Tuesday, August 4

Neil Parker

2015-08-04

Zach Bogosian - USA Today Sports Images

 

A closer look at a number of Defensemen's ice time last season for fantasy hockey indicators …

 

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Saturday, I hit up forwards whose ice time from the 2014-15 season could change this upcoming year, and how it could impact their fantasy value.

 

Time to look at some defensemen.

 

Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames: The 31-year-old rearguard had a career year, which was largely a result of his beastly finish. Over his final 38 games, Wideman posted 33 points — five goals — with an average of 25:43 minutes of ice per game. With Mark Giordano out of the lineup, Wideman went good for 19 points and an average of 27:18 minutes per game over his final 20 contests. Add Dougie Hamilton and who knows where Wideman fits. Kris Russell's upside is hindered even more, though.

 

Zach Bogosian, Buffalo Sabres: The move to Buffalo jumped Bogosian's minutes from 22:10 per game up to 26:39. The jury is still out on just how much offensive upside he has, but Bogosian enters his age-25 season this year, and there is still room for growth. He should lead Buffalo blue liners in minutes, and he is a world-class skater. The arrow is pointing up, and Bogosian is worth a look in deeper leagues. Although, expect Ramus Ristolainen to receive the sleeper ink.

 

Tobias Enstrom, Winnipeg Jets: The addition of Tyler Myers didn't curb Enstrom's fantasy value, but Enstrom scored at a lower pace (40.5 to 0.35 points per game), and he lost approximately a minute and a half of ice time per game (24:05 to 22:44). Add another step forward from Jacob Trouba, and Enstrom could see a major downturn in his fantasy value. He isn't in too much danger, though, largely due to his $5.75 million cap hit. Just don't expect 40 points.

 

Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers: At 36, Campbell is certainly on the decline. The Cats have plenty of young rearguards capable of adding minutes, too, so a playing-time hit shouldn't surprise anyone. However, unlike most cases, fewer shifts might not seriously impact Campbell's production, especially if he is leaned on in fewer defensive situations. Still, he is only viable in deep leagues, as his points-per-game mark has dropped in three consecutive seasons.

 

Keith Yandle, New York Rangers: Expect Yandle to be a polarizing fantasy commodity this fall. He will certainly see a downgrade in ice time, and his power-play fate is unknown, too. Certainly he projects to quarterback the No. 1 unit, but captain Ryan McDonagh is also more than capable, which presents a problem if the Rangers go with four forwards. Personally, I suspect Yandle will be fine, and he is a sneaky source of cross-category production. Perhaps this billing is too high, but you'll be fine with Yandle as your No. 1 blue liner.

 

Trevor Daley, Chicago Blackhawks: Little needs to be said here, as Daley will play fewer minutes with the Blackhawks, and his minutes will likely be less offensively favorable. Still, he'll likely chip in enough to remain a low-end option in the majority of leagues. Don't be surpised if Daley never reaches 30 points again.

 

Johnny Boychuk, New York Islanders: With just 21:41 minutes of ice per game, Boychuk appears to have potential for another step forward offensively with more ice time. I was shocked to see his minutes so low. If I recall correctly, Boychuk nursed numerous injuries last season, so perhaps there were some precautionary limited nights. Most telling, though, is that he averaged 26:00 minutes in the playoffs with only one playoff game in the series. Another sneaky boost in production could be coming with a few added minutes of ice.

 

Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche: With his points per game climbing in three consecutive seasons and high-end offensive potential, Barrie's fantasy stock doesn't need any stoking. However, for a full-fledged breakout, he may need to see a few more minutes. At just 21:22 per game last year, there is room for more, too. Just be cautious with Barrie. Meeting 50 points isn't easy, and only 20 players have hit the bar the past two seasons. Residence in overvalued territory looms, if he hasn't already settled in.

 

Jake Gardiner, Toronto Maple Leafs: Garinder's ice time was all over the map — much like his on-ice performance. Still, over the final 35 games of the season, he averaged 22:24 minutes per game with seven games under the 20-minute mark. Gardiner also finished with 15 points and just a minus-3 rating over the 35-game stretch. Gardiner is a complete wildcard entering the 2015-16 season, but he is a wildcard with top-end skating ability and a clean slate with a renowned coach who might morph him into a consistent player.

 

Nick Leddy, New York Islanders: See Johnny Boychuk, outside the nagging injury part, it all applies, including the extra minutes in the playoffs. However, Leddy is younger and owns more offensive potential. Leddy could have a true breakout year, and 50 points are within reach sooner than later.

