Ramblings: Looking at UFAs and Being George McPhee (June 20)

Neil Parker

2017-06-20

George McPhee - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Here is a quick run through four upcoming unrestricted free agents.

 

Kevin Shattenkirk

 

Things obviously didn't go as planned in the playoffs for Washington, and Shattenkirk wasn't a perfect fit with the Capitals. However, he was still a solid fantasy asset with 14 points through the final 19 games of the regular season and then another six points in the playoffs. He scored at an 82-game pace of 51.2 points in his short time with the Capitals, after all.

Where he signs will have a significant impact on Shattenkirk's upcoming fantasy value, but his status as an elite power-play contributor accompanies him wherever he lands. Over the past three seasons, Shattenkirk's 7.3 points per 60 minutes with the man advantage tops all defenseman with at least 50 minutes of power-play time. To put it in perspective, he's logged 641:17 of power-play time during that stretch, and Jamie McBain's 5.81 points per hour rank second, and McBain played just 92:52 up a man.

Shattenkirk enters his age-28 season with a solid scoring track record and projects to have another high-end offensive season.

 

 

T.J. Oshie

 

Oshie posted a league-high 26.1 shooting percentage at five-on-five among all forwards with at least 750 minutes last season. His 33 goals were also a career high.

Obviously, his fantasy stock is up in the air until he inks a new contract, but expecting Oshie to repeat last season's numbers will probably prove ill-advised. Remember, too, the winger was limited to just 68 games, so his 0.49 goals and 0.82 points were also both career highs.

Oshie definitely has the potential to be a rock-solid asset again in 2017-18, but chasing career years is a fantasy no-no. Plus, there could be a significant decline in his shooting percentage. Remember, too, that from 2011-12 through 2015-16, Oshie posted a 10.3 five-on-five shooting percentage. Statistical correction could take a modest chunk out of his fantasy value next season. 

 

 

Alexander Radulov

 

Posting 18 goals and 54 points was a bit of a letdown for Radulov last season. Some probably expected less from him, but he is clearly capable of posting 25 goals and 60 points. Unfortunately, he really faded midseason and posted just five goals and 16 points during a 30-game stretch from January 12 through March 25.

However, during that cold stretch, Montreal's 2.08 goals per 60 minutes was the third-lowest total in the league. Radulov's slump was likely more tied to the Canadiens' scoring woes than his own play. It was also encouraging to see him take his game to another level in the postseason with two goals and five assists through six playoff games.

Radulov stands to have another solid season in Montreal, but if he relocates to a more prolific offense, he could easily add a handful of goals and up to a dozen more points up next year.

 

 

Martin Hanzal

 

Hanzal will almost certainly remain a better real-world player than fantasy asset, and it will be interesting to see what his intentions are during free agency. He could opt to chase a championship and sign with a contender at a bit of a discount, or the 30-year-old Czech could try to ink a big deal as a top-six center.

He's best suited to play a shut-down role against the opposition's top players, but Hanzal does own the offensive ability and acumen to be a serviceable No. 2 center that is deployed similarly to Ryan Kesler. However, it's worth reinforcing that Hanzal has never topped 20 goals or registered 45 points through 10 years in the league. He's also played 70 games just four times, and only once in the past seven years.

Hanzal's fantasy stock is pretty capped to begin with because of the depth at the center position. Additionally, if he does indeed project to be the third-line center for a team, he's probably off the radar outside of deep settings.

 

 

***

 

The NHL salary cap and salary floor have been established at $75 million and $55.4 million, respectively.

Right now, the Blackhawks are the only team in real cap trouble. The Capitals have just 11 players under contract right now and are already at $50 million, and have championship ambitions, though. Minnesota also has to re-up with Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter before filling out its roster, so the Wild won't have a lot of wiggle room already being at $61 million.

 

***

 

Since everyone is doing it, I'm putting together my Vegas Roster.

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Here are a couple notes:

I'm running on the assumptions that these particular players won't be selected because trades have already been worked out: Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, Josh Anderson, Jack Johnson, Joonas Korpisalo, Petr Mrazek, Jason Demers, Matt Dumba, Marco Scandella, Eric Staal, Calvin de Haan, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey and Jordan Weal.

These selections are focused on assembling the most assets for the long haul as possible, and not building the best roster for the 2017-18 season.

This is a fun exercise of playing armchair general manager, and not an attempt to accurately predict what Las Vegas is going to do.

