Ramblings: Pens, Ducks, Hawks Win (Apr. 24)

Ian Gooding

2016-04-24

Pittsburgh proceeds, advantage Anaheim, Chicago forces Game 7, plus more…

Some relatively unfamiliar names (at least at the start of the season) were prominent in leading the Penguins into the second round with a 6-3 Game 5 win. Bryan Rust scored two goals and added an assist, while Matt Murray stopped 38 of 41 shots in earning his third win of the playoffs.

A week after Evgeni Malkin’s return to the lineup, here are the Penguins’ line combinations for this game:

18.1% EV CULLEN,MATT – KUHNHACKL,TOM – RUST,BRYAN

15.71% EV CROSBY,SIDNEY – HORNQVIST,PATRIC – SHEARY,CONOR

15.24% EV FEHR,ERIC – KUNITZ,CHRIS – MALKIN,EVGENI

11.9% EV BONINO,NICK – HAGELIN,CARL – KESSEL,PHIL

Rust and fellow AHL callup Conor Sheary (one goal) both impressed in this game, as did veteran Matt Cullen (one goal, one assist). Rust and Sheary shouldn’t be projected to be breakout players for the Pens next season, but they could be interesting waiver-wire pickups when the inevitable injuries hit this team.

Now that Murray is being viewed by a nationwide audience, fantasy owners should be curious as to where he fits into the Penguins’ goaltending plans next season. Perhaps a Ben Bishop/Andrei Vasilevskiy comparison could be made here, as Marc-Andre Fleury is unlikely to lose his starting job due to injury. With his path to the NHL not exactly clear, Murray may need to spend more time in the AHL next season.

But here’s an interesting thought:

Those who have jumped on the Murray train early in keeper leagues would love, love, love that idea. This also begs the question as to whether either Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen is still a bona fide NHL starting goalie.

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Henrik Lundqvist got pulled for the second consecutive game. This time he was pulled after two periods after allowing six goals on 23 shots. He ends the playoffs with an abysmal 4.39 goals-against average and .867 save percentage, both his worst playoff totals since the 2005-06 season.

Rangers’ fans will blame the defense, which no doubt played a role in the demise of the Rangers (no Ryan McDonagh). But that defense will play a role in a goalie’s numbers regardless. Whatever the reason, from March 1 to the end of the regular season, Lundqvist recorded just four wins with a 3.37 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage (see the Goalie Calculator for more stats like this one), so at least we can say we saw this playoff performance coming. Unless the Blueshirts make significant upgrades on defense, don’t pay a name-brand price for Lundqvist next season.

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Ryan Garbutt and David Perron each had a nice game on Ryan Getzlaf’s line, each scoring a goal. Perron also added an assist. Save for the Ryan KeslerJakob Silfverberg duo, Bruce Boudreau has stuck his lines in a blender.

25.84% EV COGLIANO, ANDREW – KESLER, RYAN – SILFVERBERG, JAKOB

16.75% EV GARBUTT, RYAN – GETZLAF, RYAN – PERRON, DAVID

13.4% EV PERRY, COREY – RAKELL, RICKARD – THOMPSON, NATE

11% EV HORCOFF, SHAWN – MCGINN, JAMIE – STEWART, CHRIS

Kesler won 24 of 30 faceoffs in this game. He also broke a three-game stretch without a point by scoring an empty-net goal in 20 minutes of icetime.

Frederik Andersen earned his third consecutive win, stopping 27 of 29 shots. Round and round we go with the Ducks’ goaltending situation. Andersen will be in until he has a rough start. Then Bruce Boudreau will turn back to John Gibson. This is fine for the regular season, unless you’re a fantasy owner of course. But I’m thinking that Boudreau’s inability to stick with one guy will eventually cost him a playoff series, unless Andersen is the guy going forward.

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The Blues appeared to be in a solid position to finally slay the dragon that is the Chicago Blackhawks after a Game 4 victory. And again after a 3-1 lead in Game 6. But when you have the defending Stanley Cup champions on the ropes, you need to find a way to make the knockout blow. But the Blues have yet to find that punch, which we know to be a familiar tune by now. But with it being a Game 7, particularly in St. Louis, all bets are off.

