Ramblings: Sharks, Matthews vs. Laine, minor notes and more (July 20)

Dobber

2016-07-19

Rambling about Matthews vs. Laine (again), the Sharks, minor notes from around the league and more …

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I’m finding a surprising amount of resistance so the idea that Auston Matthews should be the first overall pick in this year’s keeper league draft. So now the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Matthews was winning as the top dog for the better part of two years before a few smart scouts said – “Hey, wait a minute. Patrik Laine is pretty awesome. And in fantasy hockey he put up as many or more points than Matthews.”

At first, many fantasy owners resisted the idea, but then it started gaining steam. Then Jesse Puljujarvi was drafted fourth by the Oilers and he started getting into the mix as well. Until we reach today, a fine day in mid-to-late July. I have a conversation online or offline with many different people from all walks of life and it’s been awhile since I’ve heard somebody say: “I’d take Matthews first.” In fact, one guy asked me which one he should take first and I said “Matthews, then Laine.” And he said “LOL – no way, it’s Laine or Puljujarvi! Which one of them? Matthews is better for real hockey not fantasy!”

I’m here to help you reel it back in. Hold on there, compadre.

I am open to the idea of Laine becoming the best fantasy asset of the three. I’m open to Puljujarvi as the best fantasy asset of the three. And I’m open to Matthews becoming the best asset of the three. In fact if I were to lay odds that, looking back from 2030 at their careers we would say Player X had the best numbers for fantasy hockey (points only), I would lay these odds:

Matthews: 40%

Laine: 35%

Puljujarvi: 22%

Someone else in the ’16 field: 3%

Matthews is still my top pick, but I wouldn’t shoot myself if I was ‘stuck’ with second pick thanks to some lottery system or whatever. He’s a safe player who has a ‘floor’ of 70 points and a ceiling of close to 100. He’s had some comparisons, points-wise, to Anze Kopitar, who had 81 points in a defensive system before. Laine is a lesser Alex Ovechkin. He’s never going to score 65 goals, but maybe he’ll score 55 and get 85 points. But his ‘floor’ is 35 goals and 70 points. Puljujarvi looked like a 70-point player (potentially) to me, but his value spikes because of who he’ll potentially play with. Just like Gretzky pushed Jari Kurri’s points upwards by at least 25%, Connor McDavid could do that to Puljujarvi.

They all look great. I wouldn’t laugh at any of them going first. But Matthews is still my guy. He’s the best player, has the highest ‘without help’ upside of the three, and he’s the safest pick. And don’t worry about the team he’s on, he’ll get 60 points this year or more – mark it. Doesn’t matter who he plays with.

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Jason LaBarbera has announced his retirement at the age of 36. He finishes with a 62-73-20 record, 2.85 GAA and 0.907 SV%. His best season was in 2007-08 with Los Angeles when he was 17-23-2, 3.00 and 0.910. But that was the only season in which he got into more than 30 games. He will be the goaltending coach for Calgary of the WHL.

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Some minor moves that you may have missed this week that won’t impact your league in any way but it’s July so you may find it marginally interesting…

Kyle Chipchura signed to play in the KHL

– Nathan Lieuwen signed with San Antonio of the AHL. That’s Colorado’s affiliate so if Varlamov gets hurt (likely) and either Pickard or Spencer Martin get hurt (possible), we could see him. Good landing spot for a fringe goalie who is hoping for a couple more NHL games in his career.

Viktor Tikhonov signed to play next season in the KHL. He came over from the KHL along with Artemi Panarin to play for the Blackhawks last season, giving the NHL a shot. Which one do you think enjoyed more success?

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– I missed this completely, as I was away on the weekend: Josh Jooris has signed to play with the Rangers on a one-year deal. It’s a two-way deal, so this is a depth signing. His NHL ($600k) and AHL ($350k) are fairly close – it’s a contract designed to encourage teams to keep him or make him a frequent call-up.

Jordan Schroeder was placed on waivers in what is an interesting situation. Schroeder filed for arbitration, which is weird because he’s not really a regular on the team. But I guess he wants to be taken seriously. It’s hard to believe that he’s only 25 years old, it seems like he’s been a minor-leaguer forever. Anyway, he’s going to be looking for a one-way contract and who can blame him? So the Wild put him on waivers to show him and the arbitrator that teams will have no interest in him even if he’s available for free. That would likely get them the ruling they are looking for (i.e. a two-way contract).

– The Devils signed prospect defenseman Reece Scarlett to a one-year, two-way contract. I think he can make the team as a seventh defenseman, but at least this year will have no fantasy impact. You can read more on him here.

– The Stars signed Matej Stransky to a one-year, two-way deal. He had been playing his way off the radar as a pro but had somewhat of a bounce-back year last season in the AHL. It’s not enough to put him in the running to make the team though, barring a miracle camp. You can read more on the 23-year-old Stransky here.