 

 

A few takeaways:

James Neal, Jonathan Marchessault, Lee Stempniak, David Perron, Brayden McNabb and Antti Raanta are all unrestricted free agents following the 2017-18 season and will be prime candidates to be dealt at the trade deadline for more assets. There's also potential for someone to be flipped immediately.

Swinging for the fences with guys like Ryan Strome, Marko Dano, Teemu Pulkkinen, Brendan Leipsic, Nicolas Kerdiles and Charles Hudon is the move. They're all in the heart of their prime now and if two of them hit as legitimate top-six scorers, it has to be viewed as a success. They're all cheap and will be under team control for awhile, too.

The Golden Knights need some veteran leadership. Troy Brouwer would be a potential captain, selecting Mike Cammalleri's hefty salary might result in another asset accompanying him from New Jersey, and both Zach Bogosian and Brenden Dillon are solid defensemen.

There has been a lot of talk about Jake Dotchin, however, chasing the upside and skating ability of Slater Koekkoek has more appeal to me. Similarly, Anton Rodin can score, whereas Brendan Gaunce has shown little offensive potential at the NHL level and has skating shortcomings. Rodin could be the better trade chip, too.

The side deals are unknown, so Las Vegas' roster could look completely different, and the players we expect to stick with their teams despite being left available might be way off the mark. Vancouver could have a side deal in place to ensure the Golden Knights don't puck Gaunce. We're going to have to wait and see.

 

It sure is fun to discuss, though.

 

***

 

Here are a number of other Expansion Draft related readings if you're interested in diving deeper.

 

Hayden Soboleski's Prospect Ramblings with an Expansion Draft focus

Scott Cullen's breakdown at TSN

Dimitri Filipovic's Expansion Mock Draft at Sportsnet

Pete Jensen's Expansion Mock Draft at NHL.com

 

***

 

Thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

 

 

26 Comments

  1. Ian Sharp 2017-06-20 at 07:20

    Thanks for the ramblings first off. Gotta believe that some of the other GM’s must have compromising pictures of you as you are doing many of them huge favors. Broewer, Bogo, Perron are albatross contracts for their teams as well as a litany of UFA’s that will get you next to nothing in a trade. Reminded me of the rumor that LA asked LV to take Gaborik with no compensation given.

    Cheers.

    • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 09:53

      It’s fine to throw shade, but why not add something helpful to the discussion?
      Bogosian is a top-four defenseman. He’s still rounding into who he is at the NHL level because of all the injuries that hindered his development. But posting a 3.0 Corsi For relative highlights his competence. Is he over priced? Maybe, but you need someone to actually play the game, and he’s capable. Plus, who else are you taking from Buffalo?
      Perron and Brouwer are other examples of guys who are professionals that can move up and down the lineup and insulate younger players.
      It’s easy to play armchair GM, but at the same time, this team is actually going to have to suit up for 82 games, and a veteran presence is needed to help younger players ease their way into the league.

      • Ian Sharp 2017-06-20 at 11:07

        I wasn’t trying to be overly serious and I will try to add something to the the discussion. For goalies MAF (deal in place apparently), Grubauer, Mrazek (even with his rumored attitude problem), Ullmark and possibly Campbell (LA’s list sucks) and maybe Pickard. I would also pick Carrier ahead of Bogo. Also Yakupov, Paarjarvi and Jaskin ahead of Perron. Stone or anyone on a two way rather than Broewer. Having older vets “insulate” younger players doesn’t require they come with a bad contract. Older doesn’t mean wiser. Right now I would have Methot be the captain of Vegas (if picked) with Shipachyov and MAF be the Assistants. Just my two cents.

        • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 11:31

          Stone is a UFA, so I doubt he’s in the mix. Why sign with an expansion team when you could land on a contender or potentially strike it rich? I agree with the three you mention from the Blues, but if they can’t get it together with St. Louis (or Edmonton) despite ample opportunities, why would it suddenly click on a potential basement dweller?
          I like the idea of stock piling goalies.
          Thanks, Ian.

          • MarkRM16 2017-06-20 at 16:04

            Stone is one of the best UFA D this year. New Jersey and Detroit could sure use him and so could Edmonton given Sekera’s LTI. I’d prefer him to Russell. He’s good, but overpaid – he’s a $2M D max.

