Tuesday, Aug. 25

Neil Parker

2015-08-25

Paul Stastny - USA Today Sports Images

 

It isn't Tuukka time, Ehlers talk, a case for Stastny and Setoguchi will receive a look with Toronto …

 

For starters, here are three articles from the Dobber team over at Puck Daddy.

Ranking Rookies from Brendan.

Sleepers to Target from Josh.

Goalie Tiers from Dobber.

Show some love and jump over there to check out the goods.

 

***

 

Is anyone buying into Tuukka Rask this season?

I currently have him ranked as the 15th goalie. You can bash me in the comments, it's cool. If everyone agreed, it wouldn't be a very fun game, would it?

On paper, the Boston Bruins look awful, especially on the blue line and offensively. Yet, for some reason, Rask will likely be confused with an elite fantasy goalie.

He won't be.

Fantasy sports are all about looking ahead, and Rask has regressed in three consecutive seasons. Now, he'll start behind the worst Bruins team in a long time.

Seriously, look at their defense corps.

Here are the rankings for Rask: Third at CBS, sixth at Yahoo and 13th at ESPN.

Dobber placed Rask in Tier 2, in the above linked article. What he added was the goalies in the second tier have the upside to climb into the top tier, but they have the floor to drop a tier.

On the heels of his career-worst season and starting behind the worst group of skaters in his career, it would be foolish to count on Rask returning to top-tier billing.

And this is in no way a talent assessment. It is entirely about his supporting cast.

 

***

 

Look for beat writers to begin preparing team previews over the next few weeks, and some have already started.

Ken Wiebe took a peek at what the Winnipeg Jets might look like on opening day.

There aren't a lot of surprises, as Winnipeg didn't do much this offseason. They didn't really need to.

What did stick out, was his suggestion that Drew Stafford will likely join Bryan Little and Andrew Ladd, while Mathieu Perreault and Blake Wheeler would flank Mark Scheifele to comprise the two top lines.

The belief is Nikolaj Ehlers will begin lower on the depth chart to shelter his minutes. It is a real-world take, and one which should help put our expectations for Ehlers in a better context.

There are no easy games in the Western Conference, outside of cakewalks against the Arizona Coyotes, and Winnipeg is in a position to have an excellent season. There is no reason to rush Ehlers, and limiting his tough minutes to ease him into the season makes sense.

We all love the idea of Ehlers grabbing a top-six role immediately, but Stafford is more than capable, and going straight from the QMJHL to the show is rare. A return similar to Jonathan Drouin's rookie season might be a best-case scenario for Ehlers.

Temper your expectations with Ehlers initially. He'll likely be overvalued this fall and dropped at some point before the New Year. A speculative grab for a strong second half could pay off, though.

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It is just extremely difficult to count on week-in, week-out production from a rookie, especially when they'll likely be on the outside of a top-six role looking in.

Paul Maurice doesn't care about our fantasy teams.

This also serves as an endorsement to crank Stafford up a tier or two in your rankings likely. I've currently got him pegged as my 39th right winger, when I sit down to re-crunch, sliding Stafford up a few pegs might be in order.

He presents the perfect example of targeting a floor instead of a ceiling. I'm all for shooting for the stars and targeting upside late. However, if your first two right wingers are Mark Stone and David Pastrnak, making Stafford a late-round selection is a low-risk move.

In fact, I just slide him ahead of similar low-upside, decent-floor right wingers Justin Williams and Loui Eriksson. You can put Ryan Callahan and Troy Brouwer into this boring-veteran tier, too.

 

***

 

Jeremy Rutherford discussed a pair of depth players for the St. Louis Blues Monday.

Dmitrij Jaskin has a shot at a top-six role, as Rutherford posits the potential for a David Backes-centered checking line with Patrik Berglund and Troy Brouwer flanking the captain.

Utilizing such a checking line would present an opportunity for Jaskin to receive a scoring role. Still, casting the team captain in a clear defensive role is easier for a beat writer to suggest in August than it actually is for a head coach to implement a month into the season.

Backes is 100 percent off my fantasy radar this season, and he has been a key cog to a number of my best fantasy teams over the past few seasons. There comes a time, though.

The biggest beneficiary of Backes shifting down the depth chart wouldn't be Jaskin, either. It would be Paul Stastny. Stastny with Alexander Steen or Vladimir Tarasenko by his side would elevate the pivot's upside significantly.

