Ramblings – July 31, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-07-31

Jakub Voracek - USA Today Sports Images

Jakub Voracek gets paid, Alex Galchenyuk gets a bridge, and the search for a second value goalie in fantasy.

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Just a couple of quick notes as the site is starting to get its legs under it.

The first is that there won’t be access to your downloads for a little while yet. It shouldn’t be too long – the team is looking at late afternoon today – but for those that are wondering why there’s no access there, that’s why. Again, thank you for your patience, and it shouldn’t be much longer until that part is up and running.

The second note is for those that may have used the DraftKings deal to get a discount on the Dobber reports, there will be a little bit of a delay here, too. Once the download section is up and running, the readers who signed up through DraftKings will have their downloads added there as well.

Thanks again to everyone for understanding as the site transitions over to the new layout. It’s an exciting time, and the kinks should all be worked out soon.

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The big news out of the NHL is of course the extension the Philadelphia Flyers gave to winger Jakub Voracek. Voracek had one year left on his deal, but was going to be an unrestricted free agent after that. The report from TSN, as posted by NHL.com, has the deal at $66-million over eight years, or an average annual value of $8.25M.

This isn’t an overpayment, if anyone out there is thinking that. For an elite unrestricted free agent winger; Phil Kessel has an AAV of $8M, Corey Perry’s is $8.625, and Patrick Kane is at $10.5M (all taken from Cap Friendly). The only one of those players with more points than Voracek (189) over the last three seasons is Kessel (192). Oddly enough, Kessel is the only one of those three players who went without a true number-1 centre on their team over that span.

Sometimes a player has their value artificially inflated simply due to who they play with (Tyler Bozak comes to mind). It’s fair to ask that question of Voracek, seeing as he plays the majority of his time with Claude Giroux.

Well, here’s how it’s broken down for Voracek over the last three seasons, from Puckalytics:

Voracek with Giroux (2274+ minutes): 2.88 Goals For per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 55.3 CorsiFor%

Voracek without Giroux (548+ minutes): 2.51 Goals For per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 50.1 CF%

Giroux without Voracek (825+ minutes): 1.67 Goals For per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 45.7 CF%

There is no doubt that Voracek does better with Giroux as his centre – who wouldn’t – but Giroux needs him just as badly on his wing, if not more. There are quality of competition differences when they play apart, and zone starts as well, but there’s no denying Voracek is very productive even without Giroux on the ice with him.

Voracek plays a game that lends to production. He’s not overly imposing, but he knows how to use his body to get in a position to make plays. He has soft hands, and something that separates the good ones from the great ones: vision. His mental acuity aligns with his physical gifts, and that makes for a dominant winger.

In fantasy, I think Voracek takes a small step back in production unless his goal rate shoots up (which is entirely possible, mind you). He set a career-high in the percentage of goals scored while he was on the ice that he managed a point on, and that’s something that tends to regress. I don’t think it’s a fall-off-the-cliff scenario for production, but I see him more of a 70-75 point player than the 80+ point player he was last year. If you own him in a keeper league, it’s hard to imagine his value getting any higher than it is now. Just a thought.

This is one of those signings where the team really had no other choice but to pay the player for what he is worth. The Flyers have one of the best wingers in the NHL locked up for a long time. Now, about that blue line…

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Another, smaller, signing was made, and that was the Montreal Canadiens locking up Alex Galchenyuk for the next two years. Yes, the bridge deal is not dead. At least not in Habs Land, where it worked out so well for them with P.K. Subban (sarcasm font implied).

In all, Galchenyuk has been far from inadequate for the Habs. He’s one of three players aged 20 or younger with at least 75 points total over the last two years (the other two being Nathan MacKinnon and Sean Monahan, taken from Hockey Reference). He also played hundreds of fewer minutes than either of them, and in that light, he looks a lot more favourable than may be initially thought: MacKinnon is over two points per 60 minutes, so he’s way ahead. However, Galchenyuk is at 1.62 and Monahan is at 1.56. I don’t think most fans would assume that over the last two years, Galchenyuk and Monahan are neck-and-neck in production efficiency (Galchenyuk is eight months older, admittedly).

