| Top 300 Players |
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| Written by Dobber | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sunday, 25 February 2007 15:45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Not much movement in September...
Please read: These rankings only capture keeper leagues that are points-only, do not factor positions and do involve the playoffs. That covers about 30% of the leagues out there. Because there are so many different league types, one cannot satisfy them all with a single list. Factors taken into account: predicted points for the current season; age; upside; proven/unproven; team bonus (if your league does not count the postseason, simply subtract 0 to 7 rating points off of that player, depending on how strong his team is); proneness to injury; and the "name" factor (if it's a big name, he gets a few extra bonus due to the trade value boost).
Please ease up on criticizing for: 1) Player A being ranked 10 spots above Player B when their "rating" is only 6.5 apart. Two players within 10 rating points are pretty much a wash and an argument can be made for either. 2) A defenseman (for example) who is great for penalty minutes and points being ranked so low. That is valuable in your league, but not for the league I described above (read "Please read" above).
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Comments (61)
Jon Dey
said:
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WOW.... really going off the board with some of these, it seems. I don't know the formula, but I am guess gut feeling is trumping formula in a lot of instances. Some are affect by injuries I understand, but damn. Again, I think I use these as a decent basis, and not as scripture. I advise all of you to do the same. Dobber will get you started by you have to disagree a lot of the time. He may claim to be right 52% of the time, but 48% is a big number too. |
Dobber
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... Mabus - if we were in the same pool, you would make a good trade partner. We disagree on this. I'm not a big Lecavalier fan, but I have a healthy respect for what he did three years ago and I acknowledge all his recent injuries. Are they behind him for next season? I believe so. Did he finally find a linemate? I believe so. The rankings are just my belief on players to help my readers get a leg up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I'm gambling that I am right and it will win me the pool if I am. |
Mabus
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... I know you like stats but were smart not to become a stock analyst. Your attitude on some guys like Lecavalier is the classic - I'm losing money, but I'd rather go down with the ship than admit defeat. I can think of a few instances where you were the last guy on the ship (I think I was commenting the same way about Kariya last year at this time). In a points only keeper, choosing Lecavalier over Stamkos seems crazy to me. Very crazy. It's in the same ballpark as Tavares over Kane - kind of crazy. You said I was crazy last year when I said Stamkos would get more points than Tavares - and it wasn't even close. This year I'm sure I'll catch the same flack for saying Stamkos will get 15+ more points than Vinny, but I'll still stick by it anyway. Mabus |
Dobber
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... Fantasy Guide - this year These Rankings - keeper INCLUDING PLAYOFFS. Big changes every August, as I said in the intro. August is the month where I audit each and every variable on the chart. The April-July rankings are the least reliable, and the August rankings are the reliable. (I should copy and paste this speech next August - the newcomers always make the same comments LOL) |
DeadSkinMask
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... Why did Jamie Benn drop 38 spots?? Look at all the bums that rank ahead of him? Anyone? I don't get it.... |
torrock
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grrrr Our protected lists are due by August 1st ... I protected Mueller (ranked 56th) over Eberle (ranked 126th) A day later I saw the August update: Eberle jumped 87 spots to 38th overall ... Mueller dropped 13 spots to 69th OUCH!!! What a difference a month makes |
Derrek
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Hossa vs Lecav. Well I'm hoping that you're wrong and Hossa does well... but I recently traded Boyes and Lecavelier to get Hossa and Pavelski. If your predictions are right i lose out in points on this trade... How can Hossa be ranked higher than Lecav here if you think theres a 20 point difference this year?!!? Oh and Lecav is a year younger. Or these rankings mean nothing? and i should have just waited for the guide? some insight on the difference would be appreciated. |
PuckOff
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Frolik vs. B. Ryan Hey Dobber, just wondering- You have Frolik and Bobby Ryan dangerously close. I have a post on this in the forums... How would you view them as trade value long term? It is a tough call, as Ryan is proven but I see great stuff out of Frolik. Very similar play styles as well. Could you elaborate on your views for these two? |
Dean Read
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Erik Christensen Did he sign in Europe or something? Does the MZA signing really push him that far down there depth charts? I quite enjoyed the points he put up for me down the stretch at next to no cost and am considering keeping him if he signs for dirt cheap again next year. (20 team, 12-15 forwards per team, salary cap unlimited keeper league) |