Under utilized in Year 1, Stastny should present sneaky upside this fall in drafts. The Blues rarely deployed him with the right weapons last season, as his most frequent linemates were Berglund and Jaskin.

Stastny is currently ranked as the 105th skater at ESPN, No. 201 overall at Yahoo and the 40th center at CBS. I apologize for the random presentation of Stastny's consensus ranking, but we have to deal with what we're given. He currently stands outside my top-150 rankings, as my 46th-ranked center.

Jori Lehtera's health is a big part of the equation, too. Still, it would be shocking to see Stastny cast outside the top-two lines consistently this season. Even with his most-frequent linemates being a hindrance to his offense, Stastny scored 46 points last season.

With adequate wingers, 20 goals and 55 points are Stastny's floor, so draft accordingly.

The second player Rutherford discussed was defenseman Petteri Lindbohm who Rutherford expects to replace Barret Jackman. Lindbohm shouldn't be counted on to tip the scales in fantasy leagues, unless you're throwing down with 29 other teams.

However, what is important, in terms of Lindbohm, is he shouldn't bring down the club in any way. He has been brought along somewhat slowly, and had a successful season for the Chicago Wolves in the American Hockey League and a cup of coffee with the Blues after a two seasons in the SM-liiga.

While it likely won't be viewed as an immediate upgrade from Jackman, it won't be the opposite, either. Similar to Jackman, Lindbohm will chip in a few penalty minutes, and his surroundings might help him in the plus/minus department, too. So, while you're not going to be rostering Lindbohm in the majority of leagues, he could turn out to be a solid play in daily games.

 

***

 

The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed Devin Setoguchi to a professional tryout, and Setoguchi will have a shot to crack the club during training camp.

It is unlikely to return a big splash, both in the real and fake game, but considering David Booth and Mason Raymond have been able to flash fantasy value with Toronto, it isn't out of the question to think Setoguchi could push the needle slightly.

Don't draft him, though, well unless your club in a 30-team league is really in a desperate spot. Although, I guess it all could change if Setoguchi landed on a line with James van Riemsdyk or Nazem Kadri.

It is another no-risk transaction from Toronto with the potential to take an afterthought and turn him into an asset or draft pick.

 

 

10 Comments

  1. Dikoi 2015-08-25 at 13:47

    Good stuff today Neil.  I'll have to keep an eye on Statsny's situation now, he really wasn't on my radar at all.

  2. striker777 2015-08-25 at 14:04

    Neil.

    Yet again I have an issue with your assumptions. Actually I have an issue with assumptions period. I look to quantitive data. Statistical information & extrapolate as best possible, leaning to the past performance more than my opinion of the future. If I knew the future I'd be rich. Oh wait!

    I don't like what Boston did either shipping out Hamilton, although I liked the Lucic trade. His skills were diminishing & there was no hope Boston could resign him in a cap stagnanat world. No way Boston is worse than last season. Worst case scenario their about the same, just missing the playoffs & Rask finished 9th in wins last season with 34 & 9th in save% .922 for starters. I included Anderson, Ottawa's starter even though he only played 35 games, as he is their starter but neither Hammond or Talbot who were back ups last season.

    In the last 10 games of the season last year, played with out Hamilton for all 10, Connolly for 5; games 72 thru 76, & Campbell & Talbot,; games 76 thru 82, due to injury. Boston went 5-3-2 playing 6 road games & 4 home games. They played TB twice both in TB, Was, NYR, Anh, Det, Flo twice, Car & Tor. Only 2 easy teams. Every other team made the playoffs & are the power houses of the east, except for Flo who was a very good team going 38-29-15.

    If not for Krejci's injury last & Boston being devistated with injury's on D last season, Chara 19 games lost, Hamilton 10, McQuad 19 & Miller 41, Boston would have been significantly better. Factor in that 2 of their best players down the stretch last season were just rookies who barely played prior & were instrumental in them finishing the season strongly in Spooner & Pastrnak who formed a fabulous scoring line with Lucic, not to mention Rask was exceptional in all but 2 of those last 10 games.

    I break goalies into tier's as well. 1 to 10, 11 to 20 & 21 to 30. Rask makes the 1st tier. Like Schneider he steals wins as he's an elite goalie. Schneider makes tier 2 as NJ is good aweful. Boston has changed but they aren't good aweful. They have started a rebuild & are significantly younger. Gone are Lucic, Hamilton, Paille & Campbell. In are Belesky, Hayes, Rinaldo, Irwin & a ton of prospects. Kelly slides from 3rd line winger to 4th line C. An up grade for me. Spooner moves to #3 C & he & Patrnak take on significantly greater roles & responsibilities on offense. Belesky, Hayes, Pastrnak, Spooner & Connolly more than make up for the lost offense of Lucic & Smith.