I think his issue is being comfortable in the lineup. He’s bounced between the second and third line for most of the last two years, and both at the wing and at centre. I’m not a professional coach, but when acclimating a very young player to the NHL game, yo-yoing him between centre and wing doesn’t seem to be ideal (again, MacKinnon is the exception, not the rule). He should be a centre for this team, but they don’t seem to trust him as the second line centre yet, and they love David Desharnais.

This is a show-me contract, and if he performs like he’s capable, he’ll get paid two years down the road. With Tomas Plekanec having another year on his contract, it’s probably another year until Galchenyuk is a full-time centre. I don’t have a solid read here because I don’t trust the Montreal staff to consistently put him in a position to succeed. He’s a wizard with the puck, and has the vision to find his teammates consistently. We’ll see how the coaching staff decides to use him, because that will be a big factor in ultimately determining his value.

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When selecting a second goalie for fantasy leagues, there are two things that I like to look for:

  1. Is his team good (or at least not bad) defensively?
  2. Does he have a decent lock on the starting job?

This was helpful last year in finding second-tier, productive goalies like Roberto Luongo and Jaroslav Halak (though the Islanders may not have been as good defensively as I had hoped). Here are a few names I’m looking to target as my second goalie:

Roberto Luongo

For all the talk of the young up-and-comers, Florida was a pretty good team defensively last year in limiting dangerous scoring chances. If that team tightens up on the penalty kill, Luongo could push to be a top-12 goalie next year.

Brian Elliott

His hold on the starting job is tenuous with Jake Allen nipping at his heels, but Elliott, in my mind, is still their number-1 goalie. The Blues should be very good again next year, and as a whole, Elliott has been very good in net for them. I don’t think he will provide as good a return on investment in his likely draft spot as Luongo, though.

Craig Anderson

The Hamburglar is not taking his job away next year, and Anderson has shown flashes of excellence in recent memory. If he can stay healthy and get 55-60 starts, he can push for 25-30 wins with good ratios. 

18 Comments

  1. Hugo Twigg 2015-07-31 at 05:53

    “Yes, the bridge deal is not dead. At least not in Habs Land, where it worked out so well for them with P.K. Subban (sarcasm font implied).”

    Subban won a Norris on that bridge deal. Then was giving a new contract, he then proceeded to be a Vezina nominee.

    Please elaborate on how it worked so bad for the Habs please.

    • dan harris 2015-07-31 at 07:17

      MTL could have locked Suban up longterm for a lower cap hit had they not have done the bridge deal.  They essentially bet against him breaking out and when he did they had to pay him big on that longterm deal.

    • L Pat 2015-07-31 at 07:18

      Hugo:

      It could have worked out better for the habs had they not offered Subban a bridge contract, but instead, had just gone right for a long term deal. Who knows, instead of the bridge, maybe they sign him to a 6 year, 30 million dollar contract. He probably still goes on to win the Norris, and the Habs pay him 5 million a year versus 9 million a year. For a team, an extra 4 million to play with is pretty pretty nice.

      I’ll bet Galchenyuk’s bridge contract comes back to bite the habs as well. He’s the highest Habs draft pick since 1980, and the kid’s got talent. A couple years from now, he’s gettin’ paid!

      • Hugo Twigg 2015-07-31 at 12:43

        that bridge contract allowed Bergevin to acquire Vanek at the deadline, and no matter how he produced Vanek pushed everyone down on spot on the depth chart and that was a important piece of the Habs run to the Eastern Conference. I'd bet a good amount that Bergevin would do it again if he could.

      • Rob 2015-07-31 at 16:21

        Hugo you’ll hear what you want to hear. Multiple people have explained why the bridge deal ended up being the wrong play. I think it was a mistake in Subban’s case, but I think it might be more apt for Galchenyuk.

    • Michael Clifford 2015-07-31 at 14:55

      Because, if I recall correctly, his ask was around $5-million per season before the bridge deal. He ended up getting $9-million per season after the bridge deal. The Habs cost themselves $4-million in cap space per season because they weren't sure if he was worth $5-million AAV.  

      • Marc-Olivier Fortier 2015-07-31 at 17:09

        The bridge contract for Subban was the right thing to do. Hindsight is 20/20. With your logic every single team should automatically lock-up any potential superstar early in their carreers for long term 5M/y deals. For every Subban there are 20 Cam Barkers! Ask the New York Islanders if long term contracts are worth it (Think Yashin, Dipietro).