Claudio
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Voracek I can't believe he is so high. Should I go after him in my 2 pools even if im in contention to win again this year?? |
Martin
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Joe Who?? and Jamie Benn Shouldn't Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski get switched on this board for the playoffs?? haha How is Tyler Bozak and Tyler Ennis ahead of Jamie Benn?? He scored 20+ goals in his rookie year.. Ennis only played 3 regular season games and Bozak didn't even get in for half a season. Are the roles these two going to play going to equal that many more pts. next year than what Benn is going to do in Dallas?? I thought his progress this year was very similar to Neal in his rookie year and look forward to a similar 2nd season (hopefully without the 2nd half drop out). |
mike hess
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keeper league thoughts loved the rankings, especially the move of new talent into the middle...My issue is with the logic that suggests I would keep Ollie Jokinen 62 when I can have stewart at 63, Raymond at 79, Jussi at 86, Clowe at 105. I had Ollie early and dropped him early due to poor point output. I would not keep him again until he returned to a more consistent point per game player. You taught me a few years ago it is about points and not rankings. Every year I drop the inconsistent and injury prone old guard to take a gamble on new potentials. |
Dobber
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... Jake - that shocked me as well. Funny enough, that was the first thing that jumped out at me. But let's call a spade a spade - Vanek has now gone three years in a row without getting to 65 points. Meanwhile, Connolly's injury rating I bumped up from a 5.0 (the worst) to a 4.5 - congrats to him for getting in so many games (ironically he's hurt now lol). That did the trick. Rossi - Detroit's massive run of late boosted their playoff value of all players, adding about three ratings points to each of them. Nyqvist was going up regardless though. Renegade - Gionta's value will reset after the playoffs and we again look ahead to next year. The injury hurt. |
Jake
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Never Thought I'd see the day where Vanek is below Connolly on the list. Not saying I disagree, but just shocking to see that from you Dobber. Shows how low Vanek's value is right now. |
Rossi
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Detroit Benefits Huge Interesting that 5 of the 8 TOP INCREASERS for April come from the Detroit Red Wings. What gives? Is detroit cleaning house? Clearly Kronwall ccoming back from injury is one reason and Nyquist winning (speculate) the Hobey Baker helps. I love how Jussi is literally on top of Olli Jokinen. |
Renegade
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Gionta Huge increase in the April rankings? Definitely does not deserve a at 133. Personally, I would have him around the high 70s/low 80s. |
Palmofluv
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Nevermind Stamkos The fact that Lecavallier is still in the top 10 is mind boggling. |
Mike Terrion
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... I love the Dobber rankings, but I just don't understand how he can justify such a high ranking for Tavares. Junior numbers are pretty much irrelevant when trying to determine what a kid can do in the show. And it's premature to think he can emulate what Stamkos has done this year. Tavares has size and skating issues... Stammer didn't have those - even when he struggled last season. |
Ed
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... The highest Hemsky was rated #18 for Jan '09 and Nov '08. FYI - I have data that goes back to Jan '08 |
Rossi
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Hemsky - Former Ranking I know that Ales Hemsky (last season) used to be ranked pretty high on the Top 300 Forwards list. I was wondering if anyone could remember or tell me how high Hemsky was at one point and what place you think he'd be in if he was healthy and playing this season. maybe there should be a column that lists the highest rank that player has ever reached - that would be interesting. Cheers |
Andrew - duducks
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Wash the Semin off your face Where would you rank a 25 year old who is putting up his second season of 100 point pace hockey. Let's add that he's in the top 15 in scoring despite missing 9 games. I expect Semin to be top 10 in scoring next year, while only playing 72 games. He'll be in a UFA season, expecting to move to a new team. Meanwhile, (to pick on one of the dozen players I think Semin should be ranked higher than) Marleau has played 9 more games to get 1 less point, is 5 years older, and is a UFA now who will likely move to a weaker situation, is ranked 20 points (11 ranks) higher. Your rankings are my Fantasy Hockey bible Dobber, but I think it's time to make the top 15 rated R, and add a little Semin. |
Patrick
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Non-Playoff list Dobber - love this list and would be interested to see a similar list that did not include playoffs. Is this something you could easily produce by just taking the playoff value out of the formula as I think there are a lot (if not the majority) of leagues out there that do not count playoffs. |