Here are the line combinations for the victorious Blackhawks:

19.39% EV KANE,PATRICK – PANIK,RICHARD – TOEWS,JONATHAN

17.01% EV HOSSA,MARIAN – KRUGER,MARCUS – LADD,ANDREW

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13.61% EV ANISIMOV,ARTEM – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

7.14% EV KANE,PATRICK – SHAW,ANDREW – TOEWS,JONATHAN

6.12% EV DESJARDINS,ANDREW – SHAW,ANDREW – WEISE,DALE

Andrew Shaw made his return to the Hawks’ lineup, scoring a power-play goal while on first-line power-play minutes with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. But it was Richard Panik who was slotted between Toews and Kane for the even-strength first-line minutes. Panik, who was acquired from the Leafs in an unheralded midseason trade, now has assists in back-to-back games. He has definite sleeper potential in playoff pools should the Hawks advance to the second round.

With his two helpers on Saturday, Artemi Panarin now has a five-game point streak in which he has recorded seven points.

How’s this for a playoff stat:

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Lots of discussion surrounding Vladimir Tarasenko’s (lack of) icetime and shift length in this series. Tarasenko, who now has four goals in the series, skated just under 17 minutes in Game 6. Although Tarasenko is undoubtedly the Blues’ best scorer, he received only the fifth-highest icetime among Blues’ forwards in this game. He also has yet to crack the 17-minute mark in icetime in any non-overtime game in this series.

Even though the Blues received only one power play in this game, Tarasenko received a grand total of EIGHT SECONDS of power-play time. He was not a happy camper about the situation either.

Memo to Ken Hitchcock from Tarasenko: Use me on the power play in Game 7, otherwise one of us won’t be employed by the Blues next season. You probably know which one of us that would be.

Andrew Berkshire of Sportsnet has more on Tarasenko’s icetime situation.

*

So, with the Kings’ early exit from the playoffs, my bracket is officially busted. Picking a team that is out in five games as my Stanley Cup winner may be the worst hockey prediction I’ve ever made (at least since I predicted my Canucks would win the Cup in 2012 and were out in the same number of games to those same Kings). It’s kind of like being bounced from an NFL survivor pool in Week 1. But hey, smaller victories – at least I correctly predicted Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh series wins.

Jonathan Quick’s 2016 playoff experience turned out much like that of the above-mentioned Lundqvist, although Quick’s numbers don’t stand out as much for the wrong reasons (3.04 GAA, .886 SV%). Quick also did not end the regular season on a high note, recording a .905 save percentage from March 17 onward.

From what I saw in this series, Quick appeared less poised and controlled in the crease than his former backup Martin Jones. The Kings’ unstable defense (injured Alec Martinez, overused Drew Doughty) may have played a role in that. But like the Rangers, the Kings will have some work to do to upgrade their defense to help their goaltender. That might be difficult given their tight cap situation – a situation that may allow Milan Lucic to sign elsewhere over the summer.

Demetri’s Contrarian piece today focuses on the elimination of the Kings and what happens next. Remember that this is a team that missed the playoffs last season, so perhaps we’ve overestimated the Kings – myself included, of course. But if the Kings are in fact now a team on the decline, Quick’s fantasy stock will fall accordingly.  

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Playoff predictions for tomorrow:

Even though Philadelphia and Minnesota extending their series are good stories, watch for Washington and Dallas to close out these series tomorrow. At least if the Flyers are going to force a Game 7, they can’t be outshot 44-11 and expect to win again. Claude Giroux will also need to find a way to make an appearance (only one assist in five games).

I’ll also predict that the Panthers will force a Game 7 against the Islanders, even though Nick Bjugstad did not make the trip to Brooklyn. It would be a shame to see Reilly Smith’s postseason run end (eight points and a +7 in five playoff games).

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Saturday Headlines: Announcements on a new GM in Arizona and new coach in Ottawa could be made soon.

Enjoy your Sunday. Follow me on Twitter.

16 Comments

  1. Steve Lichti 2016-04-24 at 03:08

    I wanted a sharks victory solo based on how the sharks stoled jones from the kings….booyah!!!

