Ramblings: Monday recaps, players of interest in Round 2 and what to make of Phil Kessel’s 2016-17 fantasy value (April 26)

Neil Parker

2016-04-25

Phil Kessel - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

One Game 7 down, one to go, players of interest in Round 2 and what to make of Phil Kessel's 2016-17 fantasy value …

 

 

My arm went straight up after St. Louis scored the first goal. The respect I have for the current Chicago core is second to no other. But, as Dobber pointed out in the ramblings yesterday, I was after the best team winning, not the team that knows how to win.

Game 7 was an excellent game, and here are just a few things I noticed.

Alex Pietrangelo was excellent, but Colton Parayko and Jay Bouwmeester also played solid defensively. There were a few instances where things got sloppy in the defensive zone, but that was typically Patrick Kane induced, and the '78 Canadiens would receive a pass failing to contain him.

Alexander Steen isn't 100 percent, but he is such a difficult matchup. He is rarely out of position, and he made a number of savvy decisions late that ate minutes off the clock. Similarly, David Backes could have a coming out party this spring. He is so heavy on opponents with his body and stick and occupies so much space.

Scottie Upshall is also playing a productive game, especially physically. He was leaned on in high-leverage situations late, too. Add Patrik Berglund, Troy Brouwer and Paul Stastny to the three previously mentioned forwards, and you've got six solid two-way players who own their space and wear down other teams.

Because of them, Robby Fabbri, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Jori Lehtera are somewhat free to focus on offense. Kevin Shattenkirk has a similar opportunity from the blue line.

 

Turning to Chicago, Patrick Kane (22:45), Jonathan Toews (20:00), Artemi Panarin (18:44), Duncan Keith (33:34) and Brent Seabrook (25:08) had no jump or burst to provide a game-winning rally late in the third period.

Because St. Louis made Chicago fight for every inch for seven games, the go-to Blackhawks were exhausted. Still, it is almost surprising Chicago didn't pull off the comeback and win Game 7.

As hammered home over the past few weeks, this is a deep and strong team with enough scoring depth to win 16 games. They were just two posts and out away, after all.

 

***

 

With the Chicago-St. Louis Game 7 being the top focus Monday, Game 6 between Anaheim and Nashville wasn't viewed in full.

There were spurts where Nashville looked absolutely dominant in the second period, and the Predators ultimately won the game.

The only thing that stood out significantly was Anaheim's inability to generate offense and chances while transitioning from the defensive to the offensive. Their off-the-rush attack fuelled by plus-speed is a big part of their success, especially when their fleet-footed rearguards are able to also join the play. This didn't happen enough in my viewing Monday.

This didn't happen enough in my viewing Monday. Additionally, the typically strong puck-moving defensemen from Anaheim we're making strong first passes. When Simon Despres is standing out as your best defenseman, that's not good.

Corey Perry missed a nice opportunity to tie the game late, and he remains without a goal in the series. There are two ways to look at that. First, it shows how dangerous Anaheim is throughout the lineup, but it also should highlight that without your best players producing at their best, it is difficult to finish teams in the playoffs.

Another Game 7 sounds good to me, though.

 

***

 

With seven of the eight second-round teams clinched, it seems fitting to look at some potential Round 2 players of interest.

 

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals: You'll want to know he'll be skating with Justin Williams and Evgeny Kuznetsov again for sure, but the promotion makes Johansson much more attractive. Add his role with the No. 1 power-play unit, and he's incredibly valuable in daily contests because of his exposure to the three top-line forwards, too.

 

Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks: Somewhat amazingly, Couture only had eight shots through the five-game series against the Kings. He did notch six points, though, including a power-play goal and two power-play helpers. Couture slides between the slot and net front with the man advantage, which makes him a nightly weapon given how lethal San Jose has been up a man this year.

 

Frans Nielsen, New York Islanders: How much will being separated from John Tavares at even strength impact Nielsen? Dating back to the regular season, Nielsen has four goals and five helpers through his past 12 games with 20 shots and 14 blocked shots. He also has logged huge minutes. If New York can become deeper with Nielsen and Tavares as a one-two punch up the middle, they're a much stronger team against a Steven Stamkos-less Tampa Bay.

 

Conor Sheary, Pittsburgh Penguins: When there's low-hanging fruit, you pick it. Obviously, Sheary isn't flying under the radar, but he's still beyond affordable at DraftKings, and he's playing with No. 87. His speed has been on full display through the past two games where he's returned a goal in consecutive outings, and he even blocked three shots in Game 5.

 

Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay Lightning: Just how high Drouin's fantasy stock ascends during the playoffs is going to be a lot of fun to track. He returned four helpers, 13 shots and 12 hits through the five-game series against Detroit and averaged 18:11 minutes per night, including 4:38 of the power-play variety. Interestingly, he had just 13 hits through 19 games during the regular season.

 

Patrick Eaves, Dallas Stars: It was a monster Round 1 showing from Eaves. He parlayed two power-play goals with three helpers and 17 shots to be an unheralded contributor for Dallas. He has been playing way down the depth chart at even strength, but Eaves averaged 3:21 power-play minutes per game in Round 1. He obviously will be bumped when Tyler Seguin returns, so how much will his offense suffer? Likely a lot.

 

Alan Quine, New York Islanders: Similar to Sheary, Quine's fantasy value increases by leaps and bounds as long as he's skating with John Tavares. Three points with 11 shots on net is impressive for a player who started the series with just 9:47 of ice time. If Quine can prove he can stick with the top line, New York is a better and more balanced team, too, so he should have a decent leash atop the depth chart.

 

Justin Schultz, Pittsburgh Penguins: Scratched for Games 2 through 5, Schultz has been a bust for any poolies who take a flier on him — ME! This projects as a disastrous matchup for Schultz to rejoin the lineup against, too. Yuck.