Dobber
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... Lecavalier has 26 points in his last 22 games and you still say stuff like that? Funny! Just run your team as if Lecavalier is ranked 50th. Simply ignore him on this list. I'll run my team to this list and I recommend others do as well. You come here for my opinion (I hope) and I'm giving it. He is a Top 7 keeper player for points. |
Oilers rock 99
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Vinny Dobbs , Vinny is no longer a top 20 guy I would struggle in taking him in a keeper leauge before anyone in the top 20 time to slide him down to reality and forget what he did a couple YEARS ago |
Dobber
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... Fleischmann - 12 points in his last 13 games Vinny - After seeing what he did three years ago, I am hesitant to bring his upside down from 120 points. And that's what is keeping him up there. I don't see Zach Parise ever hitting that number. There's you difference. Doesn't help that Lemaire will keep Parise under 85 points this year (and in the end, that will only beat Vinny by 10 at the most). Spezza - finally took a big hit, though his injury had most of the impact. Horton - has more points this year than Frolik and in the end will have about 15 more. Upside is only part of it. "Here and now" is another factor. |
santa
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Frolik You have Frolik pegged for 90pts and Horton 85 yet you have Horton ahead of Frolik in the rankings. I'm confused. |
bball
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... Dobber, Just curious as to your assessment of Spezza and Vinny. At some point in time, they have to drop in your ratings. Parise has shown for the past two years that he is legit and Kane is still a pup and producing at an incredibly rate for his position and age. And yet, two guys that have produced pretty much nothing over the past two years (I have noticed as I have had them both years...YIKES!!!) are ahead of these two guys. I realize that Vinny is scoring at a pretty good clip this year but Spezza did nothing last year and even less this year and is not showing any signs of breaking back out of this funk. Help me to understand. Thanks Dobber |
mike hess
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Fleischmann I think you need to him drop farther and not move him up 22 spots. He has been falling off quickly since his hot run with the return or top 6 forwards. The only reason not to is if you expect him to continue to do well even with Ovie, first line and second line now back from injuries. Even when WA scores 7 he is not in the mix. Mike |
Rad64
said:
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Ups and Downs Wow, that's one of the biggest adjustments I've seen in a while. Very interesting. |
Dobber
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... Hey Jerry - just posted the update and now I see your Gaborik note. He budged, (completely unprompted by your comment - just had to be clear on that  ) It's very hard to budge an inch when you are already in the Top 50. However, it is very easy to budge many inches the further down the list you are. A player 33rd can gain three ratings points and not move up a single spot, whereas a player ranked 350th can go up 100 spots on three ratings points. So check the ratings - and not the rankings. |
Jerry
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... Interesting to see if Dobber gives any respect to Gaborik in the next update. He didn't budge Gaborik up an inch after his killer October. Yet I bet the permanently injured Eric Fehr skyrockets in the next update. |
Alain Brosseau
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Tomas Holmstrom I dont see him on list, i think he deserves to be in top 300. What you think? |
Dobber
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... Thanks for the continued comments guys, and being polite about them to boot haha. Tavares vs. Stamkos - both will get equal points. Both on similar weak teams. Both are similar in age. The difference here is upside - Tavares 120+ points vs. Stammer at 105 or so. Kariya - You are correct. I tried to fidget with the variables in the formula for him, but honestly couldn't knock him down any further. I do believe he will get 70 or 75 points this year, despite his start. But regardless, I wouldn't knock a player ranked 30th down to 100th in a single month unless he got hurt. Filatov - Incorrect on this one. One of just 20 players, give or take, with 100-plus upside. Too priceless to give up. Clarkson - my oversight. I've added him to the template for next month. He would fall in around 156. Thanks for this. |
Mabus
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Kariya and Filatov Hey Dobber, It feels like you are being stubborn on Kariya and Filatov. Both seem to be greatly overvalued here. |
MLG
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Clarkson why no love for David Clarkson? he's not even ranked. several think he's this years Backes and so far he's done well. |
DeadSkinMask
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... Tavares is up at #18, but you have Stamkos all the way down at #42? O_o I fail to understand this logic. Do you really think there is that big of gap between the two? For my money, I'll take Stamkos this year, and based on the way he looks so far, I'd feel safe taking him over Tavares 2 or 3 years. After that, they should have similar numbers for years to come. I've never questioned you in the comment section, but this one just punched me in the face when I saw it, and had to ask. Cheers, and Keep up the good work. |