      • Hugo Twigg 2015-07-31 at 20:06

        If we play the semantic games, let's say Subban gets that 5M for 4 years. He'd be entering his final contract year this season, after proving he was a top 5 D in the NHL for the last 4 season. Do you think he signs for 8 years 9M/year? I'm thinking he's closer to 11M now that he's a bonafide superstar. What's a better deal for the Habs now?

         

        Like Marco-Olivier said, hindsight is 20/20.

         

  2. Hugo Twigg 2015-07-31 at 05:53

    Err Norris nominee. Sorry.

  3. whiteshado 2015-07-31 at 12:18

    Your stats about Giroux are misleading, though your point is well taken.  We all know Giroux is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, so Goals For per 60 minutes is a bit biased as a chosen comparison instead of Points For per 60.  Also, in order to really substantiate your claim, you should also be posting Giroux' Goals For per 60 minutes at five-on-five and his CF% with Voracek as well.  Even though Giroux' GF/60 without Voracek is 1.67 (lower than Voracek's with or without Giroux), who is to say that Giroux' GF/60 with Voracek is not even lower?  Just food for thought playing Devil's Advocate, though I totally agree with your assessment that these two complement each other well and likely produce better when together than when apart.

    • Michael Clifford 2015-07-31 at 14:50

      Sorry I should have been more clear: Goals For/60 refers to the team's goal rate with him/them on the ice, not his personal goal scoring rate. 

      • whiteshado 2015-07-31 at 17:26

        Oops, sorry, definitely makes more sense now.  Wow, those numbers are definitely food for thought then.  Either way, I guess you have to expect an $8 to $10 million per year cap hit for a point per game player in this NHL.  Can't wait to see what Stamkos gets in his next contract…

  4. Aaron 2015-07-31 at 15:07

    Great ramblings, love the little snippet on goalies at the end (although I disagree on Elliott haha).

    Anyone else having issues when they click on the player profiles?
    I get a bunch of error messages, some of the data shows up but some of it is garbled. This is the error:
    Strict Standards: Resource ID#5 used as offset, casting to integer (5) in /home/dobber/public_html/includes/sql_layer.php on line 725

    And then similar errors throughout the player profile page once it loads.

  5. Dobber 2015-07-31 at 15:39

    Player profile links is on the list of fixes – and moving up quickly! I think yesterday it was around 25th, and now it's around 5th

  6. Marc Edge 2015-07-31 at 17:21

    I would not have guessed that about Galchenyuk.

  7. Jason Dobry 2015-07-31 at 20:59
  8. richard lalonde 2015-08-02 at 04:17

    Michael,

    Yes, Marc Olivier and Hugo are indeed correct. To me it is less a question of hearing what you want to hear and more a question of thinking for oneself.

    What happened: Two years of bridge at $2.8 mill then 8 years at $9 mill = total: 10 years at $77.6 million

    vs

    Proposed by the disapproving crowd: Four years (as suggested above) at $5 mill then 6 years at $10 mill = total: 10 years at $80 million.

    So which is the better deal?

    Manifestly the better deal is one that underpays at the start, as then you can be a lot more sure that you're not tossing cash down a rabbit hole. It's a business, with  team and an owner to be responsible for, and it's not Monopoly money.

     

    But, then again, what do I know? I'm just a fan.

  9. richard lalonde 2015-08-02 at 04:18

    Michael,

    Yes, Marc Olivier and Hugo are indeed correct. To me it is less a question of hearing what you want to hear and more a question of thinking for oneself.

    What happened: Two years of bridge at $2.8 mill then 8 years at $9 mill = total: 10 years at $77.6 million

    vs

    Proposed by the disapproving crowd: Four years (as suggested above) at $5 mill then 6 years at $10 mill = total: 10 years at $80 million.

    So which is the better deal?

    Manifestly the better deal is one that underpays at the start, as then you can be a lot more sure that you're not tossing cash down a rabbit hole. It's a business, with  team and an owner to be responsible for, and it's not Monopoly money.

     

    But, then again, what do I know? I'm just a fan.

     

    rattus rattus

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