Saturday, Aug. 22

Neil Parker

2015-08-22

NHL Draft - USA Today Sports Images

 

A from-the-hip ramblings session with more Anders Lee and fantasy hockey draft talk …

 

 

In the comments of yesterday's ramblings, Anders Lee's multi-sport prowess was mentioned. Here is a great article on Lee from 2009. I highly recommend reading it.

Multi-sport athletes garner an extra checkmark in my books. Not in the sense that it boosts their fantasy value, but just that you know you're dealing with an extremely gifted athlete who comes by their skills naturally. Sure it is all cliché, but in a our fake game, there isn't a lot of variance in competitive leagues. Take an edge wherever you can.

Gifted athletes make it look easy, and while admittedly I've mainly only seen highlights, Lee makes garbage goals look easy. He was a quarterback and a pitcher, so it isn't surprising he owns sweet mitts down low. Lee is also a load to move in front of and around the net, and he is capable of scoring with a defender draped all over him.

Following up on Mike's point from yesterday, while it'll obviously help to play with John Tavares, Lee is going to score regardless. He flashes a finesse game at times, but he is at his best when he establishes himself around the net, and with his skill set, the only way he slumps is if he stops going there.

As far as Lee's fantasy stock for next season, count me as a buyer. Goals are incredibly difficult to come by, especially in deeper formats.

Unfortunately, Lee is currently listed as a center-only player at Yahoo, which is extremely annoying to start the season. How long before it is adjusted is a serious concern and potential deal breaker on draft day. Lee is nothing more than a fringe center in the majority of formats.

He is currently ranked 146 at both ESPN and Yahoo. With winger eligibility, that is steal territory, but without it, he is very mediocre.

 

***

 

The position eligibility shortcoming for fantasy hockey is extremely aggravating.

I recommend using just wingers, and not differentiating between right and left. Using just forwards is too shallow because typical fringe centers have higher floors and ceilings than their respective tiered wingers.

Run your league however you want, obviously, but the lack of clarity surrounding a site's positional eligibility remains annoying, right?

 

***

 

Now that there are rankings it is a lot easier to identify potential values and craft some initial strategies. I've got a string of three ramblings over the next four nights, so it'll be fun to dig into some things that stick out and throw out some ideas Monday and Tuesday.

 

***

 

I went looking for an old fantasy baseball article I wrote about top-300 lists to share. I can't find it, though. It was for the site supporting this book.

Anyway, the point of the tip was to beware of relying on the provided top-300 list. In online drafts, everyone has the same rankings in front of them, and they're going to be drawn to follow those rankings to varying degrees.

It is critical to have a strong grasp on where your personal rankings/preferences vary. Just because the default rankings have Anders Lee at 146, doesn't mean you should wait until Round 12 to draft him. Instead, if he is a priority, target him in to 10th or 11th round, for example.

After all, the default rankings are usually trash, especially in hockey. The advantage comes, and especially in hockey, in utilizing your own solid — and tiered — rankings. You're aware of the list the majority of your competitors are leaning on, too, so it is a huge advantage.

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A quick side story … Thursday, I participated in an industry fantasy football auction. It was full of analysts, and it seemed like no one was prepared for the interface we were using and some were asking questions about the settings. I'm not here to say I aced the auction, but I arrived in time to tinker with the draft interface and read the rules.

This happens all the time in industry leagues, which is the No. 1 no-no many preach if you want to succeed in fantasy sports. My point is that if this is happening in competitive formats, it is happening in the majority of leagues.

In information-overloaded 2015, knowing the differences between default rankings and your own is an advantage. After all, even if it used as nothing more than a checklist, who wants their personal draft list readily available for everyone else to see? That is what relying on the default rankings does.

It is like being able to see your opponent's cards, albeit to a lesser extreme.

There are a lot of people can play competitively by just showing up and going through the motions based on their general fantasy knowledge. So hat tip, but they're probably three-sport athletes, too.

Also, I realize not everyone creates their own rankings, which is why I mentioned preferences. If you're not creating your own draft list, at least queue up a number of players you like for your next three or four picks. Jotting them down on a piece of paper isn't a bad idea, either.

 

***

 

I'm not here to cut up rankings from major sites. I'm not even saying I'm better at it. I'm just saying the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker finished with a 66.9 percent accuracy rating, according to FantasyPros.com.

They don't even have a way to measure accuracy for fantasy hockey, but you can bet, if they did, 50 percent would be a sterling score. Don't rely on default rankings, you need to aim higher.