Dobber
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... Keith - Kovy will never get 120 points. The Big 3 could and in my opinion should get to 150 when they hit their prime. There's your difference. You can't put a price on stacking so many points into one roster spot. Oiler's Rock - Ribeiro - yes. O'Sullivan - yes. Staal - in my pools with my rules (i.e. playoffs count) YES. Lupul - no. Frolov - no. But I don't go through all 700 players on my list and manually give my opinion one by one every month. I use a formula so my own bias is kept out of these rankings as much as possible. Also don't go by where they rank, but go by what their RATING is. So if the difference between Player A (40th) and Player B (70th) is 5.5 rating points, then they are virtually the same and as I've said before - not worth arguing over. |
Oilers rock 99
said:
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would you really?? Dobber, Dobber,Dobber, would you really take..... Antoine Vermette(91), Stephen Weiss(79), Joffrey Lupul(6  , Jordan Staal(57), Alexander Frolov(52), Patrick O'Sullivan(41), Mike Ribeiro(29), Before Loui Eriksson(9?? would you really trade any of thoose guys straight up for Loui Eriksson?? |
Keith
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why so far??? why would kovalchuk be so far behind the big 3 in point rating system ?? kovy was only 12 pts back of crosby and other stats are very close as well so what gives is there really a 250 pt diffrence?? compare the little drop off in pts between kovy and Vincent Lecavalier yet there is only 12 ranling pts between them can you explain further?? |
madiba72
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Patrick O'Sullivan Over-rated He would never be in my top 40. Hes 25 yrs old now, so if he was going to do something signicant he would have done it by now. Im dropping him from my keeper list in favour of some younger guys that that might actually do somehting significant (Voracek, Oshie, Okposo, Horton) |
RoughEmUp
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Colin Wilson? Not listed. Oversight? I suppose JVR might become interested now that he is in the NHL, but Wilson thoroughly outplayed him for two seasons in Hockey East. Like the addition of Nyquist here- He looked really slick last year and could a POY favorite in Hockey East this coming year. |
tmlpowerplay
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... Hey dobber why no love for Wheeler? Especially with Krejci & Kessel on the IR for a while. I thought he had a decent rookie campaign. I see in the guide you have him on the 4th line. |
lanky522
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... Hey dobber... i know this is an indication of "typical value" in keeper leagues... but unless you're including pitiful novice pools in this calculation, do you really think that tavares warrants being a top 30 player before he's even played a game? I mean seriously... you have him ranked higher than toews, mike green, vanek, hossa, briere... the list goes on and on... I wouldn't trade any one of those guys straight up for tavares at this point in time. And on the flip side, if i owned tavares, and i was offered any of those guys for him straight up, i'd take the deal without thinking twice. When you consider that these rankings include playoffs too, it just seems kind of inappropriate to have his "value" that high at this point. Because anyone that isn't a fantasy novice would likely take the more established guys ranked behind him first any day of the week. |
Dobber
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... I explained in the first note - these aren't rises or drops. These are market corrections. Players are where they should be now. |
sircountalot
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... Pronger at 217, Coburn at 229, but no love for Timonen? Wow...I'm surprised, talk about flying under the radar. |
chimp82x
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... Buck0198: They look like the largest rank increase, largest rank decrease, and new additions. |
dcarrbaby
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... Kariya at 32, no way. There is some big moves, not the typical safe adjustments to the rankings. |
buck0198
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hmmm? What are the little segments after the top 300? They are like 10,7,6 players long...what are they supposed to represent? |
ross10019
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... Dobber, why the precipitous drop for Clowe? I am now wondering whether I should keep Plekanec over Clowe in my keeper league (points only). |
Slantman
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Kovalchuk I was in the car the other day thinking about hockey as usual. I was trying to come up with who I'd take over Kovalchuk in a keeper league and could only come up with Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin. Given what Kovalchuk did last year with almost no help I HAD to rank him fourth, especially now that he has Antropov, a nice complementary player. It's nice to see I'm not the only one who feels that strongly about Kovy. |
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