Ramblings: Leaf Luck, Matt Murray, Brooks Orpik and more (May 02)

Dobber

2016-05-01

Ramblings: Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Leafs. Also – Matt Murray, Brooks Orpik and more

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Last call! Details on the DobberHockey Hockey Pool winners and prizes – find out here if you won, and how to claim your prize. Fourteen out of the 20 winners have reached out to me and claimed prizes – tell your friends to check this link if they finished near the Top 20! One jersey still unclaimed, among the six unclaimed prizes. Also unclaimed – one $50 credit with Draft Kings, two of my own Ultimate Fantasy Packs, and two Fantasy Hockey Geek subscriptions…I have a list of names, but nothing further in terms of user names or mailing addresses, etc. Contact me – Shayne, Mark, Barry, Jono, Peter or Brett!

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Screw the Sunday games, we’ll get to that later. Right now I want to discuss some Auston Matthews!

The Toronto Maple Leafs Game Plan is actually proceeding as they hoped. And entering the best free agent market I’ve ever seen (or ever will see), while in the best cap position in the entire league – everything is coming up Milhouse.

 

So much depends on who they sign in the summer. I have to think that Toronto will be mostly successful with any free agent they go after. Two of – Stamkos, Okposo, Yandle, Boedker, Ladd, Lucic, Hamhuis, Backes, Eriksson. Plus one of the lesser free agents, such as Hudler, Purcell, Perron, Goligoski, Nielsen. Toronto can outbid any other team, they just can’t get too stupid about it. Signing Eric Staal at the price he’ll require, is an example of “stupid”.

Success in that area and assuming a centerman is brought in would mean Matthews will start his career as a winger. They’ll call his line the second line but by Christmas it will be clear that it’s actually the first line. His offensive impact early on I liken to John Tavares. Remember – Tavares had just 54 points as a rookie and I actually had to defend him from Matt Duchene owners who actually felt that Duchene was the better fantasy own after just that one season. After 54 points Tavares had 67 and then 81. That’s the progress I see in Matthews. But realistically we shouldn’t even speculate on something like this until we have a better idea as to what the Leafs’ roster will look like.

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Brian Elliott is starting to show some chinks in his armour. Not that he’s playing poorly and is suddenly giving up a ton of goals. Not at all. No, I mean that when the game is on the line in the final minutes, he’s no longer money in the bank. It will make this series interesting, instead of the cakewalk that I thought it could be.

Elliott’s SV% is 0.930 in the postseason. In the regular season? It was also 0.930. But as great as that is for the season, in the playoffs that number generally increases. Here are the top SV% this postseason with goalies who have played at least five games:

Goalie

GP

SV%

Braden Holtby

8

0.957

Frederik Andersen

5

0.947

Matthew Murray

5

0.939

Thomas Greiss

8

0.937

Roberto Luongo

6

0.934

Ben Bishop

7

0.933

Brian Elliott

9

0.93

Martin Jones

6

0.917

Pekka Rinne

8

0.915

Corey Crawford

7

0.907

Kari Lehtonen

6

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0.906

Jonathan Quick

5

0.886

 

This is why Dallas won’t win the Cup even if they do get by the Blues. And kudos to Greiss for posting the fourth best SV% in the league. My thoughts on Murray– I’ll circle back to him.

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Cody Eakin assisted on three goals Sunday. He has seven points in eight playoff games so far and in his career he has 12 in 14. I had him noted as a sleeper pick in my playoff draft list – if I adjust that list for Dallas playing eight games, the projection for Eakin was five points.

Robby Fabbri with two assists and he now has seven points in nine playoff games. He was hot going into the postseason with 11 in 14 games.

Alex Goligoski is on a four-game point streak. His career playoff numbers are impressive – 19 points in 29 games. After the overtime goal Sunday, Goligoski looked injured. Kind of limping as he left the ice with his team. We may hear more about that prior to Game 3…

Patrick Eaves is still out of the Dallas lineup (shocker!) with an LBI. Here were the line combinations without him:

#1 24.5% FAKSA,RADEK – HEMSKY,ALES – ROUSSEL,ANTOINE

#2 22.7% BENN,JAMIE – EAKIN,CODY – SHARP,PATRICK

#3 13.5% JANMARK,MATTIAS – NICHUSHKIN,VALERI – SPEZZA,JASON

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Marc-Edouard Vlasic seems to be back to his old self after a few games of getting his timing back. His ice time tops the Sharks and he’s shooting the puck more.

Joe Pavelski had three points in the San Jose win. He now has 10 in seven games. Meanwhile Joe Thornton has just five points, including two on Sunday.

The 39 shots that Martin Jones faced on Sunday were the most he’s seen since March 7th.

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Mike Ribeiro has just one assist in the playoffs. He has just four points in his last 24 games. Clutch!