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Matt Nieto signed a one-year deal on the weekend and we didn’t touch upon it. He’s a skilled player with top-six upside, but it will never happen. Unfortunate, but he’s a victim of a numbers game and he’s not skilled enough to squeeze onto a scoring line. Here are the legit scoring line players on the Sharks:

Joonas Donskoi, Joe Pavelski , Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Mikkel Boedker, Tomas Hertl. And there’s your top six. I don’t think Patrick Marleau fits anymore. He’ll be 37 this year and coming off a 48-point season. Third line! Here are the prospects who will soon hit that top six:

Nikolai Goldobin, Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc

And here are the players, in order, who I think can fill the top six in a pinch. When desperate.  In order:

Marleau, Chris Tierney, Nieto, Melker Karlsson, Tommy Wingels

As you can see, for Nieto to ever get into the top six he would need four players ahead of him to get injured. More, if any of those three prospects make the team.

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Patrik Laine – yes, he's good:

 

 

17 Comments

  1. paul 2016-07-20 at 01:34

    Interesting take thanks Darryl. My opinion for what its worth is that there is a premium on wingers over the center position, further many leagues award goals more than assists which adds weight to the Laine side of the ledger sheet. Still, its tough to “reach” for Laine over Austin.

    • Neil Parker 2016-07-20 at 08:04

      The winger eligibility is the key component for ranking Laine ahead of Matthews. If it were just Forwards, or positions didn’t matter, it’s an entirely different case. A points-only format is also completely different.

    • Chad Burly 2016-07-20 at 08:38

      My thoughts exactly. And if you have a league that scores faceoff wins, then it probably swings more weight onto centers.

  2. Sam 2016-07-20 at 07:25

    Someone else in the ’16 field: 3% : Clayton Keller

    • number54 2016-07-20 at 15:51

      You wouldn’t count out DeBrincat, would you?

  3. Sam 2016-07-20 at 07:27

    Matthews is way ahead of Laine, like 2 years ahead.
    Matthews 2017 = 55 pts
    2018 = 65 pts
    2019 = 70 pts for the rest of his life
    Laine 2017 = 40 pts
    Laine 2018 = 55 pts
    Laine 2019 = 60 pts
    Laine 2020 = 70 pts

    • BF 2016-07-22 at 12:54

      Your analysis is awful.

      • Dobber 2016-07-22 at 13:23

        As was your comment.

        It’s an opinion, and it was fine. Thank goodness for different opinions.

        • BF 2016-07-26 at 14:16

          Please don’t encourage him to post more like that.

          • Dobber 2016-07-26 at 14:46

            If he’s right, promise to donate $100 to cancer. Let’s talk in 2020

          • BF 2016-08-03 at 13:51

            It’s a deal! I’ll message you on twitter in 4 years to follow-up :)

  4. Ziggy Winnipeg 2016-07-20 at 09:52

    Points come with opportunity and there is much more room for that on the Maple Leafs then there is with the Jets. Long term upside goes to Laine though.

    • number54 2016-07-20 at 15:50

      I think Laine will be the better goal scorer, but in points-only he might end up posting some cy young type numbers.

    • Mark 2016-07-20 at 16:00

      Don’t forget to compare the quality of linemates that Laine will be playing with vs Matthews. Because he’s instantly become the go-to guy for the Leafs he’ll see the top checking lines and shutdown defensemen when the Leafs play an opponent, whereas Laine will be on either the 1st or 2nd line and teams playing the Jets have more talented offensive players to worry about than just him. Matthews ought to have an advantage in terms of total icetime, though, especially on the powerplay because he has less competition. Playing for the Leafs as their media-annointed saviour will also put him under a lot more stress to meet expectations than Laine.
      Long term upside? Star centers generally produce higher point totals than wingers, but far fewer goals. I guess their upside depends on what their team needs most. This does seem like the next Sid vs Ovi argument.

  5. Jabroni Slayr 2016-07-20 at 10:16

    I get that you gotta be bold and willing to take a gamble on proclaiming a player’s greatness but I cringe when I hear something like “70 point floor” for teenager who’s never played a single NHL game. Matthews and Laine have both been stars at each level thus far but so have many before them. Only 17 players scored 70 or more points in the NHL this year and only 19 did last year. I don’t have a problem with projecting a sky high ceiling with prospects,100 points is probably realistic for either of those guys, maybe even for Puljujarvi but projecting a floor that puts a guy in the top 20 NHL players before he’s even legally able to buy a beer in Canada is a little much..

    • Dobber 2016-07-20 at 10:21

      Hey man, sorry for my improper wording. I’ll rephrase:
      “Zero-point floor, but I’m confident that in his prime he’ll hit 70 points.”

      Apologies!

      • number54 2016-07-20 at 15:50

        So should we take this as being like their 3YPs (70pts) vs. upsides (100pts)?

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