Ramblings: Looking back at Round 1, Looking ahead to Round 2 (April 25)

Neil Parker

2017-04-25

Charlie McAvoy - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Looking back at Round 1 and ahead to Round 2, Tom Wilson, Andre Burakovsky, Pekka Rinne, Juuse Saros, Charlie McAvoy, rookie defensemen and more …

 

In a series of tweets, Bob McKenzie outlined the situation for New Jersey and Ilya Kovalchuk returning to the NHL. In short, Kovalchuk has to sign with New Jersey before he would be eligible to be traded. He couldn't be traded and then sign with another team.

New Jersey should absolutely move him for an asset. It would be interesting to see what the Devils could fetch for Kovalchuk, but there aren't many locations where I'd be excited about his fantasy value. He just turned 34 and hasn't played in the NHL for four years.

Here are the age-34 players and older that have scored 25 goals since Kovalchuk bolted to Russia. Jarome Iginla, Marian Hossa and Patrick Marleau are the only players to hit the mark more than once. 53 players had 20 goals, 50 points and 185 shots last year, which would be the benchmarks Kovalchuk would probably meet/approach. It's hardly exclusive company, so his name value will likely drive the price up too high. However, landing in the right lineup might drive his production up, too.

It's going to be an interesting offseason storyline, but I see more Jimmy Vesey than Alexander Radulov when we look back next spring.

 

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Nothing is worse than the fixed playoff bracket and current NHL divisional seeding. As a result, we have this situation:

 

It's fine to have eight teams from each conference make the dance, but it might be better if the top 16 overall made it, and No. 1 faced No. 16. But it absolutely would be better if the seeds were reshuffled each round. The set bracket is flawed. Washington should be playing Ottawa with Pittsburgh and the Rangers the other Round 2 matchup in the East. The West would (should) have Anaheim-Nashville and Edmonton-St. Louis matchups.

 

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With the first round in the rearview mirror, here are a few nuggets and takeaways that might have made a lasting fantasy impact.

 

Washington might have wingers on the way out, and while both T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams could return, they could also opt to walk. The obviously candidate to climb the depth chart is Andre Burakovsky.

However, the skill and rambunctiousness Tom Wilson brings might be a better fit. Wilson is skilled, and he's an annoyance to play against. If he slides into a more offensive role there is potential for him to be a Brad Marchand-type asset. Not the Marchand we've seen the past two years, but similar to the player that was a modest cross-category contributor from 2010-11 through 2014-15.

Wilson enters his age-23 season next year, and with a more significant role, he could easily take a step forward offensively. There is a chance that he's consistently deployed down the depth chart and continues his agitators role, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Capitals brass wanted to see if Wilson can step up his game. He was a first-round pick and has bided his time, after all.

 

Pekka Rinne had an up-and-down regular season, and has looked ready to fall off completely numerous times over the past few years. However, his Round 1 showing likely locks him in for another 60 starts next year. His $7 million salary seconds the motion.

There is nothing more Juuse Saros dynasty owners want than a Rinne blowup, but it appears the elder statesman is probably pretty secure as the No. 1. It makes sense to start Saros a little more next season, but it'll likely be difficult to find him anything more than 24 to 28 starts without a Rinne injury.

There are probably a wide range of outcomes for Nashville next year, but the Predators do a lot of things right, including limit high-danger chances and play a sound possession game. That's a huge help to a goalie's fantasy value, so Rinne's likely to play well enough to hold off Saros. The younger Finn looks the part of a solid No. 1, though, so his time should come.

 

Charlie McAvoy had an excellent opening series. He had no professional experience and averaged 26:12 of ice time per game with a 52.05 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. That's impressive.

However, handing him next year's Calder Trophy is a little premature, and it isn't out of the question that he isn't even fantasy relevant in shallow settings next season. For starters, Torey Krug should resume quarterback duty on the No. 1 power-play unit, and a healthy blue line should keep him closer to 20 or 22 minutes than 25 or 26.