 

Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs: Over his final nine games of the season, Rielly averaged 23:52 minutes per night with a goal, three helpers, 19 shots, four penalty minutes and a plus-1 rating. Is it a sign of things to come? Perhaps, but Rielly is just 21 years old entering the campaign, and what becomes of the Maple Leafs next season ranges from dumpster fire to an unknown. It doesn't include bounce-back season, though. Temper expectations, but Rielly is a budding star.

 

Seth Jones, Nashville Predators: It wasn't a banner sophomore season for Jones, and he begun with an average of just 17:35 minutes per game over his first 39 outings. His statistics were weird all year. Seriously, though, how else would you describe it? It is a genuine question. Looking ahead, Jones will rebound and should top 30 points, but he has a few stalwarts in front of him limiting his upside. There is absolutely no reason to reach for Jones in redraft leagues this fall.

 

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I don't want to offend anyone here, and stick with me on this subject.

Rotoworld's fantasy updates seem to be starting to lean closer to editorial than fact, at times. I bring this up because first I noticed it, and then it came up at a BBQ with other industry folks Sunday.

I'll often scroll through their app on my phone for updates across sports a few times a day to stay in touch, especially if I'm out and about. I play in some competitive leagues, and it is my job, at least in some form.

I also do Hot of the Wire news coverage for USA Today Fantasy Sports, where we were trained not to editorialize our updates. There is a tip section to express opinion and present statistics, etc.

However, a lot of recent Rotoworld tips have been extremely misleading and often present information not found within their linked source.

I bring this up because fantasy owners already should be careful about taking everything they read at face value. So when creditable news sources are stretching stories to grab clicks or keep their news feed rolling, it makes the process that much more difficult.

 

Here is an example from today:

hagelin.update

Upon reading that, my immediate question is, says who?

After reading the article, no one said Hagelin is slated to receive an opportunity in the top-six forward group. The author of the article, Kyle Shohara, posited,

"Although training camp and preseason are still a few months away, the thought of Hagelin returning to his top-six roots isn’t farfetched. His strong two-way play could be a fit on left wing alongside Ryan Kesler and Silfverberg, a duo which found chemistry with Matt Beleskey (who signed with Boston via free agency) during the regular season and throughout the playoffs. Or perhaps Hagelin gets a shot on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Hagelin isn’t just limited to playing left wing, as noted by Murray, who says he can play either wing if necessary."

Again, no where in the article does it say Hagelin is set for a top-six audition.

Now with that said, we all know Hagelin is going to be given a chance in that role. However, it has much more impact if it was head coach Bruce Boudreau or general manager Bob Murray who said it. Not when a nameless news updater insinuates it based on a columnist's depth chart projection and a player's opinion. Plus, there is a chance the Anaheim brass view Hagelin as a fit for a third-line, penalty-killing role.

 

Here is another example:

eberle.update

Perhaps I'm just being nitpicky with the wording, but where and when did anyone say Jordan Eberle was going to play with Conor McDavid and Taylor Hall. Wasn't Eberle's strong finish last year alongside Benoit Pouliot and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?

The source is a fantasy hockey outlook on the Oilers. I consider this a serious reach for an update, if you're basing Eberle's ascenion on his strong finish, can't you just say that?

 

Again, this isn't an attack on Rotowold, but a friendly reminder to look critically at fantasy news. It is quiet out there, so stretching for a story to keep the page looking fresh can happen pretty easily. Just be aware.

 

***

 

Until next time, cheers …

 

 

4 Comments

  1. Claudio 2015-08-04 at 15:53

    Fantastic as always. Keep it up!

  2. dan coscino 2015-08-04 at 17:11

    Don't bet on Boychuk and Leddy's minutes increasing (especially Boychuck). Capuano seems determined to keep their minutes down during the regular season.

  3. Kevin 2015-08-04 at 19:05

    Just curious as to why there is zero mention of Derek Roy EDM in the Fantasy guide…. just a miss when putting it together or does Dobber know something that we dont?

  4. Neil Parker 2015-08-04 at 19:15

    Derek Roy is currently a free agent, which is an upcoming section to be added to the guide.

     

    Might be too early to say Capuano is determined to keep their minutes down, as this season could tell a different story. Another year with similar totals would be telling, though. It is a situation to watch.

     

    Thanks for the comments.. 

     

     

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