 

***

 

To further illustrate the point I'm trying to present, here is another quick tale.

In an industry mock draft last season, I selected Jonathan Toews 43rd overall as the 16th overall center off the board. He fell because ESPN had him ranked in the 1000s. I realized this when comparing my rankings, and I waited on him. I suspect, potentially, I could have waited longer, too.

Again, this isn't a poke at anyone. It is just an example of why a little extra work and paying attention will always pay off. As much as we love fantasy hockey, it remains a low-priority in fantasy sports. Fantasy golf is now likely fourth on the depth chart.

Nothing against fantasy hockey, either, obviously, it just doesn't receive the attention, and that opens another avenue to take advantage and separate you from your competition.

 

***

 

I realize this hasn't been a typical rambling session.

However, in my experience people don't pay attention to their league settings close enough, and they don't consider how those settings should impact their draft strategies. They rely on the default rankings too heavily, and it opens up an advantage for those who don't.

We're all trying to win, after all, right?

 

 

8 Comments

  1. wotan 2015-08-22 at 08:28

    Thanks for this solid article!

    I have to mention it though: lately the ramblings have often become more of a "random article of the day" without the bits of information about several players that I've enjoyed over the years. I don't blame anyone if you push forward one main aspect about fantasy hockey and I can imagine how hard it must be to find something new every day. It's just that it's not the ramblings as they used to be any more.

    I also understand that there are days with little news, but then again you were able to keep it up even during the lockout. I hope this doesn't sound disrespectful, but some of these articles are simply not as interesting for veteran fantasy GMs, because everyone has figured out most of these points after several years as an active GM. And I think most people on this page are veterans and not greenhorns, so they'd rather have short bits of news than a longer article in the ramblings.

    Just my two cents about a tendency that I thought to have observed though… All in all I simply love your page and the insight you provide.
     

    • lcbtd 2015-08-22 at 12:57

      Agreed wotan though that sentiment has been brought up half a dozen times already and yet article-style ramblings continue. 

      Perhaps it is the lack of "news" at this time of year but you are right, I remember lockout ramblings better than what we've seen lately. 

      Once pre-season starts, hopefully ramblings will become ramblings again.

  2. Lorraine Theriault 2015-08-22 at 11:07

    Well said,,woton .

    Sorry god.

  3. Jim Pappas 2015-08-22 at 12:54

    I would love to see a "section" or maybe routine post about Auction Style drafts and leagues.

    IMO, a lot of this revolves around "personal feelings" for the value of a player, but I have always enjoyed hearing/reading about strategies when trying to place a dollar amount on a player.  The league I run always over-values a position or a name from year to year, but what I think is super interesting is the topics that come from the draft spending through the the year, such as:

    1.trade value

    2.spending for a stat

    3.positions in demand

    4.unwise spending

    i've grown to like the daily article, and I know this time of the year is tough.  Everyone does a nice job when talking about relevant fantasy topics in accordance to what's happening with the players, but I've always felt there was a lack of attention to auction-style and salary capped leagues.

  4. Neil Parker 2015-08-22 at 14:20

    After the news search yesterday, all I found was Mats Zuccarello is expected to be ready for training camp.

    I guess I could have added that and said he is high-floor, low-ceiling winger who chips in across categories. He is a solid endgame target in the majority of seasonal leagues, and especially helpful if you've taken a risky path through the draft early.

    There was also some expansion news, but we've beat that horse here already this summer and it has no immediate fantasy impact.

    Darryl Sydor was arrested. Dobber touched on Nik Antropov earlier this week.

    Marian Hossa celebrated with the Stanley Cup.

    Dobber mentioned this earlier, too, it is extremely difficult to write these ramblings with nothing to draw from, and there is nothing more I'd love to do than quick-hit analysis on all kinds of topics.

    Feedback noted, thanks for taking the time to read and respond.

    • garrett neilly 2015-08-22 at 19:05

      I'm usually surprised theres anything to ramble about considering the lack of news thats going on. Good on you guys for finding something to talk about.

  5. Karlos El Taco Piquante 2015-08-23 at 04:34

    Id like to see a ramblings devote to deftones.

  6. Cal Growette 2015-08-23 at 21:24

    Nice work Neil.  I really enjoy your articles and your analytical style.  Will you be writing for RotoWire also again this year?  Your articles on Daily games were very helpful…

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