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Brooks Orpik has been suspended for three playoff games for this:

Olli Maatta is probably going to miss Game 3 and my guess is that he’ll be out for this series unless it goes to a Game 7.

So who would you put in to replace Maatta? Justin Schultz or Derrick Pouliot?

Here’s the latest on MA Fleury. He’s feeling better and I get the sense that he’ll be medically cleared to return soon. As in – if they need him I think he could play in Game 6. But it sounds like coach Mike Sullivan will do the right thing here and let Matt Murray take them to the third round. And if he does that, why take him out? Keep riding him! Murray is having a great postseason. As good as Fleury has been this year and even with the Stanley Cup ring that he wears, you ride the hot hand. If Murray puts out Washington and gets to keep playing, what if he wins a Cup? But alas, I think with the start of a new round, the Penguins will go back to Fleury.

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My quick two cents on Bruce Boudreau – he didn’t deserve to be fired. Game sevens are too random. Do you really think it’s because the coach is a little jittery and it rubs off on the players? Or that he’s panicking and making some panic moves during the big game? Really? If you honestly think that, then just have Boudreau coach your team all season and into the playoffs, and then send him home for Game 7 and have a coach step in for a one-off. Anyway. Ridiculous. Game sevens are random and you can just as easily win four in a row after losing four in a row. It was a bad move.

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With all due respect to Kevin Leblanc, who has been a great Saturday prospects writer for DobberHockey this past season and has really turned that column into a steady “must read” weekly piece – but I disagree with two of his buy-low player suggestions in Saturday’s article. My two cents – Oscar Lindberg is a checker with minimal upside. I stated here on a few October and November occasions that I was shocked at how well he was doing. When he cooled off and started getting scratched, all was right in my world. Things were back to normal.

And the other guy was Ben Hutton. I don’t think highly of his upside at all and if the Canucks can ever get a decent puck-mover for their blue line, Hutton will just be another Grant Clitsome. Fills in when needed. That being said, I do acknowledge that it’s possible that Leblanc is right. It’s certainly not laughable. After all – maybe the Canucks don’t get a defenseman this summer. And maybe Lindberg finds the magic he had last October. But I personally have little faith in it.

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Not only do the Leafs get Matthews (if they want him), but the highway robbery they pulled off at the deadline to get Connor Carrick is already paying dividends. He leads the AHL in playoff scoring with seven points in three games for the Marlies. He’s a defenseman, remember.

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The AHL second round matchups are set:

Hershey Bears (Washington) vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Pittsburgh)

Toronto Marlies (Toronto) vs. Albany Devils (New Jersey)

Lake Erie Monsters (Columbus) vs. Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit)

Ontario Reign (Los Angeles) vs. San Diego Gulls (Anaheim)

So the Caps and Penguins play each other in both the NHL and the AHL…

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Fifty seconds that changed the course of Maple Leafs’ history…

 

 

14 Comments

  1. finminer 2016-05-02 at 07:09

    I’m not sold on Elliott’s magic. I watched every minute of the Chicago series and in the first four games, every shot the Hawks took was right into Elliott’s midsection. They weren’t elevating the puck at all. I do give credit to the Blues’ stifling defense, but that only means Elliott wasn’t making fantastic stops on danger zone shots, certainly not like Crawford was (which is where the lack of defensive depth often showed). It is not surprising to me that Dallas is having better luck against him. Nevertheless, the Blues definitely look strong enough to win it all. They have versatility and depth and everything is clicking for them right now.

    • Alex Foltz 2016-05-02 at 11:01

      As a Blues fan, I can say with certainty Elliot’s last minute struggles have gone on for a long time. If the Blues have a 1 goal lead late, I don’t feel confident at all, especially against potent offensive teams like you face in the playoffs.

  2. Striker 2016-05-02 at 09:23

    How can Toronto be in the best cap position in the entire league? I’d say their are at least 6 other teams far better positioned against the cap minimum.

    Players can’t be put on LTIR until after you submit your 23 man roster the night before opening day. That mean’s Horton, Robidas, Lupul, etc all count against the cap currently leaving Toronto with about 7 players to sign or promote & about 13 million in cap space to do so. Now as soon as the clock roles over to opening day they can designate those players potentially if injured but even in the summer tagging only allows you to exceed the cap by 10%.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-02 at 09:32

      It’s genius. The Horton and Robidas situations are assets, not liabilities. To have the ‘choice’ of using that money to reach a cap floor or not, no other team has. They can go over the cap until opening day, up until a percentage.
      Furthermore, the term “cap situation” is not just for next year. Nay, it’s forever. How many salaries tie them up in 2017? 2018? Genius. Bar none, the Leafs have the best cap situation in the entire league and frankly it’s not even close.
      Lupul is a part of their top nine next year.

      • Striker 2016-05-02 at 09:52

        Are you a leafs fan? Ha-ha!

        Don’t get me wrong. I love what the Leafs are doing but not buying the best cap situation argument. We’ll just agree to disagree.