Additionally, the rigors of an entire NHL season will take a toll. It's rare that an NCAA product doesn't slow down in the second half of their debut season. Dylan Larkin and Zach Werenski stand as recent reminders. It's pretty rare for a rookie defenseman to return a full season of fantasy value, too.

 

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The fact that Joe Thornton played through a torn MCL and ACL is pretty incredible. While the severity of the tears obviously weren't to the point he couldn't skate and or play, putting off surgery to battle it out to make another cup run is something else. While this is probably a routine and minor surgery for most players, Thronton's turns 38 in July.

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Make sure to check out the rising prospects from the 2017 draft class at Dobber Prospects.

 

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Earlier in the discussion on Charlie McAvoy, I mentioned how rare it was for rookie defensemen to have strong fantasy showings. Over the past four years, only three rookies 22 or younger have posted 35 points, and just six have hit the 30-point mark.

 

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Here is a stat pack and quick-hit preview of the Round 2 matchups.


It's difficult to poke holes in either club, or find any statistical mismatches. Pittsburgh's Corsi For percentage and shot disparity stands out, but the Penguins also still generated all kinds of scoring chances and a few more than Columbus, and not all shots are created equally. The power play has only improved with Evgeni Malkin, so Washington staying out of the box will be important.

The Capitals looked dominant for stretches during Round 1, and also showed well with the man advantage. Washington has also been a better possession team than Pittsburgh all season, and the Caps have home-ice advantage, which could be a factor with a 34-8-2 record at the Verizon Center this season.

However, we know that this is a battle that will probably turn into one of the better series of the playoffs. The margin of error will be small.

 


The obvious questions in this series are how does Ottawa stack up against a team with four capable lines, and how is New York going to slow down Erik Karlsson. Boston was depleted with injuries, and the Senators still generated just 8.55 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. The Rangers might be able to limit Karlsson, but he's going to have a major impact.

New York continues to allow oodles of high-danger chances, but Henrik Lundqvist stepped up his game with a .947 save percentage in Round 1. That level of play can win a series. Additionally, if the New York power play finds a groove, Ottawa could be in trouble.

It's probably too simplistic to say this series will come down to who is better between Karlsson and Lundqvist, but neither team is going to Round 3 without a huge showing from their most important player.

 

A lot went right for Anaheim in Round 1, and the Ducks posted plenty of unsustainable statistics. However, they're still a daunting matchup down the middle with veteran centers that have been playoff tested. Additionally, the power play showed well, and the goaltending was good enough for the sweep. John Gibson was really strong outside of Game 3.

Edmonton advanced with Connor McDavid posting just two goals and two assists against San Jose, and the power play was also underwhelming. The Oilers played lower-event hockey in Round 1 with fewer high-danger chances for and against, but that might have also been the result of there being so many penalties during the series. Edmonton will need to be more disciplined against Anaheim, too.

This will be a very interesting series, and it will probably give Pittsburgh-Washington a run in terms of back-and-forth play and entertainment value. It wouldn't be shocking to see Anaheim suffocate the Oilers, but there's a lot of upset potential here, too.

 


There's a better than zero chance the Blackhawks are a superior team than the Blues, and Nashville just beat the once-annual contenders handily. Additionally, St. Louis generated next to no offense against Minnesota and scored a single power-play goal through five games. Jake Allen will need to approach the .974 save percentage he posted in Games 1 through 3 to keep St. Louis in this series.

Nashville is deeper and faster, so while their 108.8 PDO is going to drop, the statistic can also highlight dominance in a short sample. Allowing just 8.78 high-danger scoring chances was noteworthy against Chicago, and Nashville's success at limiting high-danger chances has been consistent all season.

St. Louis will need to find ways to create more offensive opportunities and improve its power-play attack to keep pace with Nashville. Winning with defense and goaltending is possible, but when your opponent is equally equipped in that regard and significantly better offensively, it's a challenge.

 

All stats from Corsica and NaturalStatTrick, and are based on five-on-five play unless stated otherwise.

 

Thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

 

 

2 Comments

  1. Rick Roos 2017-04-25 at 06:53

    Link to NaturalStatTrick seems to be incorrect

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