    • Striker 2017-06-20 at 10:59

      Vegas needs leaders with character & specific traits to help mentor this team. Brouwer is a very solid hard working player & the best player available from Calgary. His contract isn’t onerous & Vegas does have to hit the cap floor of 55.4 million as stated in latest rules released. Perron is the best player available from StL although there is a shortage of C’s so perhaps they take Lehtera if motivated by StL to do so. Perron plays a decent 2 way game & is a willing hitter. He’s the best of a bad lot available in StL & only has 1 year remaining. He can play a 1st or 2nd line scoring role on either wing. I don’t take Bogo either but Ullmark.

      • Ian Sharp 2017-06-20 at 11:26

        I see some of your points. Perron is not overly young, overpaid for his position and Yakupov or Paarjarvi would be better selections even though they might be boom or bust. I agree with Ullmark or even Carrier. Bogo’s contract is too long and pricey. The bottom floor of salary isn’t a concern as they will do the ARZ and take on bad contracts over the summer for picks is future drafts. I have run the TSN simulator alot and its never under the floor. CGY……maybe you are right but don’t see a fit for what they are trying to do. Shipachyov and dadonov will be top six as well as some others that are exposed. Having him in the bottom six at that salary is a waste IMO. I would grab someone on a two way like Shinkaruk. Cheers.

  2. Striker 2017-06-20 at 09:11

    What is Vegas going to do for AHL goalies? I have them selecting Altschuller from Carolina & Ullmark from Buffalo both waiver exempt so they can be sent down when it’s time to submit Vegas’s 23 man roster to start the year. My other goalies are MAF, Grubauer & Pickard; traded soon following.

    The rest of my list is similiar although I have Vegas selecting more veteran Dman than you do as their trade value is solid & their return in trade at some point will be solid & all have term on their contracts so tradable years into the future Emelin. Lovejoy, Emelin, Sbisa & Methot.

    • Striker 2017-06-20 at 09:12

      supposed to say but Emelin

      • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 09:42

        I think they swing for the fences with some of those youngsters on the blue line. Signing undrafted CHL and NCAA talents to fill out the minor ranks at all positions is one way to fill out the depth chart.

        • Striker 2017-06-20 at 10:39

          My expansion draft selection roster I posted the other day primarily leaned to youth but as always based on today as opposed to what side deals may be worked out but I didn’t have anh, Clb or Nas reflected in it.

          My D selections were, C.Miller, TvR, Reinhart, Dumba; I’m not passing on this player, unless the compensation to do so is extreme; Scandella, a 1st round pick & 1 of the stud prospects not Eriksson-Ek or Kaprisov but Kunin, Greenway or Tuch, Lovejoy, de Haan; certainly not passing on him or Nelson for solely a 1st, Methot, Dhillon, Dotchin, & Sbisa. That’s 10 of a required 9. I then trade 2 as all have waiver rights. Someone has to mentor & help all these young D develop that’s 1 or 2 of Methot, Lovejoy or Sbisa.

          • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 10:42

            I think Minnesota should take its medicine and just let someone go to Vegas and not sell the farm to keep a player or two. It’ll be super interesting.

          • Striker 2017-06-20 at 11:05

            I think Vegas should swing for the fences & go all in to not only win now but moving forward. I only make side deals if what I’m being paid exceeds what I can select. I’m not passing on Dumba unless ridiculous compensation is being paid.

            If rumors are to be believed & McPhee is taking a 1st & Grabovsky & Kulemin to pass on Nelson or de Haan he deserves to be fired now. That will be worse than his biggest oops in his GM career. Trading Forsberg for Erat.

            Never mind the selection I would make from NYI, if you want me to take those 2 players the cost is a 1st. Then I’m still making my selection. Depending upon what other deals I have in place that’s either Nelson; big #2 C still developing, or de Haan; would make a solid partner for Dumba on a future #1 pairing. Neither are any where near fully developed at the NHL level, both need 2 more full seasons to become the players they will be in the NHL when fully developed. in or around 400 NHL regular season games played.

    • Dobber 2017-06-20 at 09:48

      I wouldn’t draft goalies just for the AHL. Take best asset for each team. My mock has six goalies taken and none were named Fleury or Altshuller.
      October is a long way away and if you don’t have AHL goalies by then, it’s easy to sign journeymen.

      • Striker 2017-06-20 at 10:31

        I have the 2 goalies as the best players available from Carolina & Buffalo respectively as well considering all the dynamics in play. I certainly take them before Stempniak or Bogosian. I like Bogosian just not at 5+ mil per for 3 more years & he’s injury prone.