     

    Lossing Hamilton hurts but Bostons top 5 D are solid & granted Lucic is getting on in years but over the last 3 seasons he's being transitioned into more defensive responsiblities & Krug & Hamilton were taking over the offensive 1's. I assume with Hamilton gone Chara will see some more PP time again but I think Boston most likely goes to a 4 forward 1 D formation on both the 1st & 2nd units like they did down the stretch last season when Hamilton went down. When playing, Irwin, Trotman & Morrow will all see nominal power playtime & Irwin could surprise. He's still young by NHL standards but has offense skills & Coiln Miller should be ready to step up after the All-Star break if injuries don't dictate him arriving sooner. His offensive skills are solid & he's well developed having played to seasons in the AHL for Manchester.

    If I'm picking a goalie in a system based on wins & shutouts I take Rask in the top 10. Right around 8 or 9. If it accounts for goals against & minutes played, I take him a little sooner. I have no confidence in Halak's ability to stay healthy to get a sufficient # of starts to beat Rask in wins & Andersen's #'s have been below average on a great team & I'm not convinced he can get enough starts over Khudobin to beat Rask in wins. I see both Halak & Andersen in or around 50 starts if all goes well. Rask will play 70.

    Thoughts from the bench.

    • Neil Parker 2015-08-25 at 14:24

      Like I said, it wouldn't be a very fun game if we all agreed.

      It'll be fun to see how it plays out.

    • Ryan Taylor 2015-08-25 at 21:06

      Just as an FYI, extrapolating quantitative data is itself making an assumption. That is, you're making the assumption that previous trends will continue.  What that same assumption makes is "all things being equal.  Just wanted to clarify your first sentence to make sure you realize you're making as many assumptions as Neil is, potenitially more.

    • L Pat 2015-08-25 at 21:38

      Great analysis as well Striker. Definitely enjoy the different points of view. Also, it seems that you follow the Bruins (based on this reply).

      My trepidation with Boston lie around Krejci’s ability to stay healthy in any season going forward, as well as the strength of the Atlantic division. To me, other than Toronto, all the teams will be improved this season (MTL should be about the same). Boston’s youth will have to make some sizable strides to mitigate these hurdles.

  3. striker777 2015-08-25 at 14:19

    I appreciate Rutherford's statements but I'll go with Armstrong's & Hitchcock's 1st. Both have discussed Backes returning to RW moving Stastny to the #1 or #2 spot depending upon your opinion of which is the 1st or 2nd line. That means something like this.

     

    Steen, Stastny, Backes.

    Schwartz, Lehtera, Tarasenko.

    Jaskin, Berglund, Brouwer.

    Ott, Brodziak, Reaves.

    Spare Caron.

    If Lehtera can't start the season then Backes probably moves back to C short term. Regardless StL has numerious options at C as Ott has played C, Berglund was & will most likely be a C again if Backes does in fact move to RW a position he played significantly in the past.

  4. JF Bessette 2015-08-25 at 16:13

    I hope Ehlers doesn't get burn like Grigorenko did.

  5. Trevor Czerwinski 2015-08-25 at 19:27

    Good job Neil. It is refreshing to actually have an intlligent hockey article In August.

  6. Neil Parker 2015-08-25 at 23:36

    A lot of great feedback, and Striker's take was very insightful.

    Thanks folks, the bad news is you're stuck with me again tomorrow.

  7. Dave Hoper 2015-08-26 at 16:59

    I don't disagree with you that Boston has taken a significant step back on defense, but I think maybe we're devaluing Tuuka too much now.  Last year was supposedly a bad year for him and he still put up a .922 sv% and 2.30 GAA with 30+ wins.  Top – 10 in most important categories.  Also I'm not sure what you mean by regressing in 3 straight seasons — before last year he was more or less plateaued for 3 years with elite numbers betwen .929-.930 sv% and 2.00-2.05 GAA.  I can't see how he's not a top-10 fantasy goalie in most formats and outside of last year I don't see any downward trend.  At the very least, I'd take him over my Bobrovsky, that's for sure.

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