Ramblings – Saturday, Aug. 1

Neil Parker

2015-08-01

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - USA Today Sports Images

 

We're digging pretty deep for fantasy content at this point in the summer, and I just spent the past two days working overtime to cover the MLB trade deadline. So, while this may seem extremely simplistic, there could be a lot of value in plucking out fantasy relevant players whose ice time might change and look at how it could impact their production.

We'll look at forwards today, and while nothing with these players projects to change drastically, there could be subtle fantasy implications. Additionally, I didn't separate based on situation. Special teams have huge importance to fantasy value, but most of the players listed are power-play locks, so the focus is more an overarching projection.

 

C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers: While there is no doubt the arrow is pointing straight up for Nugent-Hopkins, it isn't out of the question for him to take an ice-time hit. After all, RNH finished second in the league in minutes per game among forwards with a 20:38 mark. A point-per-game season is within reach, but if Nugent-Hopkins' ice time dwindles a touch, there is potential he fails to take the huge leap forward.

 

C/W Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks: With a new coach comes a new philosophy and potential usage changes. Pavelski's ice time isn't going to fall off the map by any means, but his 26.9 shifts and 20:07 minutes per game are hefty totals. It is worth noting, new bench boss Peter DeBoer used Travis Zajac over 20 minutes per game last season while he was coaching the Devils, though. Perhaps there isn't a lot to fret, but it is certainly worth monitoring.

 

W Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres: Despite being frequently relegated to the third line last year, Kane still averaged 19:18 minutes per game, which was good for 26th in the league. It isn't a guarantee to increase with Buffalo, but more of the same can be expected. Most importantly, though, those minutes should be tilted towards offensive situations, too. Kane in a more offensive role and entering his prime has profit written all over it, if he falls into the deep middle rounds, of course.

 

C Ryan Johansen, Columbus Blue Jackets: Johansen averaged 19:30 minutes per game last year, and there is a chance his ice time is cut during the 2015-16 season. Assuming the Blue Jackets are healthy, Brandon Dubinsky can eat up a few shifts, and Gregory Campbell is capable of playing 10 minutes and change, at least. There shouldn't be a lot of concern, but still, there could be a slight hit to his even-strength minutes.

 

C Zemgus Girgensons, Buffalo Sabres: Obviously, Girgensons is unlikely to average 19:04 minutes per game next season, but he'll have a top-six role to lose. So, while his role could be somewhat reduced, he should continue his career trajectory with a slight offensive boost in numbers. He is a fringe fantasy asset in the majority of formats without winger eligibility, though, so that'll be important to monitor.

 

C Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils: His ice time plummeted from 20:08 minutes per game under DeBoer to just 18.25 over the final 46 games of the season. He concluded the season with 17 points — seven goals — over those 46 games, which actually returned better offensive numbers per game. Regardless, Zajac isn't much of a factor outside of cavernous leagues, but Adam Henrique will likely gain minutes.

 

W Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues: With T.J. Oshie gone, there could be room for Schwartz to soak up a few more minutes. The pint-sized winger averaged 18:14 minutes per game last season, but it wouldn't be out of the question to see him and Valadamir Tarasenko (just 17:37 minutes per game) both play a larger role for the Blues. Schwartz is going to breakout this season in a big way, and fantasy owners will want to target him early in the middle rounds.

 

W Justin Abdelkader, Detroit Red Wings: Another example where a coaching change could have an impact, Abdelkader averaged a career-high 17:55 minutes last year, which was oodles more than his previous career high (15:17). Abdelkader is a great mutli-category contributor for rotisserie leagues, but it would be wise to expect a drop in offensive production, which will likely align with less ice time.

 

C Nazem Kadri, Toronto Maple Leafs: Who really knows how things are going to play out with Toronto this season, and especially from player to player. Kadri should see a more ice time, though. He should be a key cog offensively, and most importantly, the No. 1 puck distributor with the man advantage. There is upside, albeit with a potent stench of risk.

 

W Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins: It is tough to project anything but a top-line role for Marchard heading into the season. Obviously, it may not play out that way, as his chemistry — or at least familiarity — with Patrice Bergeron might keep him away from David Krejci, and Krejci will likely see the most offensively friendly minutes. Still, Marchand will see more than 16:54 minutes per game next year, and is there a better candidate to lead the team in goals? 30 tallies in the column are within reach, and Marchand is a cross-category beast.

 

W Craig Smith, Nashville Predators: He's been a popular topic this summer because of his new deal. The fact he only averaged 15:44 minutes per game was a bit shocking. He could add as many as two minutes per game and five shifts. Smith is versatile and a high-volume shooter. His ice-time total was shockingly low, and fantasy owners should bank on a reasonable to large jump in production across all categories.

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W Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning: With just 14:57 minutes per game last season, Kucherov was able to post 29 goals and 65 points. While there isn't a lot of room for offensive growth goals and assists — face it, that was an outrageous season from the line — his peripheral statistics are bound to receive a boost with more minutes. After all, Kucherov averaged a full two minutes more of ice time in the playoffs (16:59 per game).

 

There are plenty of others worth discussing, but these were the numbers which jumped out.

 

***

 

Here is a quick-hit recap of a few of the latest happenings around the league:

The Philadelphia Flyers aren't in a hurry to re-sign pending restricted free agent Brayden Schenn. I'm sure Schenn isn't in a hurry to be paid based on his production thus far, either. There is more offensive upside than he has shown. Another step forward can be expected from Schenn.

The real question is where the floor and ceiling are. It is safe to suggest Schenn will continue to produce approximately 20 goals and 50 points for the foreseeable future, but is there a 30-65 ceiling?

The 2015-16 season will go a long way in proving how good Schenn is, and after disappointing last year, he should come at a modest price for fantasy folks.

 

***

 

Marcus Johansson was award a one-year, $3.75 million contract in his arbitration case with the Washington Capitals. Interestingly, and without contradicting myself, I would say Johansson is worth every penny and not a penny more.

The jury is still out with this guy, very much the same way it is with Schenn, which is why they're both looking at new negotiations after the season. Johansson is a solid two-way winger who can skate. He doesn’t have high-end offensive skills, and he doesn't shoot enough, but he is capable of filling a top-six role.

The question is whether Johansson can flourish as a second-line winger?

 

***

 

Enjoy your weekend, folks.

 

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