 

Dmitry Orlov, Washington Capitals: With an average of just 12:50 minutes of ice time and a single assist through six Round 1 games, Orlov wasn't much of a fantasy factor. Round 2 should see more offense, though, and with the Penguins quick off-the-rush attack, pucks can turn the opposite way in a hurry. Orlov's raw offensive skill set could enable him to find a few more scoring opportunities during this series.

 

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose Sharks: After missing the final 12 games of the regular season, Vlasic returned to be the minute-eating defenseman and pad the shot and blocked shot columns with nine and 18, respectively. However, he had just a single assist during the series. After the best offensive season of his career, it'll be interesting to see if Vlasic can up the scoresheet appearances in Round 2.

 

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Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning: The hulking netminder turned away 152 of 160 shots against Detroit for a .950 save percentage. And he is also much better than counterparts Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak (if available). It's difficult to envision Bishop not giving Tampa Bay a significant edge in series.

 

Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, Dallas Stars: The duo combined for an underwhelming .911 save percentage at five-on-five during Round 1, which was somehow even worse than the .917 mark they returned during the regular season. Additionally, they both posted a below average quality-start percentage this season, according to Hockey-Reference.com. The yo-yo act in the crease doesn't project to end until Dallas' season is over because neither goalie is capable of stringing together a solid stretch of games.

 

Who are your players of interest for Round 2?

I didn't include any Blues after discussing them already, but I'm definitely intrigued by Upshall's improved play, and whether Parayko can continue his exceptional play.

 

***

 

This is a pretty good read about Phil Kessel.

Dating back to the regular season, Kessel has 13 goals and 17 helpers with a plus-10 rating and 116 shots through his past 32 games. He is now producing like the player many expected to see next to Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, myself included.

However, it is with Nick Bonino as his pivot, and as mentioned in the article, the offensive depth is what is most intriguing about Pittsburgh going forward. They paced the league in goals per game since the All-Star break and since the day Mike Sullivan took over as head coach, which included long stretches with top players out of the lineup.

That four-line attack will carry Pittsburgh to the Conference Finals, unless Braden Holtby steals the series. Washington hasn't shown the same offensive depth, and they don't hold the significant special teams advantage against Pittsburgh as they do against the majority of teams in the league.

 

So, Dobberheads, two questions:

1) Why am I wrong about Pittsburgh advancing?

And …

2) Who are the wingers you're drafting ahead of Kessel next fall?

Hit the forum and fill me in!

 

***

 

Here is what I like about Kessel's stock:

Of those 30 points through his past 32 games, 12 were with the man advantage. The five players Pittsburgh tosses out on the No. 1 power-play unit are lethal, and Kessel plays a key role on the half wall. Those power-play points aren't going to disappear.

Playing away from Crosby and Malkin should enable more offensively friendly matchups for Kessel, and the alternative is slotting next to one of the best talents in the league. It is a win-win situation.

 

Here is my short list of wingers, in no particular order, I'd select over Kessel:

Alexander Ovechkin

Jamie Benn

Vladimir Tarasenko

Patrick Kane

Joe Pavelski

 

Here is the tier I'd place Kessel in right now:

Johnny Gaudreau

Nikita Kucherov

Filip Forsberg

Corey Perry

 

A little caveat here, I'm not arguing in the comments about this. It's April. But I'm just generally interested in your thoughts about the top-tier wingers and who they are. Hit the forum and lay it out there.

 

***

 

Thanks for checking in.

 

 

5 Comments

  1. Rick Roos 2016-04-26 at 05:06

    I think that after you read my cage match tomorrow, you might have a lower opinion of Forsberg.

    • Neil Parker 2016-04-26 at 07:34

      I see a Rick Roos-Michael Clifford cage match headlining DobberMania 2016.

  2. Striker 2016-04-26 at 08:22

    Not even factoring in my fantasy leagues scoring systems which weigh heavily to goals for FP’s; PP, SH & OT, just looking at straight points, I take Kane, Benn, Gaudreau, Wheeler, Pavelski, Panarin, Tarasenko, Ovechkin, Kucherov & Hall ahead of Kessel. Almost all of the following I select in front of Kessell simply as their not Kessel who I think is a selfish, 1 dimensional cancer & if unhappy about something could suck for a significant period of time. Forsberg, Pacioretty, Okposo, Stone, Simmonds, Huberdeau, Hoffman, Tiffoli, Atkinson, Saad, Landeskog, Domi, Steen, Jenner, Eberle & Larkin.

  3. Striker 2016-04-26 at 08:37

    The Pit@Was series is a coin toss & should be a great series. It’s 1 of the few series where I hedged my bet in my 3 box pools, 2 pickem pools; pick anyone you want different formats, & 2 draft pools. I have opposing players meeting in the 2nd round as I didn’t have a clue who would advance really but I did lean slightly more to Washington in my 5 box & pick em pools but more to Pittsburgh in my draft pools as Washington players went 1st.

    I’m sitting 7 for 8 in my bracket selections so far & I have Anaheim to advance but again in my draft pools I ended up with some Nashville players as Anaheim was snapped up pretty fast. The way the box’s were set up on office pools I ended up with 3 Nashville players in 1 pool; administrator set box’s, & 5 Anaheim players in the other 2; officepools set box’s.

    I another oddity when I 1st made my bracket pics I had Flo going to the final 4 but after my 2 draft pools, Florida players went way to early for my liking I ended up with NYI players so I choose to go all in & went back & adjusted my box & pickem pools with TB going to the final 4 playing NYI in round 2.

  4. finminer 2016-04-28 at 07:17

    I don’t take Kessel at all. He has disappointed me too many times and has made my All-DTM (“Dead To Me”) team.

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