    • Striker 2016-04-24 at 08:43

      The Sharks acquired Jones from Boston. Boston acquired Jones from LA in the Lucic trade then sent him to SJ for their 2016 1st round pick & college prospect Sean Kuraly.

  2. Striker 2016-04-24 at 08:50

    Don’t you think with expansion coming that Pit, TB & others with 2 goalies will be resolving this issue in net long before expansion arrives? Or are they just going to allow themselves to lose 1 for nothing.

    I don’t think so. Pit will look to move Fleury or Murray this summer as quickly as possible. The longer a team sits on 2 goalie assets as we approach expansion in a little over a year the less value that goalie will have.

    3 teams need goalies now. Calgary, Carolina & Toronto. Anaheim, Pittsburgh & Tampa Bay would be wise to move their extra goalies, Andersen/Gibson,, Fleury/Murray or Bishop/Visilevsky respectively ASAP or risk losing them for nothing.

    • Instant Karma 2016-04-24 at 11:56

      Pretty sure that Fleury has a NTC…

      • Striker 2016-04-24 at 12:45

        Fleury has a modified NTC. Lists 18 teams he can be traded to

    • Dobber 2016-04-24 at 12:17

      Most teams will have two goalies. They can’t all solve the problem and with such a buyer’s market the return won’t be as much as it would normally be.
      Second, Fleury is expensive. Pittsburgh could leave him available and by 2017 it would almost be a blessing that he gets taken. If he wins a Cup, that’s another matter. But if Murray carries them past Washington (and is thus given the reins) then Pittsburgh won’t mind the cap relief of losing Fleury. It would save them from losing a valuable and cheaper skater.

      • Striker 2016-04-24 at 12:48

        2 good goalies? Like Anh, Pit or TB? Goalies that they are just willing to be selected in expansion? Surely you don’t think those 3 teams are just going to let those assets be lost for nothing?

        Like any stars, teams will always pay. Goalies never really move at full market value regardless, simple supply & demand but Andersen, Fleury/Murray or Bishop/Vasilivesky will all garner at least what was paid for Lehner or Jones. Potentially even more, closer to what Colorado paid to acquire Varlamov regardless of expansion looming.

        • Dobber 2016-04-24 at 15:59

          30 teams will lose good assets for nothing, and three teams are going to lose a very good goaltender for nothing. I can’t speak to those three teams because the goalie landscape changes quickly. A year from now, PIT could have Jones and Niemi for all we know. But three teams are losing a top goalie, and moving one to another team just means that the ‘other team’ now has a top goalie to lose. No getting around it.
          The goalies moved at market value last year – Talbot’s price was too high, in fact. But the price will go down now, though probably not too much in case of the elite No.2s like Murray and Vas.

          • Striker 2016-04-24 at 17:27

            I disagree.

            By the time expansion roles around be it 1 or 2 teams & teams allowed to protect 7F, 3D, 1G or 8 skaters & a G very few teams are going to lose much of anything with players with 2 years or less of NHL service being exempt. I have run all 30 teams since the NHL came out & laid the ground work for expansion. NMC’s currently being cloudy to say the least but the NHL having stated numerous times already that NMC’s don’t allow for no movement via expansion. NMC’s are addressed specifically in the CBA as to what constitutes movement. Expansion isn’t on that list!

            Few teams have more than 1 solid keeper in net now unless a prospect & unless that prospect is a teams best player exposed they will be passed over. Subban in Bos as an example. Run thru it team by team with the exception of 6 maybe 7 teams right now before teams start positioning themselves for expansion that are faced with losing anything of any real consequence. 3rd liners or 4/5 Dman that almost all can be addressed & replaced in the UFA market.

            Those 6 or 7 teams will have moved out the vast majority of those extra assets long before the expansion draft ever happens to the numerous teams that don’t have enough keepers to meet either of the protection formula’s now & there are more of those than those that have to many.

            As for the 3 teams who currently have what would appear to be 2 #1’s or very soon to be #1’s; Anh, Pit & TB, they will trade the extra asset long before they risk losing them for nothing. With Car, Cal & Tor all needing #1 goalies to play never mind protect this will be addressed & they will not be discounted really any more so than goalies normally are.

