning to be a starter as well as team issues.

          Gibson 23 & Allen now StL starter having just turned 26 in August still aren’t as consistent as anyone would like but the skill sets are there. Will the realize that potential? Will Hellebuyck or Vas? That’s the million dollar question. All are going to be given every opportunity to be & if not with their respective teams they will get a chance some where else eventually.

    • Striker 2017-01-19 at 10:48

      I’m all in on Hellebuyck’s ability to be a star, he is almost today. Myers has now missed 37 games & counting. How well would most teams fair with their #2 Dman out of the line up? Add in Little, Stafford, Armia, Matthias, Perreault, Dano, who all missed significant games to injury, now Laine & the Trouba hold out & Hellebuyck’s 907 SV% is pretty impressive.

      Injuries have been by far Winnipeg’s biggest issue but their lack of discipline specially Buffy’s has cost this team wins. Nor are they a playoff team. They are a bubble team but injures have killed any real hope of making the playoffs.

      The NHL’s false hope scoring system, the 3 point games, & showing standings by points as opposed to winning % gives a false impression of how well teams are playing. The NHL thinks were stupid & can’t see the reality of this system & expressing their standings is this way. It may for others but it certainly doesn’t for me.

      The only hope Winnipeg has of making the playoffs now is if they can string 12 wins into a stretch of 15 games playing 500; well the NHL’s perception of 500 not mine, an OTL is a loss to me not a tie even though teams get a point, in the remainder of their games. Do you see that happening? I don’t.

      • Striker 2017-01-19 at 10:52

        Teams with a -13 goal differential don’t make the playoffs. No current statistic better reflects what teams make the playoffs. Go look at the final standings over the last decade & with a few minor exceptions in the 7th thru 8th spots in the east & 8th in the west the teams with the best goal differentials make the playoffs 95% of the time. For obvious reasons. If you score more goals than you allow you win more games.

        • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2017-01-20 at 15:04

          Blues are the third seed right now in the central at -11 goal differential, but ya the statistic is usually a good indicator of team that should make the playoffs.

          • Striker 2017-01-20 at 16:25

            Did I miss a memo? Is the season over? Did you go back & look at the final standings & who made the playoffs over the last decade in each conference by goals differential? Did I not state that in the East there has been a few exceptions at 7 & 8 & in the west at 8th?

            If you want to take a snap shot today & apparently you do with in equality in games, not just the # played but there are also significant variances in the games teams have played home & away here is what it shows.

            In the East 1 team with a negative goals differential is holding down a playoff spot. In the west there are 2. Again games played never mind home & away disparity is a significant factor. This proves me right today as I see it! Your point was?

            I don’t wish to be rude but can read? Take the time to go look as I suggested. I have many times. I lay wagers for a whole range of things & stats & odds of probability are the single biggest factor I use. Injures, quality of competition especially by division & conference, game distribution, how many games teams played or have to play in how many nights; home or away, the development of youth, etc. which basically are subjective & I call educated intuition are secondary but factor in some how. Just impossible to quantify.

            Like Dobber, Steve etc. I like to point out when I win. I win every year, I have since 1982 & I’m not talking chump change on bets. SJ paid in spades last year, someone does every year. I win my pools outright by draft league, if not always & some years I don’t but rare, I always finish in the money, I win my divisions in my fantasy leagues, have tons of presidents trophies, 2 cups & double digit appearances; a hug luck factor in 2 week playoff segments especially in our leagues where we don’t remove any of the regual season play which has plays sitting down the strecth messing up opportunities. I finish in the money in my box leagues; which should be luck of the draw with injury issues but it kind of balances out with everyone as no substitutions or trades allowed.

            This isn’t luck but deductive reasoning based on primarily stats & the odds of probability coupled with intuition. It works you should try it.

            Another consideration. StL is a solid team. Why are Allen & Hutton so bad?

          • Striker 2017-01-20 at 16:26

            I didn’t mean by standings either but by teams making the playoffs, 8 in each conference. I assumed that was clear but I see how you could have misunderstood that.

          • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2017-01-20 at 22:29

            Its a hockey forum and i raised a counter point to what you are spewing as gospel. If i was in a league with scrubs like you, id win every year also.

          • Striker 2017-01-21 at 00:58

            Ha-ha! How’s life in the backwoods? I’m sorry you feel it necessary to do that to your mother. Maybe when you get older you will have more options.

          • Striker 2017-01-20 at 16:30

            Sorry it chopped off part of my response after why are Allen & Hutton so bad. StL sits 4th by shot suppression yet 6th by goals against per game? This isn’t a D issue. Pietro, Bou, Shatty & Parayako are as solid a top 4 as anyone. They have 3 solid scoring lines & a great 4th checking line. Do you not find this odd? Might it not balance out over the 2nd 1/2 of the season? Or perhaps StL is the exception in the west as they are currently.

            Just a thought.

  2. Striker 2017-01-19 at 10:33

    I believe Pavelic was brought up to get him some games before the trade deadline in hopes that Winnipeg can create some trade value for him. Had he stayed in the AHL moving him would have been hard. This should allow Winnipeg to move for something. Not much a 3rd round pick, soft prospect some combination of the 2.

    Pearson will be fine when Tiffoli returns. He may lose his spot on the #1 PP but isn’t scoring there regardless. He will maintain his LW spot with Carter, Tiffoli will bump Setoguichi out of the #2 RW spot. Pearson is right at his breakthrough point for forwards of his size, 200 NHL regular season games. He has played 189 to date.

    Buy now. Pearson that is.

    • Instant Karma 2017-01-19 at 11:00

      That’s a swell conspiracy theory, but I doubt that Pavelec would have been sent down to begin with had the Jets known that they were looking forward to mediocre-to-poor play from both Helle & Hutch for half a season. I’m going to go w/ Occam’s Razor here.

      • Striker 2017-01-19 at 11:51

        Ha-ha! We all get to have our own opinions. Ours just differ. For me although Hellebuyck has had some poor games he’s had some great 1’s. At 23 playing behind this team a .907 SV% is pretty impressive. Again most teams losing their #2 Dman for this long would doom their season.

    • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2017-01-20 at 15:00

      i cant see anybody trading for a near 5 million dollar goalie that the jets thought so poorly of they had him buried in the minors most of the season. If teams need goalies, im trading for a bishop of fluery first, than maybe a howard or scott darling as secondary options. I just dont see any value there.

      • Striker 2017-01-20 at 15:58

        Pavelic’s annual cap hit is 3.9. NHL players are paid based on the # of days in the regular season. This season that is 179. As of the trade deadline 142 days will have been completed. 3.9 diveded by 179 times 32; days remaining, Pavelic’s cap hit will be 697K. Chump change for some goalie insurance for a playoff run nothing more. Not long term. I thought that part was obvious. Sorry apparently not so now explained for you.

        • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2017-01-20 at 22:32

          is your life so empty and shallow you have to be an obnoxious prick in every response? Well see what teams line up for future hall of famer Pavlec. Maybe edmonton will send McDavid over there right?

  3. wholi 2017-01-19 at 11:32

    Picked up Guentzel yesterday (with 5 Dmen I dropped Vatanen) and was happy to reap the rewards. Looking forward to more this week. :-)

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