        This year it’s tight. If the do sign Stamkos that’s 10 or 11 million out of that space. Now it’s getting tight for the 2016-17 season to fluch out the roster. Add a player like Backes or Okposo & they have no cap space left to resign anyone else.

        Again there are more than 1/2 a dozen teams that have better short & long term cap situations should they choose to spend the monies.

        I do agree with you on Lupul. Frankly he should have gotten a better line placement last season. Expansion casualty I assume base don how Toronto’s protectors are shaping up.

        Teams can only exceed the cap by 10% in the off season or when signing players; tagging, long term.

        • Dobber Sports 2016-05-02 at 09:59

          I think I’m a Leafs fan, though I find that if they play Pittsburgh and the Pens score I cheer a lot more. So I guess I’m not a ‘true die-hard’.
          What I’m a big fan of though is a proper rebuild. I love watching the pieces fall into place over five or six years. And now with the cap slant, that part interests me as well

    • Stu Campaigne 2016-05-02 at 12:14

      Of those six, how many are budget teams? How many would spend to the cap?

      • Striker 2016-05-02 at 14:03

        Stu. That’s a very valid point & I believe in 1 of the threads I said if so inclined. Several of those teams have internal caps but there are numerous others that are facing similar scenario’s to Toronto where the cap hits really open up over the next few seasons.

        I also think expansion will open up teams cap hits as they will all be losing at least 1 player if not 2. Factor in the expansion revenue each team is collecting & some of them might be willing to spend some if not all those extra monies on payroll.

        Don’t get me wrong. I love what Toronto is doing & how they are structured moving forward I’m just not buying there positioned the best. That’s a pretty bold statement that I’m not buying.

        • Stu Campaigne 2016-05-02 at 22:35

          With the youth coming up, and the number of players they will have on ELCs, the next few seasons should be easy to manage, cap-wise. What frightens me with the Leafs, no matter the management team, is the habit of signing middling players to long-term deals that will hamstring the team when the aforementioned youth looks for a payday.
          I say offer smart, short contracts to possession-driven players with leadership traits. When the kids grow up, just let them slide off the payroll.

  3. Striker 2016-05-02 at 09:36

    Buying out Cowen will free up almost 4 million in cap space. In buy out he provides a 650K credit & was due to hit the cap at 3.1 so 3.75 saved there but that still only leaves about 16 million until the LTIR savings are made available opening day. 16 million baring trades isn’t getting 2 of those free agents never mind 3 signed on July 1st & then still needing to sign or promote 3 players to get to the 23 man roster limit.

    I’m not saying it can’t be done. Toronto could make a trade or 2 as soon as the trade market fully opens to free up space & make it happen but my issues is simple. They aren’t in the best cap situation not even close really.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-02 at 09:56

      You haven’t swayed me even 1%. If the Leafs cap situation is ranked 100/100, then second best cap situation is 45/100. Just not even close, and I’ll still firmly believe this on my death bed ;) A discussion on it is the same, to me, as a discussion about which player is better: Matt Cullen or Sidney Crosby.
      The flexibility with their cap situation is mind-boggling. In 2017 more than half their roster could be gone. The only players signed after 2018 are Rielly, Kadri, Gardiner – exactly what you want. The ability to use the LTIR – or not – is nice. And they can sign two free agents for seven or eight years if they so choose. Only about five or six teams can say the same

  4. Kevsh 2016-05-02 at 09:43

    Is it possible the real reason Beadreau was fired was for losing another series Anaheim should have won, not just another game 7?

    As for Matthews, I would be shocked if he plays anywhere but center next season. If he’s the future of this franchise, he has to play his natural position from day 1, period.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-02 at 09:48

      If Toronto signs Stamkos, I think Matthews is on the wing for two years – similar to Tyler Seguin in Boston. He’ll be a center, just not right away if there is a proven option at C already

  5. Striker 2016-05-02 at 09:45

    4 years of going into game 6 of the playoffs leading 3-2. Anaheim loses game 6 on the road & game 7 at home in all 4 years. Granted Boudreau isn’t solely to blame but he made 2 decisions in this run that didn’t help & had he started Andersen in game 1 & ran with him Anaheim would have gotten by Nashville in 5, 6 tops.

    Also sitting Theodore & dressing Stoner who returned from injury in game 7 made zero sense. On Nashville’s 1st goal Wilson made Despres & Stoner look weak if not down right stupid for letting him slip thru splitting the D for the 1st goal. Stoner & Despres barley played after that & rightfully so.

    Those 2 decisions were a significant factor in Anaheim not advancing & had Boudreau not made either we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Someone had to pay the price & Boudreau’s time was up. 4 years of playoff failure with this roster is a serious concern & time to give another coach a chance to see if he can put it together. With Getzlaf, Perry & Kesler all aging the clock is ticking & this window is closing, 3 more years, possible 1 or 2 more after that.

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