            I know your saying tongue in cheek that anything is possible when you say Jones & Niemi could be in Pittsburgh but frankly it isn’t reality & there isn’t a chance in hell that type of scenario is playing out. Things happen that shock us but virtually non existent by #’s.

            Things play out as they appear they should. This isn’t rocket science.

          • Dobber Sports 2016-04-24 at 17:42

            I said that all teams have a good goalie they can lose. Some teams have two. Three good goalies will be lost in 2017. For nothing. And shifting one good goalie to another team just means that team has the extra goalie. Same problem, new team.
            You’re talking like a guy in my hockey pool (we’re expanding this summer – protect 10). He’s dumping players to get to 10 great ones on his team so he loses nobody good. Laughable. I just pick out a good player I’ll lose, and I’ll try to take advantage of his folly and improve the rest of my team. And if I don’t lose the good player I’ll be leaving exposed (that actually happened last expansion) – then that’s just gold.

            Teams haven’t, in the past, dumped a bunch of assets and whittled down their ‘keepers’ to prep for an expansion draft (other than tweaks) and that won’t change now. Indeed it isn’t rocket science.

          • Striker 2016-04-25 at 11:42

            No, most teams don’t have a good goalie they are going to lose in expansion. Every team has to protect 1. 3 teams currently don’t even have a #1. The 2 really good goalies that Anh, Arz & Pit have will all be moved before the expansion draft happens if not sooner most likely to the 3 teams that don’t have a #1 now, Cal, Car or Tor. If 1 of those chooses to sign Riemer as a UFA than I assume a team that isn’t totally sold on their #1 protector in net will trade for 1 of those 3 teams 2nd goalie to protect as their keeper in net. Dal, Flo; Luongo is getting very old, Min or NYI.

          • Dobber 2016-04-25 at 12:03

            You’re not reading what I’m saying. It’s been a good debate and my point was already made. So I’ll leave it at that

          • Striker 2016-04-25 at 12:09

            I assumed I was missing your point. Confused but all good.

  3. Striker 2016-04-24 at 09:15

    Tarasenko doesn’t kill penalties. Last night at even strength he skated more minutes than any other StL forward. Unfortunately his line just completed their shift when StL went on the PP late in the 2nd. With the exception of game 4 where his minutes were low; 5 mins less on average, compared to his peers yet he had 2 goals & 1 assist he has been essentially on par with almost all other forwards in every other game if you eliminate penalty killing minutes.

    StL roles 3 lines; 4th gets spotted, & runs 2 preset PP units. The ice distribution of the top 3 lines is very similar. The #1 line Steen with Stastny & Brouwer do all the heavy lifting & play nominally more; about 1.5 to 2 mins more per game on average, but then the next 2 lines are very close.

    I hear what your saying & caught the same report on TV re the short shift issue. Hitchcock beats to his own drummer & you would think that he would try to get Tarasenko more offensive zone minutes & not be pulling him so quickly when these opportunities present themselves.

    It looked to me last night going into the 2nd period that StL altered it’s attack & tried to protect a 2 goal lead taking a more defensive approach. I hate this strategy & have never understood why teams take their foot of the peddle. Keep playing the same game that got you the lead to begin with stop trying to protect a 2 goal lead.

  4. NHLGodfather 2016-04-24 at 09:37

    The St.Louis Blues are one of the first expansion teams to join the NHL in 1967. They have never won the Cup. They have the team to do it right now. They have the better goalie. There is no excuse for losing game 6. None! I guess the Chicago Black Hawks are that good. The suggested Tarasenko memo to Hitchkock. I’m thinking (rather hoping), Tarasenko says Bye-bye Blues, hello Red Wings (to replace Datsyuk). But that’s not going to happen. More likely the Wings target Loui Eriksson and join Detroit’s “team Sweden.” But I digress…The Blues better win game seven. Hitchkock does not have that Shakespearean lean hungry look.

    • finminer 2016-04-25 at 07:22

      That Elliott is better than Crawford is arguable. The Hawks’ D is weaker than they’ve ever been in recent years but Crawford is still standing tall. On the other hand, the Blues’ D and possession is better than it’s ever been, giving more support to Elliott. My contention has been that the Blues’ issues the last few years boil down to Hitchcock’s player usage. That seems to be the point that’s causing them problems now.

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