Ramblings – July 30 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-07-30

Colin Wilson Colin Wilson – USA Today Sports Images[/caption]

 

Thoughts on Wilson’s fantasy future, trends among defensemen, the fallout in Vancouver and more…

I have to say, and I hate to sound biased, but the new layout for the site looks fantastic. It's really hard to describe it as any other way than "clean". The new cosmetic details look sharp, but they still maintain the integrity and essence of the original site. Kudos to Dobber for the changes, and though there are bumps in the road like any roll out of any new site, it promises to be a great step forward for the entire Dobber Sports world.

****

As always on Thursdays, I will have an open thread over on the Dobber Forums for readers to pop in and ask any fantasy question that comes to mind. Maybe a post has gone unread or unanswered elsewhere, and the reader really wants to get a second opinion on it. I'd be more than happy to help. Be sure to head over around lunchtime and I'll have my thread up for both fantasy and non-fantasy hockey questions.

📢 advertisement:

****

There was a signing that went kind of under the radar last week, and that was Colin Wilson re-upping with the Predators. From Cap Friendly, Wilson is going to carry an average annual value just under $4-million per year for the next four years.

Wilson has been a pretty good NHL player for a while, having played just under 300 games going into the 2014-2015 campaign. He never racked up the points – 35 was a career-high before last year – but he was good at driving the play away from his own end, or better than most Nashville forwards, anyway.

I was fortunate to get my hands on some zone entry/exit data from the 2013-2014 season, and it was something that I found very useful when figuring out who might be in line for improvement in the 2014-2015 season.

The math works out like this. It's not quite double the rate, but typically, teams and players will generate about twice the amount of shot attempts if they carry the puck in the zone with control rather than dumping it in. The Fear The Fin blog found this with the Sharks in 2013-2014, and also tracked their opponents in that game. Feel free to peruse the myriad of blogs that have found the same, but that's why zone entries carry so much importance. It's why you see teams (or at least the good ones) take the time to make 3, 4, 5 or more passes, or regroup if they can't enter the zone clean. There are teams that succeed at dumping/retrieving the puck (Los Angeles comes to mind), but that's not often not the case.

This is important because in the data I received – which covers a little over half the 2013-2014 season – Wilson was among the best Predators at entering the offensive zone with control. Only Matt Cullen and Viktor Stalberg were much higher, and Wilson was neck-and-neck with Mike Fisher. I wish I had a bigger sample, but I just don't have it yet.

It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Wilson's shot rate jumped by 0.85 shots per game last season from the year before, despite just about an extra minute of ice time per game. The added offensive pieces like Mike Ribeiro and Filip Forsberg were obviously a big help, but Wilson's style of game is one where the Predators should be able to generate a lot offence with him on the ice.

Wilson's best season saw him as 1 of 57 forwards (from Hockey Reference) that had 20+ goals, 20+ assists, 20+ penalty minutes, and at least two shots per game. That might sound like a lot of players, and it kind of is, but figure that in a 12-team roto league, that's fewer than five forwards per team. That's not bad.

I'm pretty sure Wilson will have C/LW eligibility again next year, and that helps. I also don't think last year was his "career" season; it might be more of a normal season moving forward. I think he's a top-100 forward next year in roto leagues, and won't be drafted as such. Welcome to Valuetown, Mr. Wilson.

****

I would be remiss if I didn't talk about the Nick BoninoBrandon Sutter trade.

This was a deal that seemingly divides the hockey community. The stats people love the trade for Pittsburgh, as it seems to give them that good third line centre that hasn't been around since the Jordan Staal days. The non-stats people love the trade for Vancouver, as Sutter is seen as a hard-nosed player who can kill penalties.

There may be something to Sutter's "hard-nosed" play theory. He is a crater in the possession numbers, but the Penguins always saved a much higher rate of pucks with him on the ice than without. It wasn't really close, either. I'm not a fan of relying on goal metrics, but over a 2 ½ season sample, it's worth consideration (Dion Phaneuf is in this conversation as well).

I don't think Sutter is a "bad" player. He's a fourth line centre who can kill penalties. That has value in the NHL, especially in the modern era.

The thing here is that the Canucks gave up Adam Clendening and a higher-round draft pick in the package to get Sutter and a lower-round pick. That's overpayment. They also see him as foundation piece, which he is not. If you think Sutter is one of your four or five best players, you have a bad team.

In and of itself, this isolated trade isn't a huge deal. In conjunction with things like signing Derek Dorsett for more than one year of lunch money, and trading for Brandon Prust; it starts to add up. This was happened with the Leafs years ago. It was one bad trade, then one bad signing, then another, and another. They're all symptoms of the same disease: a team that is going backwards.

****

Last week, I talked a lot about how goal distribution in the NHL is changing in the NHL, and it's making the non-elite defensemen less valuable. I think it's time we sat down and had The Ryan Suter Talk.

The most important takeaway here is that Suter is not an elite producer among defensemen. At the least, he's not an efficient one. He's also never been a goal-scoring defensemen, and now that so many are contributing in that category, it hurts his value.

He also has 71 total assists over the last two years, which is good – the 71 assists are tied for ninth among all defensemen. He also needed over 1600 more minutes than Kevin Shattenkirk did to reach that number. On a per 60 minute basis, his assist rate at five-on-five over the last two years was lower than Niklas Hjalmarsson. His shooting rate was lower than Karl Alzner. His point rate was lower than Jordie Benn. This isn't good.

