Ramblings – July 29 2015

Dobber

2015-07-29

Sean Couturier - USA Today Sports Images Sean Couturier – USA Today Sports Images[/caption]

Re-launching DobberHockey take 2; thoughts on Couturier, Baertschi, the Penguins, the next lockout;  and more…

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How did I know this would happen. Two days later, and I’m doing the Ramblings again on the old site. Well, if you’re reading this mid-morning, hopefully you’re reading it on the new site. If not, then I’m having a bad day.

Once you see this on the brand new site, you can go into the shop and the credit card system will work again. I know a few of you tried over the last two days and it was rejecting you. I didn’t plan for that to be down for two days. Anyway, moving on….

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Gooding doesn’t have his analysis of the Penguins moves yet as I write this, but I’m going to reflect on them here regardless. I think the Canucks got fleeced. While Sutter is a good hockey player, so is Bonino. Sutter has the glory of his name, and his draft position (11th overall) inflating his value. To me, Bonino is the better player. I’ve seen a lot of Sutter, but not too much of Bonino. I know the Vancouver fans, many of them (but not all) believe he sucks. But the advanced stats tell me he’s a great possession player. He played the same kind of minutes that Kesler played and he produced reasonably well with them. So to me, the Penguins got the better player. The Penguins got the better pick (a second for a third). The Penguins got the better cap move (Bonino is cheaper). The Penguins got a bonus gift – an offensive prospect defenseman who, on paper, would fit right into their system. That’s not win-win. That’s win-win-win-win.

And then the Pens added Eric Fehr. Just a great job of showing up the depth positions. Good day for Jim Rutherford.

One concern, however. Pittsburgh is Band-Aid Central. Crosby. Malkin. Letang. Dupuis. Hornqvist. Pouliot. Bennett. Maatta. And now Fehr. To take nine of your regular skaters (45%) and have six of those nine not even play 70 games for your team is pretty tough. And that’s what they’re looking at.

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Sean Couturier signed a big six-year contract with the Flyers for $26 million. At the end of the 2015-16 season his bridge deal was up. He’s already established himself as a premier defensive forward, one that’s good enough for a contract like this one. They needed to sign him now rather than risk a breakout offensively. With a new coach, there is the possibility that he’s used a little differently. Maybe enough to become a Bergeron-type by the numbers?

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Mitch Marner signed his ELC with the Leafs. He won’t be on the team this year or next. At least, not if Babcock is influencing this team the way we think he will. I predict next year he’ll get a nine-game trial, and then joins the team in 2017-18.

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Sven Baertschi signed a one-year deal. It’s a one-way contract worth $900,000 – that’s low enough that it can be buried in the minors but I ‘think’ he needs to clear waivers. It’s hard to check these things without Cap Geek’s tool, so I’m hoping our buddies at Cap Friendly get this tool up soon. Regardless, I think he sticks around and gets in at least 60 games, but I’d be surprised if he got even 35 points in his first full season. He’s streaky, and seems to need inspiration. His arrival in Calgary was with much fanfare and he flourished. His arrival in Vancouver didn’t have the fanfare, but it was a fresh start and again he flourished.

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Lubomir Visnovsky is still hopeful of an NHL contract (I wouldn’t give him one, but some GMs aren’t as smart as I am so you never know). But now he’s considering playing in the Czech or Swiss Leagues. And so it’s time for my annual statement. I say this every year. Go play in Switzerland! They pay well, you still play pro hockey, it’s a beautiful country, it has low taxes – it really strikes me as a nice, relaxing place to live. That’s why so many Canadian hockey players go there and wind up staying. An easier schedule, Visnovsky could probably play for another four years over there.

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Did you notice that Derek Stepan built in a big signing bonus for 2020-21? Sixty percent of his pay that year will be paid up front on July 1, 2020. So he doesn't suffer from any lockout loss. According to TSN, 16 players have already put in a signing bonus for 2020. But – I think the lockout happens in 2022-23. I believe the last CBA had opt outs and each of the two years the NHL and the PA elected to stick with the current CBA. Only when the opt outs ended did the lockout take place.

But anyway, hearing the contract had a lockout-clause (as we’re starting to call it) really impacted me. As my business relies on the NHL being in session…I do not want to go through another half season or full season with no hockey and little income. So I did an involuntary jump in my seat when I saw that Stepan tidbit on Twitter.

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I’ll sign off now, and keep it short. I have a feeling I’ll be re-posting several articles today after the sites get re-launched. Plus I have a Guide to finish and just three days left to write it.

 

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