  3. Marc-Olivier Fortier 2017-06-20 at 09:30

    Why is no one forecasting Vegas taking Mrazek? They would have probably the best tandem in the league with Fleury

    • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 09:42

      If he is actually available, he’s the right pick for the Golden Knights. I just suspect that there is a side deal in place, as noted in the analysis.

      • MarkRM16 2017-06-20 at 15:46

        The Wings are loaded with young, cheap potential 1st and 2nd liners. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mrazek returned to Detroit in exchange for one of them (Bertuzzi? Mantha?). They need to sacrifice a few to restock their terrible blueline.
        Were he to stick with LV and they also picked Fleury, that’s be an impressive duo.

    • Dobber 2017-06-20 at 09:47

      FWIW I have them taking Mrazek. But Parker is right – a side deal is probably in place. But I have them with Mrazek and not Fleury

      • Luke P 2017-06-20 at 10:11

        A Mrazek side deal doesn’t make sense to me. If they really wanted to keep Mrazek, why not expose Howard? A side deal to protect a 33 year old goaltender on the downside of his career would seem much cheaper, no? Besides, if you had a choice between MAF, who just showed well in the playoffs and is an ACE personality, or Howard, who on Earth would choose Howard? On top of that, Holland has said that he has no interest in side deals with Vegas. Smokescreen perhaps, but nothing here suggests Mrazek is safe.

        • Dobber 2017-06-20 at 10:15

          Great point, actually. Convinced me of no side deal. So yeah, I’d take Mrazek for sure

        • Neil Parker 2017-06-20 at 10:28

          Good call. Poor Red Wings.

      • Striker 2017-06-20 at 10:52

        If Vegas isn’t taking MAF from Pit who are they taking?

        I have MAF + going to Vegas. A solid pick, possibly even a 1st but something. I assume this deal was structured back in February so Pit could retain MAF for their cup run. Pit not wanting to be confronted with potentially having to buy him out this summer.

    • Striker 2017-06-20 at 10:48

      My favorite goalie available is Grubauer, I have him ahead of everyone available. I assume MAF will be the starter, Grubauer the future #1, MAF being traded at some point before his contract expires. I hadn’t expected Mrazek to be exposed & you could argue now his selection would allow Vegas to take Schultz from Was as opposed to Grubauer. That said I think Vegas selects both, as Mrazek is the best player now exposed by Detroit. Vegas could keep 3 goals in the NHL MAF, Grubauer & Mrazek until a team loses their starter for an extended period or simply trade 1 post expansion.

      Might their also be trade value in Kronwall or Eriksson, might another team have struck a deal with Vegas to select 1 of them & pay for them? Not saying there is just curious.

      The difficult part is we have no idea if teams made deals with vegas before they even put in their protected lists & even though exposed ala Anh they aren’t being selected. If Anh has paid Vegas a 1st + a D prospect as is being reported 1 of Thedore, Montour or Larsson is moving.

  4. mick 2017-06-20 at 13:11

    there is a pretty solid rumor that NYI is giving up a first for Vegas to take Kulemin – rules out strome doesn’t it?

  5. Hawkology 2017-06-20 at 17:23

    Neal, James
    Perron, David
    Nelson, Brock
    Smith-Pelly, Devante
    Brown, J.T.
    Karlsson, William
    Rychel, Kerby
    Dano, Marko
    Marchessault, Jonathan
    Khaira, Jujhar
    Hudon, Charles
    Mersch, Michael
    Gaunce, Brendan
    Weal, Jordan
    Goodrow, Barclay
    Burmistrov, Alexander
    Lindberg, Oscar
    Grigorenko, Mikhail

    Bogosian, Zach
    Methot, Marc
    Vatanen, Sami
    Dumba, Matt
    Miller, Colin
    Dahlbeck, Klas
    Van Riemsdyk, Trevor
    Oleksiak, Jamie
    Stone, Michael

    Fleury, Marc-Andre
    Mrazek, Petr
    Grubauer, Philipp

    1st: J.A.M – Nelson – Neal
    2nd: Perron – Burmistrov – Dano
    3rd: Karlsson – Lindberg – Grigorenko
    4th: Goodrow – Brown – Smith-Pelly

    1st: Methot – Vatanen
    2nd: TVR – Dumba
    3rd Stone/Miller – Bogo

    Fluery
    Mrazek
    Grubs

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