I bring this up because Ryan Suter has played a lot of minutes in his career: since becoming a regular NHLer in 2005-2006, the only players with more total ice time are Jay Bouwmeester, Duncan Keith, Zdeno Chara, and Dion Phaneuf. He leads all players in this regard in his three years in Minnesota.

Maybe Suter can keep up his 28-29 minutes a night, and this is all for nothing. The worry here is that maybe the Wild don't need to rely on him next year like they did last year, when they were fighting tooth-and-nail for half a season just to get to the playoffs. Guys like Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, and Marco Scandella are all primed to play more minutes, too.

If he backs off even to 26 minutes a game, and doesn't improve his production efficiency, he's a 35-40 point defenceman instead of 40-45. For me, in fantasy roto leagues, there's no way I draft him as a top-25 defenseman next year.

18 Comments

  1. Dobber Sports 2015-07-30 at 13:10

    testing comments

  2. Dobber Sports 2015-07-30 at 13:11

    Anyone else have a problem commenting?

  3. Aaron 2015-07-30 at 13:33

    Agree that the Bonino-Sutter trade was horrible for Vancouver, however it seems a tad harsh to call him a 4th line centre…. He’s an average 3RD line centre who can kill penalties…

    “If you think Sutter is one of your 4 or 5 best players, you have a bad team.” = I love it, describes the Canucks exactly. They’re like a reeling boxer throwing random punches trying for the miracle KO before the Sedins hit the mat.

  4. David 2015-07-30 at 13:59

    AWESOME!!!!!! LOVE THE NEW LOOK!!!!!!!!

  5. Tom Reeve 2015-07-30 at 14:14

    No problem here.

  6. munch 2015-07-30 at 14:16

    Thanks for the insight on Suter

  7. Peter Dallara 2015-07-30 at 14:19

    I'm good,

  8. Chad Burly 2015-07-30 at 14:23

    I read the ramblings diligently every morning on my phone. With the new website, the word wrapping actually cuts off words in the middle. So rather then moving the whole word to the next line, it just slices it right in the middle. Hard to read that way.

  9. Karlos El Taco Piquante 2015-07-30 at 14:24

    Site looks great! One small issue (Im sure fixes are happening on the fly)- when I read the ramblings- the typing carries over mid-word to the next paragraph.

    Anyways- the visual clean-uplooks fantastic- still checking out the rest- nice work!

  10. Rodgort 2015-07-30 at 14:48

    No I can leave comments fine… if this works.
    Side note 1: Likely an adjustment period is needed but could you guys add more spaces between the paragraphs to make it easier to read?

    Side note 2: the top 300 and top 215 prospect rankings are pretty messed up when I click the page.  Basically the table is gone

  11. lcbtd 2015-07-30 at 14:57

    On my iPad, comments aren't displayed and I thought – well this sucks!  Happy to see that on the desktop version of the site, the comments are still there.  I pick up a lot from the DobberHockey posters.

    Now, if I can just figure out how to access my downloads.  I can get to the ordering part, just can't download what I've already bought.

  12. Ken Duggan 2015-07-30 at 15:05

    I am having problems.  Can't send you an email to describe a problem in your Contacts area.  Bought the Guide and prospects report yesterday and in the Downloads it says "Processing" and I can't access this.  

  13. Matt 2015-07-30 at 15:15

    looks great Dobber. might need to adjust your "style guide" to add an extra line space after paragraphs to make the ramblings more readable.

  14. Dikoi 2015-07-30 at 15:23

    Another vote for more spacing between lines and paragraphs, the rest looks great!

  15. Marc 2015-07-30 at 15:23

    Is there really a person out there that views Brandon Sutter as "hardnosed?" I guess maybe someone that has never see him play.

    I also agree with the prior comment that rating him as a 4th-line center is harsh. He's certainly a better player than that. And sadly, he was one of the Penguins four or five best players during the last two postseasons, so that tells you about all you need to know about the Pens' recent postseasons. 

  16. Dobber Sports 2015-07-30 at 15:48

    FYI

    Spacing is an issue. Not my intent for articles to look like this. Bear with me! Also having problems with images. 

     

    Thanks!

  17. JF Bessette 2015-07-30 at 19:34

    Comments on the comments section:

    o Add one or two blank space after "Reply"

    o Redundance of the "Reply" – Perhaps making it a different color then the date and hour.

    o Why is there a double spacing as I'm writing these comments?

    o Image and hyperlink?

    o I'm making bullet forms with the "o"…

    Website design looks neat and more 2015.

  18. Ian Sharp 2015-07-30 at 23:03

    Very nice article.   Unlike others I agree completely with your take on the Van-Pitt swap.   Sutter is at BEST a decent 3rd line center.  As is Bonino.

    Add Clendenning and the 2nd rounder and this deal is a steal for the Pens.   Only a Canuck optimist will like this deal.   Until Chritmas when reality sets in.

     

    Cheers
     

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
Mar 19 - 19:03 N.J vs PIT
Mar 19 - 19:03 PHI vs TOR
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
CONNOR BEDARD CHI
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
YEGOR SHARANGOVICH CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DANIIL TARASOV CBJ
DEVIN COOLEY S.J
JOEY DACCORD SEA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PIT Players
26.3 BRYAN RUST DREW O'CONNOR SIDNEY CROSBY
19.1 RICKARD RAKELL EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING
17.5 JEFF CARTER EMIL BEMSTROM NOEL ACCIARI

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: